NFL Player Props and Best Projections

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.2% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Right now, the 10th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (58.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Rams.. The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.50 seconds per snap.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.. The model projects Matthew Stafford to throw 38.5 passes in this contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all quarterbacks.

The Philadelphia Eagles may throw the ball less in this week's game (and call more carries) since they be forced to start backup QB Tanner McKee.. A passing game script is indicated by the Eagles being a -4-point underdog in this game.. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 134.6 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in football vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year (73.7% Adjusted Completion%).. The Cowboys cornerbacks grade out as the worst CB corps in the league this year in defending receivers.

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.. The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.50 seconds per snap.. Matthew Stafford's ground effectiveness (6.28 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (78th percentile when it comes to QBs).. This year, the daunting Las Vegas Raiders run defense has surrendered a puny 4.72 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's rushing attack: the 25th-smallest rate in the league.. The Las Vegas defensive ends profile as the worst unit in football this year with their run defense.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 130.4 total plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.. The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a whopping 63.5 per game on average).. Opposing offenses have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the league (132 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense this year.. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Denver's group of safeties has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

The model projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-most run-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 40.2% run rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 134.2 plays on offense called: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The Saints have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 61.7 plays per game.

A running game script is implied by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 136.4 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week.. The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a whopping 61.8 per game on average).

A throwing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Colts to pass on 61.6% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest rate on the slate this week.. The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Colts this year (a staggering 62.2 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Daniel Jones has attempted 38.4 passes per game this year, ranking in the 77th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.

At the present time, the 2nd-most run-focused offense in the league (42.6% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks to run on 42.9% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Colts to pass on 61.6% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest rate on the slate this week.. The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Colts this year (a staggering 62.2 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Our trusted projections expect Keenan Allen to notch 9.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 130.4 total plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.. The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a whopping 63.5 per game on average).. While Tyler Allgeier has garnered 35.8% of his offense's run game usage in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Arizona's running game in this game at 48.5%.. Opposing offenses have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the league (132 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense this year.. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Denver's group of safeties has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Colts this year (a staggering 62.2 per game on average).

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan.. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a staggering 58.8 per game on average).. The opposing side have run for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the NFL (152 per game) vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year.. The New Orleans defensive tackles project as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Jets, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to run on 45.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.. Opposing squads have run for the 6th-most adjusted yards in football (134 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 134.6 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The opposing side have run for the most adjusted yards in the league (159 per game) vs. the Cowboys defense this year.

The Texans are an enormous 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 132.0 plays on offense run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. The Giants defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 5.69 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 66.0% of their downs: the 2nd-highest rate on the slate this week.. At the moment, the 4th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (61.9% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Cincinnati Bengals.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In this contest, Joe Burrow is expected by the model to wind up with the 3rd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 39.0. . Joe Burrow checks in as one of the most on-target QBs in the NFL this year with an excellent 71.5% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 136.4 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week.. The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a whopping 61.8 per game on average).. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.. Jared Goff's 295.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season marks a remarkable gain in his throwing talent over last season's 239.0 rate.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing QBs have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 7th-most in football.. The Falcons offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.. This year, the poor 49ers defense has allowed a staggering 73.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-largest rate in the league.. This year, the feeble San Francisco 49ers defense has been torched for the 10th-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing squads: a whopping 4.62 YAC.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 66.0% of their downs: the 2nd-highest rate on the slate this week.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In this contest, Joe Burrow is expected by the model to wind up with the 3rd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 39.0. . Joe Burrow has thrown for significantly more adjusted yards per game (283.0) this year than he did last year (196.0).. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year (72.9% Adjusted Completion%).

A running game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 4-point favorite in this week's contest.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Cowboys are predicted by the projection model to run 67.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.

This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 132.6 plays on offense called: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The Saints have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 61.7 plays per game.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.

A passing game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a -3-point underdog this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 39.6 pass attempts per game versus the Panthers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.. In this week's game, Chris Godwin Jr. is forecasted by the predictive model to place in the 80th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.7 targets.. While Chris Godwin Jr. has been responsible for 15.4% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Tampa Bay's pass game this week at 23.0%.. Chris Godwin Jr.'s 80.4% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a material boost in his pass-catching skills over last year's 68.2% rate.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Cleveland Browns profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year.. When it comes to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Tennessee's group of DEs has been terrible this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

The Jets offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing game metrics across the board.. The Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (92%) vs. tight ends this year (92.0%).. The Dolphins pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency vs. TEs this year, conceding 9.89 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Miami's unit has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in football.

Joe Burrow's 14.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year indicates a substantial improvement in his rushing skills over last year's 5.0 rate.. Joe Burrow's 6.45 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year illustrates a noteworthy improvement in his running skills over last year's 3.53 rate.. The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends profile as the 8th-worst DE corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

A rushing game script is implied by the Broncos being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game.. Right now, the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (40.0% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Broncos.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see 130.4 total plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.. The predictive model expects J.K. Dobbins to total 16.1 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs.. This year, the anemic Cardinals run defense has given up a massive 127.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 9th-worst in football.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Colts to pass on 61.6% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest rate on the slate this week.. The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Colts this year (a staggering 62.2 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. While Will Mallory has accounted for 6.3% of his offense's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Indianapolis's passing offense this week at 12.0%.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Packers being a -3-point underdog in this game.. The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 67.1% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Opposing teams have averaged 45.4 pass attempts per game against the Lions defense this year: most in football.

The model projects the Browns as the 4th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 45.2% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. This year, the weak Titans run defense has been gouged for a colossal 128.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 8th-most in the league.. When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Tennessee's LB corps has been awful this year, projecting as the worst in the league. in the league.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 136.4 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week.. The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a whopping 61.8 per game on average).. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.. This year, the deficient Packers pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 7th-worst rate in the NFL.

This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 132.6 plays on offense called: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.. With an impressive 42.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (88th percentile) this year, Juwan Johnson ranks among the leading TE receiving threats in the league.. The Steelers pass defense has yielded the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.8%) versus TEs this year (78.8%).

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Minnesota O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.. This year, the shaky Indianapolis Colts defense has been torched for the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a staggering 8.80 yards.. The Indianapolis Colts defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.22 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 3rd-most in football.. The Indianapolis Colts safeties rank as the 4th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 132.5 plays on offense called: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The Saints have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 61.7 plays per game.. This year, the weak Steelers defense has allowed the 3rd-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing RBs: a monstrous 8.82 YAC.

The Philadelphia Eagles may throw the ball less in this week's game (and call more carries) since they be forced to start backup QB Tanner McKee.. A passing game script is indicated by the Eagles being a -4-point underdog in this game.. With a 64.3% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL has been the Eagles.. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 134.6 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in football vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year (73.7% Adjusted Completion%).

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 63.2% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 130.4 total plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.. The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a whopping 63.5 per game on average).. The Broncos defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (37.8 per game) this year.

A passing game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a -3-point underdog this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 39.6 pass attempts per game versus the Panthers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

A passing game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a -3-point underdog this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 39.6 pass attempts per game versus the Panthers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

Chase Brown has garnered 62.9% of his team's carries this year, placing him in the 91st percentile when it comes to RBs.. Chase Brown has generated 49.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (80th percentile).. The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends profile as the 7th-worst DE corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.3% of their downs: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.50 seconds per snap.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.. Matthew Stafford's 298.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year conveys a remarkable progression in his throwing talent over last year's 240.0 figure.. The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has displayed poor efficiency this year, giving up 8.25 adjusted yards-per-target: the 7th-most in football.

At the present time, the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Las Vegas Raiders.. The opposing side have run for the 4th-most adjusted yards in football (136 per game) versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.

The model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a staggering 58.8 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.. Pat Freiermuth's 71.4% Route Participation% this season illustrates an impressive boost in his passing game usage over last season's 55.7% mark.

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.0 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Giants have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.8 plays per game.

This game's line suggests a throwing game script for the Dolphins, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing QBs have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 7th-most in football.. Our trusted projections expect Drake London to garner 10.6 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.. Drake London's 74.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in the league: 97th percentile for wideouts.. Drake London's 80.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season indicates a substantial growth in his receiving skills over last season's 66.0 mark.