NFL Player Props and Best Projections

Opposing teams have played at the 9th-quickest pace in football (context-neutralized) against the San Francisco 49ers defense last year, averaging 28.36 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. The model projects Jake Tonges to be a more integral piece of his team's passing game near the goal line in this contest (14.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been last year (7.5% in games he has played).. Jake Tonges grades out as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, catching an outstanding 79.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 75th percentile.. With an excellent rate of 0.50 per game through the air (96th percentile), Jake Tonges has been among the top receiving TD-scorers in the league when it comes to tight ends last year.

The Titans are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.. Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 45.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Last year, the anemic Jets run defense has given up a whopping 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 2nd-worst in football.. The Jets defensive tackles rank as the 8th-worst unit in football last year with their run defense.

The Titans are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.. Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 45.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. While Tyjae Spears has received 24.7% of his team's carries in games he has played last year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Tennessee's run game in this week's game at 37.5%.. The Jets defensive tackles rank as the 8th-worst unit in football last year with their run defense.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see 131.2 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. In averaging a whopping 4.0 rush attempts per game last year, Patrick Mahomes stands among the top QBs in the league (82nd percentile) when talking about rushing usage.. Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to be involved in the run game, accounting for 17.1% of his offense's carries last year, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to QBs.. With a terrific tally of 23.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (85th percentile), Patrick Mahomes rates among the top running quarterbacks in the league last year.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense last year: 2nd-most in football.. Derrick Henry has posted a massive 1.0 air yards per game last year: 78th percentile among RBs. (This may not seem like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. With an excellent 7.6 adjusted yards per target (89th percentile) last year, Derrick Henry places as one of the top running backs in the pass game in the league.. The Colts pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing running backs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Houston Texans offense has played at the 10th-fastest tempo in football (context-neutralized) last year, averaging 28.18 seconds per snap.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects C.J. Stroud to throw 36.6 passes this week, on balance: the 5th-most among all QBs.. Last year, the deficient Bills defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing teams: a staggering 0.00 YAC.

The Houston Texans offense has played at the 10th-fastest tempo in football (context-neutralized) last year, averaging 28.18 seconds per snap.. C.J. Stroud's running efficiency (7.38 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league last year (97th percentile when it comes to QBs).. The Buffalo Bills defense has had the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing running games last year, yielding 5.20 adjusted yards-per-carry.

At a massive 30.36 seconds per snap, the Baltimore Ravens offense rates as the 3rd-most sluggish paced in football (adjusted for context) last year.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. Last year, the feeble Colts run defense has yielded a whopping 4.11 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 27th-largest rate in football.

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Last year, the feeble Atlanta Falcons run defense has given up a whopping 127.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 10th-most in football.

Our trusted projections expect the Jets to be the 6th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 45.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. With a terrific record of 2.56 yards-after-contact (90th percentile), Geno Smith ranks as one of the leading rushing QBs in the league last year.. The Tennessee Titans defense has had the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing run games last year, allowing 4.76 adjusted yards-per-carry.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Tennessee's unit has been very bad last year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In this game, Kyler Murray is anticipated by the projection model to average the 9th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.7. . Opposing offenses have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Packers defense last year: 10th-most in the NFL.. Last year, the poor Packers defense has been gouged for the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing squads: a monstrous 0.00 YAC.

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.5 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Josh Allen comes in as one of the leading passers in the league last year, averaging an exceptional 212.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.. Josh Allen profiles as one of the most on-target QBs in the league last year with an impressive 71.2% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.1. . Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football last year with an excellent 69.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (232.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense last year.. Last year, the feeble Buccaneers defense has been gouged for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing offenses: a colossal 0.00 YAC.

A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Opposing offenses have played at the 10th-quickest tempo in football (context-neutralized) against the Colts defense last year, averaging 28.48 seconds per snap.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a well-known pass funnel last year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (36.2 per game) last year.. Alec Pierce has run a route on 89.2% of his offense's dropbacks last year, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. While Jahmyr Gibbs has been responsible for 59.1% of his offense's run game usage in games he has played last year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Detroit's rushing attack in this week's game at 47.7%.. The New Orleans Saints defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks last year, allowing just 4.10 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 59.1% of their chances: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. In this game, Tua Tagovailoa is forecasted by the projection model to have the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.8. . Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.

The Cardinals have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL last year, averaging a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.

This week's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Browns, who are enormous -7-point underdogs.. At a mere 27.78 seconds per play, the Cleveland Browns offense has been the 3rd-quickest paced in the league (in a neutral context) last year.. Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense last year: most in the league.. Last year, the weak Jaguars defense has conceded the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing squads: a monstrous 0.00 YAC.

This week's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Browns, who are enormous -7-point underdogs.. At a mere 27.78 seconds per play, the Cleveland Browns offense has been the 3rd-quickest paced in the league (in a neutral context) last year.. Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense last year: most in the league.. Last year, the anemic Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded a monstrous 56.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 8th-most in football.. Last year, the poor Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a massive 0.00 YAC.

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 59.1% of their chances: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. In this game, Drake London is predicted by the projection model to position himself in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 10.0 targets.

The leading projections forecast the Eagles to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Eagles have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game results when facing more favorable weather this week.. With a high 84.6% Route Participation Rate (96th percentile) last year, Dallas Goedert has been among the TEs with the biggest workloads in the league.. Our trusted projections expect Dallas Goedert to earn 6.0 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.. Last year, the anemic Commanders defense has been gouged for the most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing tight ends: a monstrous 10.17 yards.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have 130.0 offensive plays called: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Dallas Cowboys last year (a colossal 60.6 per game on average).. The Dallas Cowboys have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.. Dak Prescott's rushing effectiveness (6.28 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL last year (83rd percentile when it comes to QBs).. Last year, the tough Giants run defense has allowed a meager 5.56 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing offenses: the 32nd-smallest rate in the NFL.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Green Bay Packers to pass on 59.3% of their plays: the 8th-greatest clip on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Jordan Love has attempted 29.1 passes per game last year, grading out in the 75th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.. Jordan Love rates as one of the best QBs in the NFL last year, averaging an exceptional 208.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.. The Minnesota Vikings defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the most in the league.

Opposing offenses have played at the 10th-quickest tempo in football (context-neutralized) against the Colts defense last year, averaging 28.48 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense last year: 2nd-most in football.. In this game, Mark Andrews is predicted by the model to rank in the 88th percentile among tight ends with 5.7 targets.. Mark Andrews has totaled a colossal 31.0 air yards per game last year: 82nd percentile among tight ends.. Mark Andrews has been in the 85th percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) with an impressive 35.8 figure last year.

The Cardinals have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL last year, averaging a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in the league last year, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.. While Charlie Kolar has accounted for 3.3% of his offense's targets in games he has played last year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Los Angeles's passing attack in this game at 9.0%.. Last year, the poor Arizona Cardinals defense has allowed a colossal 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 4th-most in the league.. Last year, the anemic Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded the most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing TEs: a staggering 0.00 YAC.

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Last year, the weak New England Patriots pass defense has given up a staggering 86.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 8th-highest rate in the league.. Last year, the shaky Patriots defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing RBs: a monstrous 0.00 YAC.

A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Opposing offenses have played at the 10th-quickest tempo in football (context-neutralized) against the Colts defense last year, averaging 28.48 seconds per snap.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a well-known pass funnel last year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (36.2 per game) last year.. With an exceptional total of 198.0 adjusted passing yards per game (75th percentile), Daniel Jones has been as one of the best QBs in football last year.

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a colossal 34.0 air yards per game last year: 83rd percentile among TEs.. The Buccaneers defense has surrendered the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (56.0) vs. TEs last year.. Last year, the anemic Buccaneers defense has been torched for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a monstrous 0.00 YAC.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of safeties has been dreadful last year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles grade out as the 5th-worst unit in the league last year in regard to run defense.

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Our trusted projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to garner 6.3 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to running backs.. With a high 17.8% Target% (97th percentile) last year, Jahmyr Gibbs has been as one of the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.. Jahmyr Gibbs has accumulated a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game last year: 90th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 59.1% of their chances: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. Kyle Pitts has run a route on 91.4% of his offense's passing plays last year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. While Joe Burrow has been responsible for 7.6% of his team's run game usage in games he has played last year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Cincinnati's run game this week at 12.6%.. The Tampa Bay defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL last year when it comes to defending the run.

Our trusted projections expect the Commanders as the 2nd-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 47.0% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles profile as the 7th-worst unit in football last year in regard to stopping the run.

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.. With a fantastic 86.6% Adjusted Completion% (99th percentile) last year, Malik Willis stands as one of the most on-target passers in the league.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in football vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense last year (73.2% Adjusted Completion%).. Last year, the weak Las Vegas Raiders defense has given up the most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to the opposing side: a massive 0.00 YAC.

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Our trusted projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn 10.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 32.9% last year, which places him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has accumulated a monstrous 85.0 air yards per game last year: 89th percentile when it comes to WRs.

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Michael Pittman has run a route on 89.1% of his team's dropbacks last year, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. In this contest, Michael Pittman is projected by the model to finish in the 89th percentile among wideouts with 7.6 targets.. Michael Pittman ranks in the 75th percentile among wideouts last year with an astounding 21.3% of his offense's air yards accumulated.

With a 7-point advantage, the Jaguars are heavily favored in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.. Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Browns, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.6 per game) last year.. Trevor Lawrence rates as one of the least accurate quarterbacks in football last year with a 60.5% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 16th percentile.. Last year, the daunting Browns defense has allowed a feeble 182.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 5th-fewest in football.. The Browns cornerbacks profile as the 8th-best collection of CBs in the league last year in defending pass-catchers.

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. In this week's game, Jared Goff is anticipated by the predictive model to wind up with the 4th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.0. . Jared Goff comes in as one of the leading quarterbacks in football last year, averaging a remarkable 237.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.. Jared Goff checks in as one of the most on-target passers in the league last year with an outstanding 66.9% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 75th percentile.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Green Bay Packers to pass on 59.3% of their plays: the 8th-greatest clip on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In this game, Christian Watson is predicted by the projections to place in the 85th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.1 targets.. As it relates to air yards, Christian Watson grades out in the towering 95th percentile among wide receivers last year, averaging a colossal 99.0 per game.. Christian Watson's 55.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 87th percentile for wideouts.

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Aaron Rodgers to throw 36.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Aaron Rodgers ranks as one of the most on-target passers in the league last year with an exceptional 66.9% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 75th percentile.. The Atlanta Falcons defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the most in football.

Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially inflated (and running stats reduced) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather in this game.. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, San Francisco's unit has been atrocious last year, grading out as the 4th-worst in football. in football.