LIVE 11:44 4th Nov 15
NE 10 2.5 o51.5
DET 28 -2.5 u51.5
KC -3.5 o47.5
ATL 3.5 u47.5
BUF -7.5 o50.5
NYJ 7.5 u50.5
MIA 4.5 o37.5
IND -4.5 u37.5
MIN 2.5 o42.5
GB -2.5 u42.5
CAR -1.5 o49.0
NO 1.5 u49.0
JAC -10.5 o45.5
TEN 10.5 u45.5
HOU -3.5 o41.0
CLE 3.5 u41.0
SEA -6.5 o41.0
LV 6.5 u41.0
LA -9.5 o38.0
ARI 9.5 u38.0
SF -3.5 o56.0
DAL 3.5 u56.0
PIT 3.5 o50.0
CIN -3.5 u50.0
LAC 4.5 o39.0
BAL -4.5 u39.0
Final Nov 12
WAS 24 1.5 o40.5
NYG 21 -1.5 u40.5
Los Angeles 4th AFC West0-8
Baltimore 4th AFC North4-5

Chargers vs Ravens   Picks & Props

LAC vs BAL Picks

NFL Picks
Total
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail u38.5 (-108)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

The Chargers are 0-8 ATS and 6-2 to the Under, with the league's worst scoring offense and Justin Herbert under constant pressure. Baltimore already plays slowly, and Jacoby Brissett under center could further limit tempo and explosive plays Monday night.

Moneyline
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail BAL (-194)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
Jon Metler logo
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst

I price Baltimore at 73%, making 65% an easy buy on Kalshi. The Chargers are 0-8, and their incentive to chase wins has to be questioned. With a roster better than its record suggests, taking a leap year and securing a top draft pick may be the smarter play.

Anytime Touchdown
Zay Flowers logo Zay Flowers Score a Touchdown (Yes: +178)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

Jacoby Brissett gets the Chargers for a second time this week, and after watching him pepper Michael Wilson with targets in Arizona, I'm hoping Zay Flowers gets similar treatment Monday night. Baltimore's No. 1 receiver is coming off a brutal outing, managing just six yards on seven targets in one of the worst passing performances of the season. I'm expecting a much better connection with Brissett under center, who offers a more reliable passing option. Flowers is available at 2.7x to score, well above the 2.15x price we've seen earlier this season, and I'd buy to 2.55x. I'll gladly take the Brissett-Wilson treatment with a much better pass-catcher in Flowers.

Receptions Made
Mark Andrews logo Mark Andrews o2.5 Receptions Made (-121)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

During his time in Arizona, Brissett had an elite option at tight end in Trey McBride, who leads the team in targets entering Week 10. McBridge also tops all TEs in routes run this season. Andrews has drawn four or more targets in three of the five games since Lamar Jackson was injured/re-injured and his Week 10 projections sit north of three catches. My MNF forecast has Andrews tabbed for 3+ receptions versus Los Angeles.

Rushing Yards
Derrick Henry logo Derrick Henry o74.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Henry put the offense on his back facing an Chargers defense that’s allowed 4.7 yards per carry over their last three outings, dropping to 26th in EPA allowed per handoff since Week 6. Henry’s rushing yard total is a bit tempered due to negative game scripts facing the Ravens in recent weeks. Our models says 94 yards and isn’t the only projections bullish on Baltimore’s running back. All models consulted sit above 75 with a ceiling of 116 yards on MNF. 

Rushing Yards
Derrick Henry logo Derrick Henry o79.5 Rushing Yards (+104)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

Derrick Henry projects for 94 rushing yards on more than 20 carries Monday night, and I expect his total to climb heading into kickoff. I'd confidently play him to reach 80+ yards at up to 55%. Jacoby Brissett has admitted he's on a "crash course" with the offense, which should lead to a simplified playbook and heavier reliance on the run. Baltimore also faces a Chargers offense that's last in scoring, struggling in the red zone and allowing the second-most sacks per game. With LA's offensive line potentially making changes and the Chargers ranking 26th in rush defense by EPA per carry since Week 5, this sets up nicely for a heavy Henry workload.

Rush and Rec Yards
Kimani Vidal logo Kimani Vidal o30.5 Rush and Rec Yards (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 39 minutes ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Vidal has overtaken Keaton Mitchell as the RB2 on the depth chart and given the way Omarion Hampton has belly flopped, Vidal drew almost an equal snap share in Week 9. Vidal is a weapon to run or receive and has posted 30+ combined yards in five straight games, with those gains coming against much stronger stop units than Baltimore. His Week 10 forecasts range from 29.8 combined yards to a ceiling of 46 yards, with the majority at 33.5 or higher. My projection for Vidal sits just shy of 39 rush/receiving yards on Monday. 

Game Prop
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail u22.5 Team Total (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Joe Osborne logo
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst

Baltimore's offense has been an absolute disaster, scoring 13 points or fewer in four consecutive games. Jacoby Brissett might provide a spark at quarterback, but we're talking about a guy who was just benched against Dallas and is now trying to learn a new offense on the fly. That's not exactly a recipe for an offensive explosion.

3 LEG PARLAY
Derrick Henry profile picture
Derrick Henry Score a Touchdown (Yes)
Anytime Touchdown
Omarion Hampton profile picture
Omarion Hampton o29.5 Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
u38.5
Total
Bet now
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

Derrick Henry's anytime TD is +EV at the current 53% probability, with a fair price of 55%. If the Ravens get into the red zone, I don't expect them to get cute with a new QB under center. It'll be hand the ball to Henry three straight times, eat the clock, and control the game. Omarion Hampton's rushing Over is also +EV, with a projection of 53 yards. Hampton led the backfield with 13 carries last week in a blowout loss, while Keaton Mitchell's fumble could eat into his 25% workload. Pairing the TD prop with Under 38.5 boosts the overall price. This has the makings of a slow, run-first game, with the pressure on Justin Herbert and the Chargers' struggling offensive line potentially putting their offense behind the sticks all night.

Passing Yards
Jacoby Brissett logo
Jacoby Brissett u216.5 Passing Yards (-120) Projection 192.42 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
With a 4-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.3% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have just 125.3 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.2 per game) this year.
Passing Yards
Justin Herbert logo
Justin Herbert u203.5 Passing Yards (-115) Projection 192.76 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 53.1% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to attempt 30.2 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. Justin Herbert's 168.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a noteworthy drop-off in his passing talent over last season's 212.0 rate.. The Ravens defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.12 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-fewest in football.
Rushing Yards
Jacoby Brissett logo
Jacoby Brissett o5.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Projection 13.40 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 48.6% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Rushing Yards
Omarion Hampton logo
Omarion Hampton o32.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Projection 53.12 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chargers to run on 46.9% of their chances: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).
Rushing Yards
Derrick Henry logo
Derrick Henry o79.5 Rushing Yards (-113) Projection 94.17 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 48.6% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's contest, Derrick Henry is forecasted by the projection model to land in the 100th percentile among running backs with 22.5 carries.. Among all RBs, Derrick Henry ranks in the 98th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 72.3% of the workload in his offense's run game.
Rushing Yards
Justin Herbert logo
Justin Herbert o21.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Projection 26.51 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chargers to run on 46.8% of their chances: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).. In this contest, Justin Herbert is forecasted by the predictive model to accrue the 6th-most rush attempts among all QBs with 4.7. . Justin Herbert isn't afraid to take off running, taking on 15.5% of his team's carries this year, putting him in the 81st percentile among QBs.. Justin Herbert ranks as one of the best quarterbacks in the league at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging an exceptional 3.18 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 100th percentile.
Receiving Yards
Mark Andrews logo
Mark Andrews o21.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Projection 31.36 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The predictive model expects Mark Andrews to garner 5.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.. Mark Andrews has been a key part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 18.8% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among TEs.. In regards to air yards, Mark Andrews grades out in the lofty 83rd percentile among TEs this year, averaging a staggering 32.0 per game.. Mark Andrews's 2.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a substantial improvement in his effectiveness in space over last season's 0.0% mark.
Receiving Yards
Derrick Henry logo
Derrick Henry o5.5 Receiving Yards (-114) Projection 9.27 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Derrick Henry's 92.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year marks a noteworthy progression in his receiving skills over last year's 78.9% rate.. Derrick Henry's talent in grinding out extra yardage have improved this season, notching 9.42 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 0.00 rate last season.
Receiving Yards
Omarion Hampton logo
Omarion Hampton o4.5 Receiving Yards (-116) Projection 8.11 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating Star rating: 5 out of 5
A passing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a -4.5-point underdog this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.
Receiving Yards
Zay Flowers logo
Zay Flowers o69.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Projection 69.63 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.. In this contest, Zay Flowers is predicted by the predictive model to find himself in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 8.9 targets.. Zay Flowers comes in as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 60.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.. Zay Flowers's 7.49 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season signifies a meaningful progression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season's 0.0% figure.

LAC vs BAL Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

51% picking L.A. Chargers

51%
49%

Total Picks LAC 408, BAL 396

Spread
LAC
BAL
Total

53% picking L.A. Chargers vs Baltimore to go Under

47%
53%

Total PicksLAC 239, BAL 273

Total
Over
Under

LAC vs BAL Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
LAC +4.5 spread
3.30 PROJECTION
-1.2 DIFFERENCE
8.29% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
LAC +4.5 spread

PROJECTION

3.30 PROJECTION
-1.2 DIFFERENCE
8.29% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+4.5 -108
DraftKings logo
TOTAL
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
Over 38.5 Total
41.50 OVER PROJECTION
+3.0 DIFFERENCE
17.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
Over 38.5 Total

PROJECTION

41.50 OVER PROJECTION
+3.0 DIFFERENCE
17.04% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o38.5 -113
bet365 logo
PASSING YARDS
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) u216.5 Passing Yards
192.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-24.1 DIFFERENCE
25.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) u216.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

192.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-24.1 DIFFERENCE
25.56% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.3% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have just 125.3 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.2 per game) this year.

u216.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet logo
PASSING YARDS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u203.5 Passing Yards
192.76 UNDER PROJECTION
-10.7 DIFFERENCE
22.02% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u203.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

192.76 UNDER PROJECTION
-10.7 DIFFERENCE
22.02% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 53.1% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to attempt 30.2 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. Justin Herbert's 168.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a noteworthy drop-off in his passing talent over last season's 212.0 rate.. The Ravens defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.12 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-fewest in football.

u207.5 -113
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) o5.5 Rushing Yards
13.40 OVER PROJECTION
+7.9 DIFFERENCE
26.48% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) o5.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

13.40 OVER PROJECTION
+7.9 DIFFERENCE
26.48% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 48.6% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

o5.5 -110
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o32.5 Rushing Yards
53.12 OVER PROJECTION
+20.6 DIFFERENCE
26.4% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o32.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

53.12 OVER PROJECTION
+20.6 DIFFERENCE
26.4% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chargers to run on 46.9% of their chances: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).

o31.5 -114
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) o79.5 Rushing Yards
94.17 OVER PROJECTION
+14.7 DIFFERENCE
26.28% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) o79.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

94.17 OVER PROJECTION
+14.7 DIFFERENCE
26.28% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 48.6% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's contest, Derrick Henry is forecasted by the projection model to land in the 100th percentile among running backs with 22.5 carries.. Among all RBs, Derrick Henry ranks in the 98th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 72.3% of the workload in his offense's run game.

o77.5 -117
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o21.5 Rushing Yards
26.51 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
22.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o21.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

26.51 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
22.96% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chargers to run on 46.8% of their chances: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).. In this contest, Justin Herbert is forecasted by the predictive model to accrue the 6th-most rush attempts among all QBs with 4.7. . Justin Herbert isn't afraid to take off running, taking on 15.5% of his team's carries this year, putting him in the 81st percentile among QBs.. Justin Herbert ranks as one of the best quarterbacks in the league at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging an exceptional 3.18 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 100th percentile.

o19.5 -114
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Mark Andrews logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
M. Andrews (TE) o21.5 Receiving Yards
31.36 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
26.05% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Mark Andrews logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
M. Andrews (TE) o21.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

31.36 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
26.05% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The predictive model expects Mark Andrews to garner 5.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.. Mark Andrews has been a key part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 18.8% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among TEs.. In regards to air yards, Mark Andrews grades out in the lofty 83rd percentile among TEs this year, averaging a staggering 32.0 per game.. Mark Andrews's 2.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a substantial improvement in his effectiveness in space over last season's 0.0% mark.

o20.5 -121
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) o5.5 Receiving Yards
9.27 OVER PROJECTION
+3.8 DIFFERENCE
25.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) o5.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

9.27 OVER PROJECTION
+3.8 DIFFERENCE
25.57% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Derrick Henry's 92.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year marks a noteworthy progression in his receiving skills over last year's 78.9% rate.. Derrick Henry's talent in grinding out extra yardage have improved this season, notching 9.42 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 0.00 rate last season.

o5.5 -113
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o4.5 Receiving Yards
8.11 OVER PROJECTION
+3.6 DIFFERENCE
24.86% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o4.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

8.11 OVER PROJECTION
+3.6 DIFFERENCE
24.86% EV

ANALYSIS

A passing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a -4.5-point underdog this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.

o4.5 -110
Caesars Odds logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Zay Flowers logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
Z. Flowers (WR) o69.5 Receiving Yards
69.63 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
19.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Zay Flowers logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
Z. Flowers (WR) o69.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

69.63 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
19.15% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.. In this contest, Zay Flowers is predicted by the predictive model to find himself in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 8.9 targets.. Zay Flowers comes in as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 60.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.. Zay Flowers's 7.49 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season signifies a meaningful progression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season's 0.0% figure.

o69.5 -113
Caesars Odds logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Mark Andrews logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
M. Andrews (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
3.50 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
16.63% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Mark Andrews logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
M. Andrews (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.50 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
16.63% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The predictive model expects Mark Andrews to garner 5.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.. Mark Andrews has been a key part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 18.8% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among TEs.. Mark Andrews checks in as one of the best TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 3.1 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.. The Chargers pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (77.7%) to tight ends this year (77.7%).

o2.5 -121
BetRivers logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) u1.5 Receptions Made
1.20 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-1.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) u1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.20 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-1.06% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have just 125.3 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.2 per game) this year.

u1.5 -205
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) u1.5 Receptions Made
1.24 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) u1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.24 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.68% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 53.1% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year.. When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Baltimore's unit has been very good this year, projecting as the 9th-best in the NFL.

u1.5 -182
FanDuel logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Zay Flowers logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
Z. Flowers (WR) o5.5 Receptions Made
5.55 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-11.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Zay Flowers logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
Z. Flowers (WR) o5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.55 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-11.38% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.. In this contest, Zay Flowers is predicted by the predictive model to find himself in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 8.9 targets.. With a remarkable 4.7 adjusted receptions per game (89th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers stands among the top wide receivers in the NFL in football.. This year, the deficient Chargers pass defense has been torched for a staggering 71.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 4th-largest rate in the NFL.

o5.5 -113
BetRivers logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o10.5 Rushing Attempts
12.55 OVER PROJECTION
+2.1 DIFFERENCE
18.53% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o10.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

12.55 OVER PROJECTION
+2.1 DIFFERENCE
18.53% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chargers to run on 46.9% of their chances: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).

o10.5 -115
theScore Bet logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) o18.5 Rushing Attempts
20.30 OVER PROJECTION
+1.8 DIFFERENCE
14.11% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) o18.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

20.30 OVER PROJECTION
+1.8 DIFFERENCE
14.11% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 48.6% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's contest, Derrick Henry is forecasted by the projection model to land in the 100th percentile among running backs with 22.5 carries.. Among all RBs, Derrick Henry ranks in the 98th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 72.3% of the workload in his offense's run game.

o18.5 -117
Caesars Odds logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o4.5 Rushing Attempts
4.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-22.36% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o4.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

4.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-22.36% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chargers to run on 46.6% of their chances: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).. In this contest, Justin Herbert is forecasted by the predictive model to accrue the 7th-most rush attempts among all QBs with 4.6. . Justin Herbert isn't afraid to take off running, taking on 15.5% of his team's carries this year, putting him in the 81st percentile among QBs.

o4.5 -130
BetRivers logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) u32.5 Passing Attempts
28.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.1 DIFFERENCE
21.36% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) u32.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

28.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.1 DIFFERENCE
21.36% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have just 125.3 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.2 per game) this year.

u32.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u30.5 Passing Attempts
28.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.1 DIFFERENCE
16.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u30.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

28.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.1 DIFFERENCE
16.39% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 53.2% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to attempt 30.3 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

u30.5 -103
DraftKings logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) u20.5 Passing Completions
18.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.2 DIFFERENCE
15.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) u20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

18.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.2 DIFFERENCE
15.83% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have just 125.3 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.2 per game) this year.

u20.5 -130
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u19.5 Passing Completions
18.04 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.5 DIFFERENCE
15.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u19.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

18.04 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.5 DIFFERENCE
15.83% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 52.7% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to attempt 29.9 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year.. Justin Herbert's 60.7% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a significant decrease in his throwing precision over last season's 64.7% mark.

u19.5 -117
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.78 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.78 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.14% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.. Derrick Henry's 92.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year marks a noteworthy progression in his receiving skills over last year's 78.9% rate.. Derrick Henry grades out in the 78th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an exceptional 0.10 per game.. The Chargers safeties rank as the 6th-best safety corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

-140
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.15 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.15 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.98% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.. 0: the number of touchdowns on the ground Jacoby Brissett has scored this year.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the league vs. the Chargers defense this year (72.4% Adjusted Completion%).. The Chargers safeties rank as the 6th-best safety corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

+775
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Ladd McConkey logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
L. McConkey (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.21 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Ladd McConkey logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
L. McConkey (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.21 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.83% EV

ANALYSIS

A passing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a -4.5-point underdog this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Baltimore's collection of DTs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 5th-best in the league.

+340
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Mark Andrews logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
M. Andrews (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
10.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Mark Andrews logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
M. Andrews (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
10.32% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.. With an impressive 24.2% Red Zone Target Share (95th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews has been as one of the tight ends with the highest volume near the end zone in the NFL.. In regards to air yards, Mark Andrews grades out in the lofty 83rd percentile among TEs this year, averaging a staggering 32.0 per game.. Mark Andrews ranks in the 90th percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) with a superb 39.6 figure this year.

+370
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.27 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
7.09% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.27 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
7.09% EV

ANALYSIS

A passing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a -4.5-point underdog this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Baltimore's collection of DTs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 5th-best in the league.

+320
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Zay Flowers logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
Z. Flowers (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.39 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-1.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Zay Flowers logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
Z. Flowers (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.39 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-1.01% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.. Zay Flowers slots into the 90th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) with a superb 66.6 mark this year.. With a fantastic ratio of 0.33 per game through the air (82nd percentile), Zay Flowers places among the best receiving touchdown-scorers in the league among WRs this year.. This year, the weak Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up a massive 1.38 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing wideouts: the worst rate in the league.

+161
Caesars Odds logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.15 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.15 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.68% EV

ANALYSIS

A passing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a -4.5-point underdog this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.. The rushing touchdown column reads "0" on the back of Justin Herbert's trading card this year.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Baltimore's collection of DTs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 5th-best in the league.

+575
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
22.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
22.1% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 53.1% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to attempt 30.2 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year.. When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Baltimore's unit has been very good this year, projecting as the 9th-best in the NFL.

u0.5 +130
BetRivers logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.39 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
17.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.39 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
17.69% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have just 125.3 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.2 per game) this year.

u0.5 -115
bet365 logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
LAC +4.5 spread
3.30 PROJECTION
-1.2 DIFFERENCE
8.29% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
LAC +4.5 spread

PROJECTION

3.30 PROJECTION
-1.2 DIFFERENCE
8.29% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+4.5 -108
DraftKings logo
TOTAL
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
Over 38.5 Total
41.50 OVER PROJECTION
+3.0 DIFFERENCE
17.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
Over 38.5 Total

PROJECTION

41.50 OVER PROJECTION
+3.0 DIFFERENCE
17.04% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o38.5 -113
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PASSING YARDS
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) u216.5 Passing Yards
192.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-24.1 DIFFERENCE
25.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) u216.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

192.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-24.1 DIFFERENCE
25.56% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.3% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have just 125.3 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.2 per game) this year.

u216.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet logo
PASSING YARDS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u203.5 Passing Yards
192.76 UNDER PROJECTION
-10.7 DIFFERENCE
22.02% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u203.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

192.76 UNDER PROJECTION
-10.7 DIFFERENCE
22.02% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 53.1% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to attempt 30.2 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. Justin Herbert's 168.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a noteworthy drop-off in his passing talent over last season's 212.0 rate.. The Ravens defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.12 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-fewest in football.

u207.5 -113
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) o5.5 Rushing Yards
13.40 OVER PROJECTION
+7.9 DIFFERENCE
26.48% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) o5.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

13.40 OVER PROJECTION
+7.9 DIFFERENCE
26.48% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 48.6% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

o5.5 -110
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o32.5 Rushing Yards
53.12 OVER PROJECTION
+20.6 DIFFERENCE
26.4% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o32.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

53.12 OVER PROJECTION
+20.6 DIFFERENCE
26.4% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chargers to run on 46.9% of their chances: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).

o31.5 -114
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) o79.5 Rushing Yards
94.17 OVER PROJECTION
+14.7 DIFFERENCE
26.28% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) o79.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

94.17 OVER PROJECTION
+14.7 DIFFERENCE
26.28% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 48.6% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's contest, Derrick Henry is forecasted by the projection model to land in the 100th percentile among running backs with 22.5 carries.. Among all RBs, Derrick Henry ranks in the 98th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 72.3% of the workload in his offense's run game.

o77.5 -117
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o21.5 Rushing Yards
26.51 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
22.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o21.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

26.51 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
22.96% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chargers to run on 46.8% of their chances: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).. In this contest, Justin Herbert is forecasted by the predictive model to accrue the 6th-most rush attempts among all QBs with 4.7. . Justin Herbert isn't afraid to take off running, taking on 15.5% of his team's carries this year, putting him in the 81st percentile among QBs.. Justin Herbert ranks as one of the best quarterbacks in the league at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging an exceptional 3.18 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 100th percentile.

o19.5 -114
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Mark Andrews logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
M. Andrews (TE) o21.5 Receiving Yards
31.36 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
26.05% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Mark Andrews logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
M. Andrews (TE) o21.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

31.36 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
26.05% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The predictive model expects Mark Andrews to garner 5.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.. Mark Andrews has been a key part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 18.8% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among TEs.. In regards to air yards, Mark Andrews grades out in the lofty 83rd percentile among TEs this year, averaging a staggering 32.0 per game.. Mark Andrews's 2.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a substantial improvement in his effectiveness in space over last season's 0.0% mark.

o20.5 -121
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) o5.5 Receiving Yards
9.27 OVER PROJECTION
+3.8 DIFFERENCE
25.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) o5.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

9.27 OVER PROJECTION
+3.8 DIFFERENCE
25.57% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Derrick Henry's 92.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year marks a noteworthy progression in his receiving skills over last year's 78.9% rate.. Derrick Henry's talent in grinding out extra yardage have improved this season, notching 9.42 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 0.00 rate last season.

o5.5 -113
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o4.5 Receiving Yards
8.11 OVER PROJECTION
+3.6 DIFFERENCE
24.86% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o4.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

8.11 OVER PROJECTION
+3.6 DIFFERENCE
24.86% EV

ANALYSIS

A passing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a -4.5-point underdog this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.

o4.5 -110
Caesars Odds logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Zay Flowers logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
Z. Flowers (WR) o69.5 Receiving Yards
69.63 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
19.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Zay Flowers logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
Z. Flowers (WR) o69.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

69.63 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
19.15% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.. In this contest, Zay Flowers is predicted by the predictive model to find himself in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 8.9 targets.. Zay Flowers comes in as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 60.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.. Zay Flowers's 7.49 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season signifies a meaningful progression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season's 0.0% figure.

o69.5 -113
Caesars Odds logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Mark Andrews logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
M. Andrews (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
3.50 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
16.63% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Mark Andrews logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
M. Andrews (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.50 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
16.63% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The predictive model expects Mark Andrews to garner 5.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.. Mark Andrews has been a key part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 18.8% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among TEs.. Mark Andrews checks in as one of the best TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 3.1 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.. The Chargers pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (77.7%) to tight ends this year (77.7%).

o2.5 -121
BetRivers logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) u1.5 Receptions Made
1.20 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-1.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) u1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.20 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-1.06% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have just 125.3 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.2 per game) this year.

u1.5 -205
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) u1.5 Receptions Made
1.24 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) u1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.24 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-3.68% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 53.1% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year.. When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Baltimore's unit has been very good this year, projecting as the 9th-best in the NFL.

u1.5 -182
FanDuel logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Zay Flowers logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
Z. Flowers (WR) o5.5 Receptions Made
5.55 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-11.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Zay Flowers logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
Z. Flowers (WR) o5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.55 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-11.38% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.. In this contest, Zay Flowers is predicted by the predictive model to find himself in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 8.9 targets.. With a remarkable 4.7 adjusted receptions per game (89th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers stands among the top wide receivers in the NFL in football.. This year, the deficient Chargers pass defense has been torched for a staggering 71.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 4th-largest rate in the NFL.

o5.5 -113
BetRivers logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o10.5 Rushing Attempts
12.55 OVER PROJECTION
+2.1 DIFFERENCE
18.53% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) o10.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

12.55 OVER PROJECTION
+2.1 DIFFERENCE
18.53% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chargers to run on 46.9% of their chances: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).

o10.5 -115
theScore Bet logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) o18.5 Rushing Attempts
20.30 OVER PROJECTION
+1.8 DIFFERENCE
14.11% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) o18.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

20.30 OVER PROJECTION
+1.8 DIFFERENCE
14.11% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 48.6% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's contest, Derrick Henry is forecasted by the projection model to land in the 100th percentile among running backs with 22.5 carries.. Among all RBs, Derrick Henry ranks in the 98th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 72.3% of the workload in his offense's run game.

o18.5 -117
Caesars Odds logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o4.5 Rushing Attempts
4.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-22.36% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) o4.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

4.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-22.36% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chargers to run on 46.6% of their chances: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).. In this contest, Justin Herbert is forecasted by the predictive model to accrue the 7th-most rush attempts among all QBs with 4.6. . Justin Herbert isn't afraid to take off running, taking on 15.5% of his team's carries this year, putting him in the 81st percentile among QBs.

o4.5 -130
BetRivers logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) u32.5 Passing Attempts
28.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.1 DIFFERENCE
21.36% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) u32.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

28.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.1 DIFFERENCE
21.36% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have just 125.3 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.2 per game) this year.

u32.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u30.5 Passing Attempts
28.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.1 DIFFERENCE
16.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u30.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

28.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.1 DIFFERENCE
16.39% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 53.2% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to attempt 30.3 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

u30.5 -103
DraftKings logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) u20.5 Passing Completions
18.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.2 DIFFERENCE
15.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) u20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

18.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.2 DIFFERENCE
15.83% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have just 125.3 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.2 per game) this year.

u20.5 -130
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u19.5 Passing Completions
18.04 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.5 DIFFERENCE
15.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u19.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

18.04 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.5 DIFFERENCE
15.83% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 52.7% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to attempt 29.9 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year.. Justin Herbert's 60.7% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a significant decrease in his throwing precision over last season's 64.7% mark.

u19.5 -117
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.78 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Derrick Henry logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
D. Henry (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.78 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.14% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.. Derrick Henry's 92.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year marks a noteworthy progression in his receiving skills over last year's 78.9% rate.. Derrick Henry grades out in the 78th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an exceptional 0.10 per game.. The Chargers safeties rank as the 6th-best safety corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

-140
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.15 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.15 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.98% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.. 0: the number of touchdowns on the ground Jacoby Brissett has scored this year.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the league vs. the Chargers defense this year (72.4% Adjusted Completion%).. The Chargers safeties rank as the 6th-best safety corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

+775
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Ladd McConkey logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
L. McConkey (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.21 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Ladd McConkey logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
L. McConkey (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.21 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.83% EV

ANALYSIS

A passing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a -4.5-point underdog this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Baltimore's collection of DTs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 5th-best in the league.

+340
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Mark Andrews logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
M. Andrews (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
10.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Mark Andrews logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
M. Andrews (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
10.32% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.. With an impressive 24.2% Red Zone Target Share (95th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews has been as one of the tight ends with the highest volume near the end zone in the NFL.. In regards to air yards, Mark Andrews grades out in the lofty 83rd percentile among TEs this year, averaging a staggering 32.0 per game.. Mark Andrews ranks in the 90th percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) with a superb 39.6 figure this year.

+370
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.27 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
7.09% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Omarion Hampton logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
O. Hampton (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.27 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
7.09% EV

ANALYSIS

A passing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a -4.5-point underdog this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Baltimore's collection of DTs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 5th-best in the league.

+320
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Zay Flowers logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
Z. Flowers (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.39 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-1.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Zay Flowers logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
Z. Flowers (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.39 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-1.01% EV

ANALYSIS

The Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.. Zay Flowers slots into the 90th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) with a superb 66.6 mark this year.. With a fantastic ratio of 0.33 per game through the air (82nd percentile), Zay Flowers places among the best receiving touchdown-scorers in the league among WRs this year.. This year, the weak Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up a massive 1.38 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing wideouts: the worst rate in the league.

+161
Caesars Odds logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.15 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.15 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.68% EV

ANALYSIS

A passing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a -4.5-point underdog this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.. The rushing touchdown column reads "0" on the back of Justin Herbert's trading card this year.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Baltimore's collection of DTs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 5th-best in the league.

+575
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
22.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Justin Herbert logo
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail
J. Herbert (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
22.1% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 53.1% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to attempt 30.2 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year.. When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Baltimore's unit has been very good this year, projecting as the 9th-best in the NFL.

u0.5 +130
BetRivers logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.39 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
17.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jacoby Brissett logo
Baltimore Ravens image thumbnail
J. Brissett (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.39 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
17.69% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have just 125.3 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.2 per game) this year.

u0.5 -115
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LAC vs BAL Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

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'dashow69' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+5.5)

dashow69 is #1 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +5000 units on the season.

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'boedad' picks L.A. Chargers vs Baltimore to go Over (38.5)

boedad is #10 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +4300 units on the season.

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Under
Total

'ChiTownSteppers' picks L.A. Chargers vs Baltimore to go Under (38.5)

ChiTownSteppers is #10 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (4-3-0) and +4350 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
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'ChiTownSteppers' is picking Baltimore to cover (-5.5)

ChiTownSteppers is #10 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (4-3-0) and +4350 units on the season.

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'boedad' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+5.5)

boedad is #10 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +4300 units on the season.

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'kenpitch' is picking Baltimore to cover (-5.5)

kenpitch is #2 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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BAL
Total

'kenpitch' picks L.A. Chargers vs Baltimore to go Over (38.5)

kenpitch is #2 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total

'muna624' picks L.A. Chargers vs Baltimore to go Under (38.5)

muna624 is #2 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (5-1-0) and +5950 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'muna624' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+5.5)

muna624 is #2 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (5-1-0) and +5950 units on the season.

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LAC
BAL
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'ASkinsFanInDixi' is picking Baltimore to cover (-2.5)

ASkinsFanInDixi is #3 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (6-2-0) and +5900 units on the season.

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'ASkinsFanInDixi' picks L.A. Chargers vs Baltimore to go Over (38.5)

ASkinsFanInDixi is #3 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (6-2-0) and +5900 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total

'sportsdool1123' picks L.A. Chargers vs Baltimore to go Under (38.5)

sportsdool1123 is #3 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'sportsdool1123' is picking Baltimore to cover (-5.5)

sportsdool1123 is #3 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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LAC
BAL
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'Octavio' is picking Baltimore to cover (-5.5)

Octavio is #4 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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LAC
BAL
Total

'Octavio' picks L.A. Chargers vs Baltimore to go Under (38.5)

Octavio is #4 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'BillyJack' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (-1.5)

BillyJack is #5 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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LAC
BAL
Total

'BillyJack' picks L.A. Chargers vs Baltimore to go Over (37.5)

BillyJack is #5 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total

'minus110' picks L.A. Chargers vs Baltimore to go Over (38.5)

minus110 is #5 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'minus110' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+5.5)

minus110 is #5 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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LAC
BAL
Total

'bigsmoke21169' picks L.A. Chargers vs Baltimore to go Under (38.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #6 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'bigsmoke21169' is picking Baltimore to cover (-1.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #6 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

Spread
LAC
BAL
Total

'tkeeton' picks L.A. Chargers vs Baltimore to go Under (38.5)

tkeeton is #6 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'tkeeton' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+5.5)

tkeeton is #6 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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'Sandsaver727' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+2.5)

Sandsaver727 is #7 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (7-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

Spread
LAC
BAL
Total

'Sandsaver727' picks L.A. Chargers vs Baltimore to go Under (38.5)

Sandsaver727 is #7 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (7-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total

'gerschefske7' picks L.A. Chargers vs Baltimore to go Under (38.5)

gerschefske7 is #8 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'gerschefske7' is picking Baltimore to cover (-5.5)

gerschefske7 is #8 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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