Chargers vs Ravens Picks & Props
LAC vs BAL Picks
NFL PicksThe Chargers are 0-8 ATS and 6-2 to the Under, with the league's worst scoring offense and Justin Herbert under constant pressure. Baltimore already plays slowly, and Jacoby Brissett under center could further limit tempo and explosive plays Monday night.
I price Baltimore at 73%, making 65% an easy buy on Kalshi. The Chargers are 0-8, and their incentive to chase wins has to be questioned. With a roster better than its record suggests, taking a leap year and securing a top draft pick may be the smarter play.
Jacoby Brissett gets the Chargers for a second time this week, and after watching him pepper Michael Wilson with targets in Arizona, I'm hoping Zay Flowers gets similar treatment Monday night. Baltimore's No. 1 receiver is coming off a brutal outing, managing just six yards on seven targets in one of the worst passing performances of the season. I'm expecting a much better connection with Brissett under center, who offers a more reliable passing option. Flowers is available at 2.7x to score, well above the 2.15x price we've seen earlier this season, and I'd buy to 2.55x. I'll gladly take the Brissett-Wilson treatment with a much better pass-catcher in Flowers.
During his time in Arizona, Brissett had an elite option at tight end in Trey McBride, who leads the team in targets entering Week 10. McBridge also tops all TEs in routes run this season. Andrews has drawn four or more targets in three of the five games since Lamar Jackson was injured/re-injured and his Week 10 projections sit north of three catches. My MNF forecast has Andrews tabbed for 3+ receptions versus Los Angeles.
Henry put the offense on his back facing an Chargers defense that’s allowed 4.7 yards per carry over their last three outings, dropping to 26th in EPA allowed per handoff since Week 6. Henry’s rushing yard total is a bit tempered due to negative game scripts facing the Ravens in recent weeks. Our models says 94 yards and isn’t the only projections bullish on Baltimore’s running back. All models consulted sit above 75 with a ceiling of 116 yards on MNF.
Derrick Henry projects for 94 rushing yards on more than 20 carries Monday night, and I expect his total to climb heading into kickoff. I'd confidently play him to reach 80+ yards at up to 55%. Jacoby Brissett has admitted he's on a "crash course" with the offense, which should lead to a simplified playbook and heavier reliance on the run. Baltimore also faces a Chargers offense that's last in scoring, struggling in the red zone and allowing the second-most sacks per game. With LA's offensive line potentially making changes and the Chargers ranking 26th in rush defense by EPA per carry since Week 5, this sets up nicely for a heavy Henry workload.
Vidal has overtaken Keaton Mitchell as the RB2 on the depth chart and given the way Omarion Hampton has belly flopped, Vidal drew almost an equal snap share in Week 9. Vidal is a weapon to run or receive and has posted 30+ combined yards in five straight games, with those gains coming against much stronger stop units than Baltimore. His Week 10 forecasts range from 29.8 combined yards to a ceiling of 46 yards, with the majority at 33.5 or higher. My projection for Vidal sits just shy of 39 rush/receiving yards on Monday.
Baltimore's offense has been an absolute disaster, scoring 13 points or fewer in four consecutive games. Jacoby Brissett might provide a spark at quarterback, but we're talking about a guy who was just benched against Dallas and is now trying to learn a new offense on the fly. That's not exactly a recipe for an offensive explosion.
Derrick Henry's anytime TD is +EV at the current 53% probability, with a fair price of 55%. If the Ravens get into the red zone, I don't expect them to get cute with a new QB under center. It'll be hand the ball to Henry three straight times, eat the clock, and control the game. Omarion Hampton's rushing Over is also +EV, with a projection of 53 yards. Hampton led the backfield with 13 carries last week in a blowout loss, while Keaton Mitchell's fumble could eat into his 25% workload. Pairing the TD prop with Under 38.5 boosts the overall price. This has the makings of a slow, run-first game, with the pressure on Justin Herbert and the Chargers' struggling offensive line potentially putting their offense behind the sticks all night.
LAC vs BAL Consensus Picks
LAC vs BAL Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
38.5 Total
41.50 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.0
DIFFERENCE
17.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Brissett
(QB)
u216.5 Passing Yards
192.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-24.1
DIFFERENCE
25.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Herbert
(QB)
u203.5 Passing Yards
192.76 UNDER
PROJECTION
-10.7
DIFFERENCE
22.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Brissett
(QB)
o5.5 Rushing Yards
13.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.9
DIFFERENCE
26.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
O. Hampton
(RB)
o32.5 Rushing Yards
53.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+20.6
DIFFERENCE
26.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
D. Henry
(RB)
o79.5 Rushing Yards
94.17 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.7
DIFFERENCE
26.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o21.5 Rushing Yards
26.51 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.0
DIFFERENCE
22.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Andrews
(TE)
o21.5 Receiving Yards
31.36 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.9
DIFFERENCE
26.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Henry
(RB)
o5.5 Receiving Yards
9.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.8
DIFFERENCE
25.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
O. Hampton
(RB)
o4.5 Receiving Yards
8.11 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.6
DIFFERENCE
24.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
Z. Flowers
(WR)
o69.5 Receiving Yards
69.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
19.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
M. Andrews
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions Made
3.50 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
16.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. Henry
(RB)
u1.5 Receptions Made
1.20 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-1.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
O. Hampton
(RB)
u1.5 Receptions Made
1.24 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-3.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
Z. Flowers
(WR)
o5.5 Receptions Made
5.55 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-11.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
O. Hampton
(RB)
o10.5 Rushing Attempts
12.55 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.1
DIFFERENCE
18.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
D. Henry
(RB)
o18.5 Rushing Attempts
20.30 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.8
DIFFERENCE
14.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o4.5 Rushing Attempts
4.64 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-22.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Brissett
(QB)
u32.5 Passing Attempts
28.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.1
DIFFERENCE
21.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Herbert
(QB)
u30.5 Passing Attempts
28.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.1
DIFFERENCE
16.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Brissett
(QB)
u20.5 Passing Completions
18.32 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.2
DIFFERENCE
15.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Herbert
(QB)
u19.5 Passing Completions
18.04 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.5
DIFFERENCE
15.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Henry
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.78 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
19.14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Brissett
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.15 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
L. McConkey
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.21 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
11.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Andrews
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
10.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
O. Hampton
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.27 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
7.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Z. Flowers
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.39 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-1.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Herbert
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.15 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-2.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Herbert
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
22.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Brissett
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.39 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
17.69%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Under is 5-0 in Ravens last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-0 in Chargers last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 vs. AFC.
Road team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Under is 5-1 in Chargers last 6 road games.