Steelers vs Bengals Picks & Props
PIT vs CIN Picks
NFL PicksThe Steelers are rested and ready, presenting the stiffest opposition the Bengals have drawn since their streak started. Cincinnati has sliced through the melted-butter stop units of Miami, Baltimore, Tennessee and Atlanta – all of which rank 22nd or worst in EPA allowed per play since Week 5. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has settled into its defensive schemes under new coordinator Patrick Graham. The Steelers sat 23rd in opponent success rate (46%) in the opening four games and have trimmed that allowance to 38.7% during this winning run.
The Bengals are getting plenty of love heading into Sunday night, but let's not forget they needed overtime to beat Tennessee at home just two weeks ago. Pittsburgh already handled Cincinnati in Week 3, averaging 7.0 yards per play to the Bengals' 6.3. The Steelers also have a significant rest advantage coming off their bye, while Cincinnati is returning from a game in Spain. Give me Pittsburgh to keep it tight.
The Bengals have allowed the fourth-lowest rushing success rate through three games out of their Week 6 bye, and the Cinny offense is clicking with 37.3 points per game and the highest EPA per dropback during the stretch. Pittsburgh entered its Week 9 bye relying on the running game while ranked 22nd in passing DVOA with the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback, so look for the Cincinnati defense to make enough stops for the offense to pull away in this critical AFC North bout.
I'm on Pat Freiermuth at 4.17x in one of the best tight end matchups in football and would play him down to 3.85x. The Steelers are coming off their bye and face a Cincinnati defense that allows the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends in the NFL. The Bengals are also returning from Spain without the benefit of a bye. The last time we saw this offense, Darnell Washington was getting more snaps, but Freiermuth still leads comfortably in target share and has double the air-yard share of his backup. Both players see plenty of red-zone work, but Freiermuth already has four red-zone touchdowns this season, tied for second among tight ends. He's the Pittsburgh TE I'm backing at this price.
The Bengals running back hasn’t scored since Week 1 and had a receiving TD called back in Week 9’s win over Atlanta. Cincinnati’s passing attack has been so effective, Brown isn’t getting many red zone reps. But the Steelers pose a tough test on defense and the Bengals will have to grind out gains inside the 20-yard line. Brown is a great buy low option in the touchdown markets, with his pricing trimmed significantly. Forecast still give him around a 50% shot of finally finding paydirt on SNF.
I price Tee Higgins closer to 53% to score against Pittsburgh, making 46% an appealing buy. The Steelers tend to shade coverage toward Ja'Marr Chase with safety help, leaving Higgins in isolated boundary matchups where Joe Burrow can exploit his size and ability to win jump balls.
I'd play this up to 56% or down to 285.5 at a better price. Despite an MVP-level season, Burrow has fallen short of this number in six of his eight outings. The Steelers' four-man rush can generate enough pressure without overtaxing the back-end of the defense, and the visitors haven't allowed a 300-yard passer this year.
On the season, Pittsburgh has allowed the 15th most receiving yards to rival TEs despite giving up the fifth fewest targets. FTN rates the Steelers DVOA vs tight ends at 24th among all teams. Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki caught all three balls his way for 37 yards in the Week 3 matchup with the Steelers. Projections for Sunday night are very bullish for Gesicki, with all models north of 25 yards and a ceiling flirting with 40 yards. My number comes out to 33+ yards in Week 10.
I'd bet it up to 94.5 and 56%. Warren is the Steelers' leading rusher and also has the second-most receiving yards on the team. So this line feels too low for a versatile running back who's racked up 120+ yards from scrimmage in five of his last six outings, with 100+ rushing yards in four of those contests.
The WR duo have both scored in four of the Bengals eight games this season, including against the Steelers in W3.
Pittsburgh has the defensive prowess and ball-hogging run game to take the air out of the Bengals’ high-flying attack. The Steelers covered as a dog versus Cincy in Week 3 and is 9-3 ATS in its last dozen games catching points from its AFC North foe. Chase Brown almost snapped his touchdown drought last week in Spain but had a receiving score called back. His TD forecasts sit around 50% for Week 10, with Brown a threat to run or catch for six points. Mike Gesicki has posted 37, 53, and 68 yards versus the rival Steelers in his time with Cincinnati. With Burrow forced to check down more, the tight end sees plenty of work and his projections sit as high as 39+ yards on SNF.
PIT vs CIN Consensus Picks
PIT vs CIN Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
CIN
-3.5 spread
-6.54
PROJECTION
-3.0
DIFFERENCE
18.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Under
49.5 Total
46.18 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.3
DIFFERENCE
18.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Burrow
(QB)
o288.5 Passing Yards
327.16 OVER
PROJECTION
+38.7
DIFFERENCE
26.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
A. Rodgers
(QB)
u236.5 Passing Yards
228.60 UNDER
PROJECTION
-7.9
DIFFERENCE
20.8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
A. Rodgers
(QB)
o0.5 Rushing Yards
2.97 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.5
DIFFERENCE
26.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Burrow
(QB)
o6.5 Rushing Yards
11.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.1
DIFFERENCE
25.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Warren
(RB)
u65.5 Rushing Yards
61.04 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.5
DIFFERENCE
20.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
C. Brown
(RB)
o46.5 Rushing Yards
49.83 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.3
DIFFERENCE
16.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Gesicki
(TE)
o25.5 Receiving Yards
36.42 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.9
DIFFERENCE
26.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
P. Freiermuth
(TE)
o27.5 Receiving Yards
34.47 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.0
DIFFERENCE
25.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Warren
(RB)
u25.5 Receiving Yards
17.80 UNDER
PROJECTION
-7.7
DIFFERENCE
25.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
G. Bernard
(WR)
o50.5 Receiving Yards
57.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.3
DIFFERENCE
23.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Brown
(RB)
o20.5 Receiving Yards
26.83 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.3
DIFFERENCE
21.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Chase
(WR)
o90.5 Receiving Yards
95.05 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.5
DIFFERENCE
19.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
M. Gesicki
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
13.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Chase
(WR)
o7.5 Receptions Made
8.13 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
5.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
P. Freiermuth
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions Made
3.18 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
4.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Brown
(RB)
u4.5 Receptions Made
4.18 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
3.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
G. Bernard
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions Made
4.52 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-12.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Warren
(RB)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.64 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-17.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
C. Brown
(RB)
o11.5 Rushing Attempts
12.10 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
9.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Warren
(RB)
o13.5 Rushing Attempts
13.68 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-5.73%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
A. Rodgers
(QB)
u36.5 Passing Attempts
34.65 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.9
DIFFERENCE
13.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Burrow
(QB)
o37.5 Passing Attempts
37.55 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-8.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Burrow
(QB)
o26.5 Passing Completions
29.55 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.1
DIFFERENCE
18.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
A. Rodgers
(QB)
u21.5 Passing Completions
20.67 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
9.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Burrow
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
25.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
G. Bernard
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.45 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
25.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
P. Freiermuth
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.29 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Brown
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.58 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
9.65%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Chase
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.56 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
8.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Warren
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.46 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-3.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Gesicki
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.25 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-8.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A. Rodgers
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.05 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-8.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Burrow
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.47 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
14.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
A. Rodgers
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.62 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-11.08%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 5-0-1 in Bengals last 6 games in Week 10.
Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Bengals are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Steelers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.