Chiefs vs Falcons   Picks & Props

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At a -3-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 129.6 total plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Falcons profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the model to run 66.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Our trusted projections expect Patrick Mahomes to throw 37.5 passes this week, on balance: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in football.

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the model to run 66.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. This year, the daunting Falcons run defense has given up a puny 4.81 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's rushing attack: the 26th-best rate in the league.

Our trusted projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-most run-centric team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 42.9% run rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 129.6 total plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. The Falcons have called the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.1 plays per game.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. The Kansas City Chiefs defense owns the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding just 3.32 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).. As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Kansas City's LB corps has been terrific this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the league.

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the model to run 66.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. This year, the daunting Falcons run defense has given up a puny 4.81 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's rushing attack: the 26th-best rate in the league.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 129.6 total plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to earn 5.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency against RBs this year, surrendering 7.47 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in football.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 129.7 total plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. The model projects Kyle Pitts to notch 6.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs.. The Chiefs defense has been gouged for the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (63.0) vs. TEs this year.

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the model to run 66.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in football.. The projections expect Rashee Rice to accrue 7.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 86th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 129.7 total plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. In this contest, Drake London is anticipated by the predictive model to finish in the 96th percentile among wide receivers with 9.8 targets.. Drake London has been one of the best wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 63.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the model to run 66.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in football.

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.. The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.. Travis Kelce's 70.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this year conveys a material decline in his receiving prowess over last year's 73.9% rate.. The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has shown good efficiency versus tight ends this year, allowing 6.77 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.. The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.. Rashee Rice has been much less involved in his team's pass game this year (16.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (28.6%).. The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.. Rashee Rice's receiving skills have tailed off this year, compiling just 4.1 adjusted receptions vs 6.7 last year.. The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

The projections expect the Falcons to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.1% pass rate.. The Falcons have called the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.1 plays per game.. Bijan Robinson's 23.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 31.2.

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the model to run 66.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in football.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 129.7 total plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. The model projects Kyle Pitts to notch 6.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Falcons profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 129.6 total plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. In this contest, Drake London is anticipated by the predictive model to finish in the 96th percentile among wide receivers with 9.8 targets.. With an excellent 4.3 adjusted catches per game (86th percentile) this year, Drake London stands among the leading WRs in the game in the league.

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.. The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.. Travis Kelce's 70.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this year conveys a material decline in his receiving prowess over last year's 73.9% rate.. The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. The Falcons have called the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.1 plays per game.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Kansas City's LB corps has been terrific this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the league.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 39.7% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. After making up 17.1% of his offense's run game usage last year, Patrick Mahomes has played a smaller part in the rushing attack this year, now making up only 9.1%.. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Atlanta's unit has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 39.7% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Atlanta's unit has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the model to run 66.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Our trusted projections expect Patrick Mahomes to throw 37.5 passes this week, on balance: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in football.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 129.7 total plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 129.7 total plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Falcons profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the model to run 66.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in football.. Patrick Mahomes's 67.1% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a remarkable progression in his passing precision over last year's 64.0% rate.

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the end zone (59.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the model to run 66.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in football.

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the end zone (59.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the model to run 66.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in football.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 129.7 total plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. The predictive model expects Drake London to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack near the goal line in this game (26.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.5% in games he has played).. Drake London's 68.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 93rd percentile for wideouts.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 129.7 total plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Falcons profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.. Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-fewest TDs in football (0.62 per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the end zone (59.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the model to run 66.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in football.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 129.7 total plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. The model projects Bijan Robinson to be a more integral piece of his team's pass game near the end zone in this contest (14.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (8.1% in games he has played).. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Falcons profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 129.0 total plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Kyle Pitts has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 21.6% this year, which puts him in the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Falcons profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the end zone (59.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the model to run 66.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in football.

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the end zone (59.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the model to run 66.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Our trusted projections expect Patrick Mahomes to throw 37.5 passes this week, on balance: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.

The projections expect the Falcons to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.1% pass rate.. The Falcons have called the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.1 plays per game.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Kansas City's collection of CBs has been excellent this year, ranking as the 6th-best in the league.

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.. The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.. The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.