The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t been a great bet.
They’ve cashed in their share of long-running loot from NFL futures but when you measure money in and money out game to game, the Chiefs’ ledger is redder than a sunburned Andy Reid drinking a tall glass of cherry Kool-Aid.
The Chiefs are a collective 21-28-1 against the spread in the past three regular seasons (43%) – the fourth worst bet from Week 1 to Week 18 in that span.
Highlighting that poor ATS record isn’t a jab at the reigning champ as Super Bowl odds have the Chiefs as the favorites to defend their title. It’s a statement of their place within the industry. Kansas City was a favorite in 46 of those 50 games and giving six points or more in 30 of those contests.
Bookies pad the Chiefs’ opening spreads knowing one-sided action is going to show up and the betting public piles on, shoving those lines through key numbers and to heights that even the greatest of teams (and this is one) would have trouble topping.
Last season, just six of Kansas City’s 17 regular season spreads shrunk and those all came against other top-tier teams (Bucs, Bills, 49ers, Bolts and Bengals) or the Week 18 finale (with starters possibly getting pulled). The Chiefs were 3-3 ATS in those games.
Of the 11 spreads that went up, the average increase was two points and all those lines either moved off a key number and/or through one before closing. Kansas City was 3-7-1 ATS in those outings.
What do oddsmakers have in store for the Chiefs in 2023? More chalk and lots of it.
Early NFL odds have Kansas City as a favorite in all but one of its 17 games this year (a +1 spread at L.A. in Week 18) and is laying six or more points in eight of those outings. Will the Chiefs continue to be a great team and a terrible bet?
We find out in my 2023 Kansas City Chiefs NFL betting preview.
Kansas City Chiefs futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| Win conference | +350 | +350 | +350 |
| Win division | -165 | -180 | -175 |
| Make playoffs | -450 | -500 | -500 |
| O11.5 wins | -140 | -134 | -135 |
| U11.5 wins | +120 | +110 | +105 |
Best futures bet: Win AFC (+350)
Kansas City has the best player in the league and arguably the best coach as well. The last time a team paired those pinnacles together, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were trying to find space on the mantle for their sixth Lombardi Trophy.
The Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid combo is better than the other top contenders in the AFC, especially with turmoil in Buffalo, Joe Burrow’s injury concerns in Cincy, Aaron Rodgers unknowns in New York, and the Chargers owning their own page in the urban dictionary for “Chargering”.
There are some shakeups in the coaching staff and personnel, which could present speed bumps along the way. That’s why I’m not biting on odds to win the AFC West (-165) or jumping at the Over 11.5 wins. But when it comes down to beating K.C. in big games, no other AFC clubs are up to the task.
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Kansas City Chiefs betting overview
What will win bets: Defense
If the Chiefs are going to scale those mountains of chalk, it will be because of the defense. I mean, can we really ask much more from Mahomes and the offense?
Kansas City’s stop unit is notorious for starting slow and then finding championship form later in the year, but this maturing defense could be good to go in Week 1 – pending Chris Jones’ holdout.
Steve Spagnuolo’s guys find themselves in the middle of the pack in term of preseason polls – instead of the back half of the league – and having an offense like KC’s only makes things easier, as teams are forced to go pass-heavy to catch up.
With Jones, this defensive line is among the best in the NFL. If it can stir up pressure like it did in the second half of the season, then an underrated secondary can shut down hurried passes and make game-changing takeaways that will stop the late-game bleeding.
Kansas City allowed 7.3 points in fourth quarters last season (fourth most) which doomed anyone laying the lumber with the Chiefs.
What will lose bets: Big Spreads
As mentioned above, the Chiefs are not only laying a ton of points with the opening line, but the public appeal of the Super Bowl champs pushes those spreads an average of two points per week, planting some nasty half-point hooks before Sunday.
The 2023 lookahead odds have Kansas City sets as a favorite in all but one game, which is an uptick from 2022 in which those early spreads had the Chiefs laying the lumber in 12 games with two pick’ems on the board.
As it stands entering Week 1, Kansas City faces an average spread just south of -5. If the market reacts the same way it did last year, we’ll likely see a one to two-point increase on many of those lines, which means a jump up to and through key numbers -6, -6.5 and -7.
That’s not to say there aren’t spots to bet on the Chiefs, but if you are riding with Kansas City do it earlier in the week before the casual gamblers blindly throw their money at Mahomes & Co.
Kansas City Chiefs 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Detroit Lions |
-6.5 |
| 2 | @  Jacksonville Jaguars |
-3 |
| 3 | vs  Chicago Bears |
-9.5 |
| 4 | @  New York Jets |
-2 |
| 5 | @  Minnesota Vikings |
-4 |
| 6 | vs  Denver Broncos |
-7 |
| 7 | vs  Los Angeles Chargers |
-5.5 |
| 8 | @ Denver Broncos |
-3.5 |
| 9 | vs  Miami Dolphins |
-4 |
| 10 | BYE | |
| 11 | vs  Philadelphia Eagles |
-3 |
| 12 | @  Las Vegas Raiders |
-5 |
| 13 | @  Green Bay Packers |
-5.5 |
| 14 | vs  Buffalo Bills |
-3.5 |
| 15 | @  New England Patriots |
-4 |
| 16 | vs Las Vegas Raiders |
-8.5 |
| 17 | vs  Cincinnati Bengals |
-3 |
| 18 | @ Los Angeles Chargers |
-2 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
If you want to be the best, you’ve got to beat the best and the NFL schedule makers lay down the gauntlet for the Chiefs in 2023.
Kansas City’s overall strength of schedule sits 13th in the league but the calendar is loaded with contenders: Detroit, Jacksonville, N.Y. Jets, Miami, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Cincinnati along with two meetings with the rival Chargers. Despite that tall task, Kansas City is a favorite in all but Week 18’s possible rest spot versus Los Angeles.
My NFL power ratings place the Chiefs atop the league (80.88/100), just ahead of the Eagles (79.41/100) but a good distance from the next best AFC team (Cincinnati 75/100).
There aren’t many chances for Kansas City to catch its collective breath in 2023, especially in the first half of the schedule. After a Thursday night season opener versus Detroit at home, the Chiefs play five of their next eight outings away from Arrowhead – finishing against Miami in Germany in Week 9.
The Week 1 matchup with the Lions should be a fun one (if the 54-point total tells us anything), with the betting markets very high on Detroit this season. The Chiefs are still laying between -6.5 and -7 and my ratings produced a touchdown spread (KC -7.02).
The second half of the season does help KC in terms of securing a top seed with its hardest opposition all having to come to Kansas City (three of the final five games also at home). The Eagles visit Arrowhead in a Super Bowl rematch in Week 11, the Bills are in town in Week 14, and the Bengals come calling in Week 17.
Kansas City Chiefs schedule spot bet
Week 5: @ Minnesota
The Chiefs’ schedule is challenging but doesn’t have too many situational spots to snag their Super Bowl march. Save for this Week 5 trip to Minnesota.
Kansas City will be playing back-to-back road games and its third road stop in four weeks on October 8. Not only that, it’s coming off a high-profile showdown with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets on Sunday Night Football in Week 4, setting up a possible letdown spot in this non-conference clash.
The look-ahead lines have Kansas City laying -5 on the road in Minnesota while my power ratings spit out an estimated spread of Chiefs -7.5 before making any adjustments for the sticky schedule spot. Kansas City is a perfect 14-0 SU and 8-5-1 ATS versus NFC foes in the regular season the past three years.
Star power: Patrick Mahomes props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| OPOY | +3,500 | +2,500 | +2,500 |
| Pass yards leader | +275 | +250 | +400 |
| Pass TD leader | +275 | +350 | +300 |
| O36.5 pass TD | -110 | -112* | -115** |
| U36.5 pass TD | -110 | -112* | -115** |
| Pass yard total | 4,800.5 | 4,650.5 | 4,750.5 |
*Pass TD total is 35.5 at FanDuel
**Pass TD total is 37.5 at Caesars
Best prop: Under 37.5 Touchdowns (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Mahomes led the league with 41 passing touchdowns in 2022 (five of those in Week 1), utilizing a big, bad receiving corps that could box out in the end zone and win contested balls.
His 2023 targets still have beef to throw around with towering TE Travis Kelce and WR Marcus Valdes-Scantling, but guys like Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney are built for speed. On top of that, the running game started to find its footing with Isiah Pacheco as a red-zone option late in the year and into the playoffs.
Season-long projections for Mahomes have his TD total bouncing between 36 and 37 passing scores, but I believe the Chiefs won’t need him to shoulder the load as much in 2023. If the defense can tighten up in the second half, the pace of this offense can slow down and protect the lead.
Andy Reid disciple Matt Nagy returns as the offensive coordinator, so the playbook won’t look too different from Eric Bieniemy. That said, in Nagy’s last season as the Chiefs OC in 2017, the team ranked 10th in rushing yards. Perhaps we see more balance after the Chiefs handed off on just 38.5% of snaps in 2022.
That could chip into Mahomes’ touchdown total.
Kansas City Chiefs betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have changed the defensive blueprint of the entire NFL over the last couple of years as seemingly every team has adapted to keeping safeties deep and playing cover defense. Well, the two have responded as Mahomes has become a QB who takes what the defense gives him and unsurprisingly excels no matter what is coming at him.
Mahomes finished 2022 with career-highs in completion percentage (67.1%) and 5,250 yards, which also led the league. All of this came after finishing 23rd in air yards per attempt. That leaves second-year WR Skyy Moore to soak up a lot of those underneath and intermediate targets that are even more available with Juju Smith-Schuster (101 targets last year) gone. Kadarius Toney can’t stay on the field and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a field stretcher with drop issues. With Juju’s targets available and a hopeful second-year jump, Moore is in a great spot to top his reception total of 40.5 catches as a No. 2 in an offense that could have 440 completions on the year. A 10.7% target share over 17 games could hit this Over.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
Since becoming a full-time starter, Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 192 TD passes — good enough for an average of 38.4 per season. Over at FanDuel, his O/U TD total is set at 35.5, which is a number he’s topped in four of his five seasons. I’ll happily back the Over on this number as Mahomes somehow continues to improve in an offense that doesn’t take its foot off the gas.
Perhaps another player prop number that is set somewhat conservatively is Travis Kelce's receiving yards total, which is at 1075.5. Sign me up for another Over as Kelce has topped this number in every season since Mahomes stepped in for an average of 1,288.8 yards in their five seasons together, including a career-high 1,338 last season.
Kansas City Chiefs trend to know
Anyone blindly betting the “Andy Reid off a bye week” spot in 2022 got burned.
Kansas City was laying two touchdowns to the Tennessee Titans in Week 9 and barely escaped with the win, edging the underdog 20-17 in overtime.
The win improved Reid to 21-3 SU off a bye but his ATS prowess shrunk to 15-9 ATS, going back to his first season with the Eagles in 1999.
This infamous trend is back in play in Week 11 and comes full circle considering the Chiefs are hosting Reid’s former team and Super Bowl rival, Philadelphia, after getting a break in Week 10. The Eagles will also be fresh off a Week 10 bye.
The look-ahead line has Kansas City laying a field goal while my ratings produce a spread of KC -2.65 for this monster Monday Night Football matchup on November 20.
Chiefs off a bye
- Week 11 vs. Philadelphia (KC -3)
