After two days of no football, the NFL rewards us with a game featuring a double-digit spread between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens.
Schedule makers can't predict injuries, and I try to make the most of this matchup with my Jaguars vs. Ravens anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Thursday Night Football.
Check out my NFL picks for Nov. 5.
Best Jaguars vs. Ravens anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Bhayshul Tuten |
46% |
 Derrick Henry |
49% |
| First TD: Parker Washington |
13% |
| Long shot: Jakobi Meyers |
22% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Jaguars touchdown pick: Bhayshul Tuten
Bhayshul Tuten to score a touchdown at 46% sounds good to me, and I'll play it up to 50%.
Despite having what feels like the most overturned touchdowns, the Jacksonville Jaguars' running back has found paydirt six times in seven games — three rushing and three receiving.
Tuten's 18 red-zone rushing attempts rank tied for 14th among running backs, and it's eight more than Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s 10. Tuten also has two targets inside the 10, both of which found the end zone.
The 23-year-old possesses dual-threat capabilities in a game where the Jags can expect plenty of time with the ball against Baltimore's emergency quarterback (who has been seen practicing with an ankle brace).
Ravens touchdown pick: Derrick Henry
There's a world where the Baltimore Ravens don't score a touchdown, but if they do, Derrick Henry is their guy.
It's been a quiet year by his standards, but Henry has scored nine times in eight games — with all but one coming on the ground. Quarterback Joe Fagnano completed just 10 of 21 pass attempts in Week 8 against a horrible Buffalo Bills defense, averaging just 4.4 yards per throw.
The Jags are surrendering a league-low 77.4 yards per game in the trenches, but are bleeding air yards at the third-worst rate. That should help the Ravens at least get into manageable situations where they can hand it off to Henry.
Despite limiting yards on the ground, Jacksonville has given up a rushing touchdown in four of seven games this season. I wouldn't play this past 51%.
First touchdown scorer pick: Parker Washington
In a game where Jacksonville is a 10-point favorite, I expect it to score first for the seventh time in eight games.
I'm riding with Parker Washington, who has opened the scoring in two games this season and is coming off a quiet outing.
Despite the Jags scoring 42 points on the Indianapolis Colts, Washington caught one pass on two targets. I don't see that happening again, and I expect the Jags will want to get him going early to make up for it.
Wide receivers are fragile people with big egos, and getting the 24-year-old involved early should be a priority on Thursday Night Football.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Jakobi Meyers
OK, hear me out. Jakobi Meyers may have 17 fewer targets than Parker Washington, but he trails him in receptions by only five.
When you shrink the field and look at red-zone stats, things get more interesting. Washington has eight targets to Meyers' seven inside the 20, and inside the 10, Meyers actually leads the target count 6-4.
So, even though the numbers are that close, one is priced at 41% to score a touchdown, and the other is 22%.
Meyers' usage when the Jags get close is more than enough for me to play this up to 25%.
Jaguars vs. Ravens touchdown combo
I hit a 4x combo last week by combining my favorite scorer from each team, and I ain't fixing what isn't broken.
Henry is Baltimore's best chance at finding paydirt with a hampered emergency quarterback, and Bhayshul Tuten's ability to impact the game in multiple ways has me confident this all-running back combo is smacking.
- TD picks: 10-12, +15.86 units
- First TD picks: 0-8, -4 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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