Thursday Night Football games are a tough challenge for any team.
Now imagine you’re the Baltimore Ravens, facing the possibility of starting a fourth-string quarterback with just four days to prepare. Oh, and you’re up against the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Top 5 defense.
Scary stuff.
My Jaguars vs. Ravens prop picks take a good look at this unique scenario, unearthing angles and edges that offer value in the player performance markets — including some Ravens’ receiving props.
I know, crazy right?
Here are my top props and NFL picks for Nov. 5.
Best Jaguars vs Ravens props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Chris Rodriguez Jr. 30+ rushing yards |
57% |
 Justice Hill 15+ receiving yards |
47% |
| Rashod Bateman longest reception Over 11.5 yards |
48% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Chris Rodriguez Jr. 30+ rushing yards
Jacksonville Jaguars backup running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. has made the most of his touches in recent weeks, rushing for more than 30 yards in four of his last five outings.
Rodriguez could get increased work in Week 9, considering the short turnaround for Thursday. Starting RB Bhayshul Tuten is dealing with multiple injuries, and the Jags want to be careful about his usage as the season rolls on.
With a big spread and run-positive game script for Jacksonville, Rodriguez will carry the load in the second half of this prime-time showing. He’s boasting 5.24 yards per carry over the last five contests and is a beast in the final two frames, averaging 6.1 yards per run in second halves.
Player projections for Week 9 are positive, with many C-Rod forecasts north of 30 yards. My number comes out to 32 yards but recognizes the situational boost, with a ceiling closer to 40 yards rushing.
Prop pick #2: Justice Hill 15+ receiving yards
Baltimore Ravens running back Justice Hill is the team’s third-down option, which means he’ll continue to see an uptick in snaps on Thursday.
Hill logged a season-high 49% of snaps when shit hit the fan at Buffalo on Sunday, drawing eight targets (another season high) for four catches and 20 yards receiving.
Given the shape of the Ravens’ QB room, Baltimore will struggle to move the chains and find itself in plenty of third downs on Thursday. Whichever backup is under center, they’ll lean on the pass-catching RB as a safety blanket.
Hill’s role in the receiving game jumped when Lamar Jackson was first injured ahead of Week 5. He went from six total targets in the opening four games to 11 in the following three contests with Tyler Huntley under center.
Jacksonville’s defense has seen the 12th most targets to rival RBs while allowing the 10th most receptions to the position. The Jaguars rank 19th in DVOA in pass defense versus running backs at FTN.
Game models vary for Hill, given the fluctuating status of the Ravens' quarterbacks. However, most hover around 15 yards or beyond. My projection comes out just shy of 17 yards in Week 9.
Prop pick #3: Rashod Bateman longest reception Over 11.5 yards
Jacksonville has a top-tier defense but if there was a soft spot in that stop unit, it would be against deeper receiving threats.
The Jaguars have allowed 21 “explosive passes”, rank 26th in yards allowed per attempt (7.3), and bleed the fourth most total air yards to opposing offenses.
Granted, Baltimore’s downfield attack looks about as dangerous as a pair of safety scissors right now. Still, WR Rashod Bateman did haul in a 22-yard pass in the third quarter of Sunday’s blowout loss to Buffalo, long after Lamar had exited the game.
Bateman is a home run hitter, posting at least one reception of 18+ yards in six of his eight games. He averages 20.5 air yards per catch and can take the top of a Jacksonville secondary running short on safeties.
This longest reception total is on the low end for Bateman, given the Ravens’ QB questions. With Jackson on the field, those totals were as high as 21.5 yards O/U. In the games without Lamar and including Sunday’s finish, the WR has topped this longest reception bar in three of those four outings.
My forecast for Bateman’s biggest gain comes out just shy of 15 yards on TNF.
- Prop picks: 30-18, +10.64 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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