My North Dakota State vs. Hawaii prediction has the Bison continuing a successful first season at the FBS level as they travel to the island to face the Rainbow Warriors in today's nightcap.
Kalshi has the visitors at 71% to win and -6.5 against the spread, and my college football picks think they're well-positioned to implement their style of play even with strong winds in the forecast.
Tune in to this contest at 11 p.m. ET on The CW tonight, and read our Week 11 Top Picks and Brad Powers' Week 11 predictions.
TOP PICK
Who will win North Dakota State vs Hawaii tonight: North Dakota State -6.5
In a game with sustained winds above 20 mph, back the team that can consistently run the football. Play North Dakota State at -7 or better.
The Bison are fully rested off a bye week and are ready to implement their physical style. The big uglies up front can create room against a Hawaii defense ranked 130th in PFF's rush defense grade and surrendering 171 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry.
Defense travels, and Tim Polasek's squad allows the second-fewest ppg (11.9) in the nation.
NDSU limits opponents to 248.8 total yards per game and 4.4 yards per play, and will control the flow of this game en route to a relatively comfortable victory.
See our college football picks against the spread for more Week 11 sides.
COVERS INTEL: Hawaii throws the ball at the second-highest rate (62.2%) in the country but generates few chunk plays with the eighth-least explosive passing offense.
North Dakota State vs Hawaii Over/Under pick tonight: Over 38.5
The weather and NDSU's stingy defense create a recipe where points are at a premium. Still, does that excuse a total all the way down at 38.5?
I'm willing to buy back at that number. Hawaii's offense stunk to begin the year, but has been a lot better (24th in success rate on standard downs since Week 6), and the market isn't accounting for the recent gains.
The Bison, meanwhile, check in at 28th in PFF's overall offensive grade. You're telling me they can't find points against a Hawaii defense allowing 6.0 yards per play?
See our college football Over/Under picks for more Week 11 totals.
North Dakota State vs Hawaii prop: North Dakota State team total Over 23.5
I don't trust Hawaii's defense in any way. Despite facing what ESPN's FPI says is the 126th most difficult schedule, the Rainbow Warriors have still allowed at least 5.2 yards per play in every contest.
NDSU gets quality quarterback play out of Nathan Hayes, who leads Mountain West signal callers with an 89.3 offensive grade per PFF and 17 big-time throws (six more than any other quarterback) to just eight turnover-worthy passes.
Pair him with a ground game that has racked up 140+ yards in six of its last seven, and you can score in any weather.
North Dakota State vs Hawaii combo
NDSU has hit the first-half moneyline in seven of its last nine games.
Polasek's squad can get the ground game going, allowing Hayes to hit play-action shots against a defense that has struggled to contain much of anyone.
The total is low enough to buy back with an Over given NDSU's favorable outlook and Hawaii's recent offensive improvements.
See our Group of 6 picks for more on today's G6 slate.
North Dakota State vs Hawaii combo
- North Dakota State first-half moneyline
- North Dakota State -6.5
- Over 38.5
North Dakota State vs Hawaii market trends
Here's how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today’s matchup. Follow the smart money via the widget below to help inform your North Dakota State vs. Hawaii prediction.
- Top picks: 15-10, +4.54 units
- Combos: 8-17, +19.93 units
More Week 11 college football picks and predictions
- Week 11 college football Top Picks for Saturday, Nov. 14: Top pick from every game preview
- College football predictions Week 11: Brad Powers' CFB picks
- Week 11 college football AI predictions
- College football Top 25 predictions Week 11: watchability ratings and picks
- College football Week 11 picks against the spread
- College football Week 11 moneyline picks
- College football Over/Under picks: Week 11
- College football underdog picks and upset predictions: Week 11
- College football player props: Week 11
- Our favorite college football Group of 6 predictions: Week 11
North Dakota State vs Hawaii odds tonight
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: North Dakota State -6.5 | Hawaii +6.5
- Over/Under: Over 38.5 (53%) | Under 38.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: North Dakota State 70% | Hawaii 30%
Follow the North Dakota State vs. Hawaii market prices on Kalshi up to kickoff. See our college football moneyline picks for more win probabilities.
See our college football odds board for the full slate of college football matchups.
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North Dakota State vs Hawaii weather
The significant wind (23 mph sustained, 33 mph gusts) will limit the effectiveness of both passing attacks.
See our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
North Dakota State vs Hawaii trend to know
Hawaii is 1-5 ATS in its last six games lined within a touchdown. Find more college football betting trends for North Dakota State vs. Hawaii, and see our college football AI predictions.
or our BET99 promo code COVERS99 if you're in Canada.
How to watch North Dakota State vs Hawaii tonight
| Location | Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, Hawaii |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 11 p.m. ET |
| TV | The CW |
North Dakota State vs Hawaii latest injuries
See our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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