North Dakota State vs Hawai'i Picks & Props
NDSU vs HAW Picks
NCAAF PicksIn a game with sustained winds above 20 mph, back the team that can consistently run the football at -7 or better. Hawaii's defense (130th in PFF's rush defense grade; 171 rushing yards per game allowed) is several miles below NDSU's (248.8 total yards per game; 4.4 yards per play).
Hawaii's offense stunk to begin the year, but has been a lot better (24th in success rate on standard downs since Week 6), and the market isn't accounting for the recent gains. NDSU (28th in PFF's overall offensive grade) can run and throw on a bad Hawaii defense (6.0 yards per play allowed).
Despite facing the 126th most difficult schedule, Hawaii has still allowed at least 5.2 yards per play in every contest. NDSU quarterback Nathan Hayes leads Mountain West signal callers with an 89.3 offensive grade per PFF and 17 big-time throws (to just eight turnover-worthy passes).
NDSU has hit the first half moneyline in seven of its last nine games. The total is low enough to buy back with an Over given NDSU's favorable outlook and Hawaii's recent offensive improvements.
NDSU vs HAW Consensus Picks
NDSU vs HAW Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
HAW
M. Alejado
(QB)
u230.5 Passing Yards
203.01 UNDER
PROJECTION
-27.5
DIFFERENCE
25.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
NDSU
N. Hayes
(QB)
u200.5 Passing Yards
189.13 UNDER
PROJECTION
-11.4
DIFFERENCE
21.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
NDSU
D. Scott
(RB)
o44.5 Rushing Yards
50.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.1
DIFFERENCE
23.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
HAW
D. Rice
(RB)
u29.5 Rushing Yards
26.09 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.4
DIFFERENCE
20.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
HAW
C. Barfield
(RB)
u33.5 Rushing Yards
32.32 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.2
DIFFERENCE
7.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
NDSU
R. Kessel
(TE)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
36.31 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.8
DIFFERENCE
25.94%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
HAW
T. Lacaden
(WR)
o26.5 Receiving Yards
37.54 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.0
DIFFERENCE
25.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
NDSU
J. Williams
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
60.97 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.5
DIFFERENCE
24.79%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
NDSU
R. Kessel
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions
2.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-11.08%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Rainbow Warriors are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 4-0 in Bison last 4 games following a straight up win.
Rainbow Warriors are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite.
Under is 7-1 in Rainbow Warriors last 8 games overall.
Rainbow Warriors are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0 in Rainbow Warriors last 4 games in November.
Rainbow Warriors are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Bison last 6 games overall.