Our Week 7 college football top picks for Saturday are here: one top pick from each of today's biggest games, listed in kickoff order (all times ET) with the analyst behind every play.
A "top pick" is the analyst's best angle in that preview, which isn't always the point spread. Lines move, so confirm the number on the college football odds board before locking in your picks.
Week 7 college football top picks at a glance (Saturday, Oct. 17)
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| Matchup & kickoff | Top pick & analyst |
|---|---|
| Florida vs. Texas Noon |
Under 51.5 Chris Hatfield |
| Mississippi State vs. LSU Noon |
LSU -14.5 Chris Hatfield |
| Ohio State vs. Indiana Noon |
Indiana +3.5 Geoff Clark |
| Alabama vs. Tennessee 3:30 p.m. |
Alabama -7.5 Rob Paul |
| Penn State vs. Michigan 3:30 p.m. |
Penn State +6.5 Colby Marchio |
| Missouri vs. Ole Miss 3:30 p.m. |
Ole Miss -5.5 Nick Galaida |
| Arizona State vs. Texas Tech 3:30 p.m. |
Texas Tech -16.5 Colby Marchio |
| Auburn vs. Georgia 3:30 p.m. |
Georgia -20.5 Nick Galaida |
| North Carolina vs. Duke 3:30 p.m. |
Duke -2.5 Ed Scimia |
| Florida State vs. Miami 7 p.m. |
Miami TT o38.5 Ed Scimia |
| Kentucky vs. Oklahoma 7:30 p.m. |
Kentucky +6.5 Jason Ence |
| Notre Dame vs. BYU 7:30 p.m. |
Notre Dame -10.5 Rob Paul |
| Oklahoma State vs. Houston 7:30 p.m. |
Houston -4.5 Colby Marchio |
| Wisconsin vs. UCLA 7:30 p.m. |
Wisconsin +2.5 JD Yonke |
| Utah vs. Colorado 10:15 p.m. |
Colorado +14.5 Geoff Clark |
| Wake Forest vs. California 10:30 p.m. |
Wake Forest -9.5 Rob Paul |
| New Mexico vs. Hawaii 10:30 p.m. |
New Mexico -14.5 JD Yonke |
| Nebraska vs. Oregon 11 p.m. |
Oregon -6.5 Geoff Clark |
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Noon ET games
Florida vs. Texas
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- TV: ABC
- Analyst: Chris Hatfield
Top pick: Under 51.5
Chris Hatfield's top Florida vs. Texas predictions are bullish on the Under 51.5, and he would play it down to 50.5.
Texas ranks fifth nationally in early-down EPA per play allowed and sixth in defensive EPA per drive, and opponents face an average third-down distance of 8.12 yards against the Longhorns. Florida's own offense already deals with long third downs (7.62 yards on average, 105th nationally), so he expects plenty of stalled drives.
Texas isn't built to push the total either. Its offense is 55th in success rate and 67th in EPA per pass, and Hatfield expects long, clock-draining possessions rather than quick scores. He also likes Texas to cover as a smaller edge, pointing to a Florida defense that ranks 123rd in success rate allowed and last (136th) in third- and fourth-down success allowed.
Mississippi State vs. LSU
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- TV: ESPN
- Analyst: Chris Hatfield
Top pick: LSU -14.5
Chris Hatfield's Mississippi State vs. LSU predictions like the Tigers at -14.5 and rate it as playable to 55%.
Mississippi State's offense is fifth in adjusted EPA per play, but it runs through quarterback Kamario Taylor, who is questionable with a foot injury, and leading rusher Fluff Bothwell is questionable as well.
LSU's defense ranks fourth in adjusted EPA per play and fourth in EPA per pass allowed, while Mississippi State's defense is 101st in success rate allowed. Hatfield notes the Tigers are third nationally in net adjusted EPA per play and are back home after an overtime loss. His total lean is the Under 57.5.
Ohio State vs. Indiana
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Geoff Clark
Top pick: Indiana +3.5
Geoff Clark's Ohio State vs. Indiana predictions would play the Hoosiers down to a pick'em.
He cites Indiana's edges in pass protection, standard-down success, and line yards per snap, per GameOnPaper, and notes Indiana ranks sixth in defensive rushing success rate while Ohio State is only 81st in yards per rush.
Clark also trusts Curt Cignetti in this spot. Cignetti is 6-2 straight up and 5-3 against the spread against top-10 opponents at Indiana, and the Hoosiers beat Ohio State 13-10 in the 2025 Big Ten title game. Ohio State's offensive line is reshuffled, with Austin Siereveld out for a second straight game. Clark's total lean is the Over 49.5.
3:30 p.m. ET games
Alabama vs. Tennessee
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
- Analyst: Rob Paul
Top pick: Alabama -7.5
Rob Paul's Alabama vs. Tennessee predictions don't expect the Vols' offense to keep pace with the Tide. Keelon Russell ranks third nationally in QBR (90.0), and the Crimson Tide rank in the Top 20 in offensive success rate (50.1%).
Meanwhile, George MacIntyre posted a dismal 10.3 QBR in his first start for Josh Heupel, a seven-point win over Arkansas. With MacIntyre set to start again against Alabama, Paul likes the Tide to cover -9.5 or better.
Penn State vs. Michigan
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Analyst: Colby Marchio
Top pick: Penn State +6.5
Colby Marchio's Penn State vs. Michigan predictions would love to get +7 or +7.5, but he still leans the Nittany Lions way at +6.5.
In Michigan's 20-19 loss to Iowa, the Wolverines outgained the Hawkeyes by nearly 150 yards. Last week against Minnesota, they managed just 180 total yards. Michigan's defense can only do so much.
The Nittany Lions have a far more efficient offense, averaging more than 30 points and nearly 400 total yards per game while gaining close to six yards per play.
Missouri vs. Ole Miss
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: SEC Network
- Analyst: Nick Galaida
Top pick: Ole Miss -5.5
Nick Galaida's Missouri vs. Ole Miss predictions are not going to disregard Missouri's early-season road struggles. Traders also shouldn't overlook how much this game means for the Rebels, who haven't defeated the Tigers in a football game since 1974.
The market is showing Missouri a lot of respect following consecutive blowout wins against Florida and Texas A&M, but both of those games were played at home. In its only road matchup against a ranked opponent, Missouri allowed 31 points and 499 yards of total offense to Mississippi State.
Ole Miss -5.5 is playable to 53%.
Arizona State vs. Texas Tech
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Colby Marchio
Top pick: Texas Tech -16.5
Colby Marchio's Arizona State vs. Texas Tech predictions expect the Red Raiders to lean heavily on their ground attack, while slowly suffocating the Sun Devils offense with their top-25 scoring defense.
The Red Raiders are averaging just over 180 rushing yards per game while running the ball nearly 39 times per game this season. Texas Tech or nothing, and he'd take the Red Raiders to -19.5.
Auburn vs. Georgia
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Analyst: Nick Galaida
Top pick: Georgia -20.5
Nick Galaida's Auburn vs. Georgia predictions lay the Bulldogs -20.5, playable to 54%.
He notes Georgia still won the process stats in that game, with four more first downs, 109 more net yards and nearly seven more minutes of possession. Georgia is sixth in offensive success rate, and Pro Football Focus has it as the top-graded team in the country.
Georgia has won nine straight home games against Auburn and gone 8-1 against the spread in them. Auburn's offense has sputtered, scoring 14 points against Tennessee last week. Galaida's total lean is the Under 49.5.
North Carolina vs. Duke
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN2
- Analyst: Ed Scimia
Top pick: Duke -2.5
Ed Scimia's North Carolina vs. Duke predictions back the Blue Devils at -2.5, with a willingness to lay up to -3.5.
His case starts with a North Carolina offense that averages 23.4 points and 330.4 yards per game and ranks 74th nationally at 5.9 yards per play.
Duke allows just 14.4 points per game, hasn't lost at home since last November, and is 4-0 against the spread in its last four meetings with the Tar Heels. The Blue Devils' narrow road loss last week was their first defeat and first non-cover of the season. Scimia's total lean is the Over 46.5.
7 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. ET games
Florida State vs. Miami
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Analyst: Ed Scimia
Top pick: Miami team total Over 38.5
Ed Scimia's Florida State vs. Miami predictions like Miami's team total, which he would play up to 40.5.
Miami averages 42.8 points per game against FBS opponents, while Florida State has allowed 47.0 per game in its two road games and ranks 116th in adjusted defensive EPA.
Quarterback Darian Mensah has 15 touchdown passes and no interceptions, and Miami averages 8.2 yards per play while completing 83% of its passes. Scimia's preview notes that heavy rain could leave the field slick and shift the focus toward the running game. He also likes Florida State +21.5 and the Over 55.5.
Kentucky vs. Oklahoma
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: SEC Network
- Analyst: Jason Ence
Top pick: Kentucky +6.5
Jason Ence backs the Wildcats +6.5 in his Kentucky vs. Oklahoma predictions, playable to 54%.
Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer has six turnover-worthy throws on 60 attempts in two SEC games and has also fumbled five times, and the Sooners rank 122nd in turnovers per game.
Kentucky ranks eighth in turnovers forced per game and has won consecutive games in overtime on walk-off conversions, which Ence cites as evidence of quarterback Kenny Minchey's poise. He sees an outright upset as possible if running back CJ Baxter plays. His total lean is the Under 43.5.
Notre Dame vs. BYU
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
- Analyst: Rob Paul
Top pick: Notre Dame -10.5
Rob Paul's Notre Dame vs. BYU predictions back the road team to cover -10.5 or better, with BYU missing running back LJ Martin, the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year and the engine of an offense that ranks sixth in EPA per rush. Without him, the Cougars lean on quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who is 45th in EPA per pass.
Notre Dame's defense is second nationally in available yards percentage, and fourth in rush success rate, and its offense is third in net EPA per play. Paul projects a 31-20 Irish win, with College GameDay on hand in Provo. His total lean is the Over 47.5.
Oklahoma State vs. Houston
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Colby Marchio
Top pick: Houston -4.5
Colby Marchio's Oklahoma State vs. Houston predictions highlight a favorable matchup for the Cougars against a defense that faces the 10th-most rushing attempts per game and allows nearly 170 rushing yards per contest.
With Houston's ability to sustain drives efficiently, Marchio favors the Cougars' offense in what he expects to be a high-scoring affair.
Take this up to -6.5.
Wisconsin vs. UCLA
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
- Analyst: JD Yonke
Top pick: Wisconsin +2.5
JD Yonke's Wisconsin vs. UCLA predictions would take the Badgers at any underdog price.
UCLA is 5-0 under Bob Chesney, but quarterback Nico Iamaleava is out for the season, leaving Ty Dieffenbach, who had a 9:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio at Cal Poly last season.
Wisconsin is 4-1 with its only loss to Notre Dame, allows 4.1 yards per play, and ranks second nationally in explosiveness on both sides of the ball. UCLA is 74th on both. Yonke's total lean is the Under 43.5.
10:15 p.m., 10:30 p.m., & 11 p.m. ET games
Utah vs. Colorado
- Kickoff: 10:15 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Analyst: Geoff Clark
Top pick: Colorado +14.5
Geoff Clark's Utah vs. Colorado predictions take the Buffs at +14.5 and would go down to +13.5.
He argues Utah has padded its record against soft competition, citing Pro Football Focus rankings that put Utah's schedule 120th-toughest and Colorado's ninth-toughest, and he expects Colorado to benefit from a bye week.
Clark says Colorado's 29-7 loss to No. 12 Texas Tech was closer than it looked: the Buffaloes led at halftime, had more first downs and total yards, and lost the turnover battle 4-0. He gives quarterback Isaac Wilson, who spent the past two years at Utah, a mulligan after his first start, and notes Colorado is 8-3 against the spread versus ranked teams under Deion Sanders. His total lean is the Under 49.5.
Wake Forest vs. California
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN2
- Analyst: Rob Paul
Top pick: Wake Forest -9.5
Rob Paul's Wake Forest vs. California predictions break down how the Demon Deacons have one of the country's most potent offenses, and he likes them to cover up to -10.5 on the road against a Cal program that lacks an identity.
Wake ranks top 20 in college football in both pass success rate (51.2%) and rush success rate (49.5%) and shouldn't have much trouble moving the ball consistently against a Cal defense that ranks 93rd nationally in available yards percentage (51.7%).
New Mexico vs. Hawaii
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1
- Analyst: JD Yonke
Top pick: New Mexico -14.5
JD Yonke's New Mexico vs. Hawaii predictions like the Lobos at -14.5, and he would lay anything below 17 points.
The Lobos are 5-0 against the spread with an average cover margin of 19.5 points, while Hawaii ranks 115th in offensive success rate and 121st in defensive success rate. Hawaii quarterback Micah Alejado has a nation-high 14 turnover-worthy passes.
New Mexico has a clear edge up front, ranking 15th in EPA per rush against a Hawaii defense that is 130th in EPA per rush allowed, and sustained winds around 24 mph in Honolulu should limit both passing games. Yonke's total lean is the Under 43.5.
Nebraska vs. Oregon
- Kickoff: 11 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Geoff Clark
Top pick: Oregon -6.5
Geoff Clark views the Cornhuskers as a sell-high candidate in his Nebraska vs. Oregon predictions, backing the Ducks at -6.5 and up to -8.5.
Oregon has already suffered two losses after opening the season ranked No. 2 nationally, but both came against ranked opponents in No. 18 Oklahoma State and No. 12 UCLA.
Back a desperate Oregon team at home.
More Week 7 picks
- College Football Predictions Week 7: Brad Powers’ CFB Best Bets
- College Football Top 25 Predictions Week 7: Watchability Ratings & Best Bets
- Our Favorite College Football Group of 6 Predictions: Week 7
- College Football Player Props: Week 7
- Week 7 moneyline picks
- Week 7 ATS picks
For more ways to bet the weekend, head to the Covers college football picks hub, browse today's college football matchups, and check the latest college football weather and injury reports before kickoff.
Looking ahead, see the national championship odds and Heisman Trophy odds.
Odds and lines reflect Covers previews updated Oct. 16, 2026, and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate disclosure: Covers may receive compensation if you sign up through links on this page. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Responsible gaming resources.
