The Miami Hurricanes (-21.5) will look to stay undefeated as they host the Florida State Seminoles on Saturday night.
The Seminoles have no answer for a nearly unstoppable Hurricanes offense, and I'm taking the hosts to obliterate their team total in my Florida State vs. Miami prediction.
Keep reading for my free college football picks for what should be a high-scoring affair on Saturday, Oct. 17.
Who will win Florida State vs Miami: Florida State +21.5 (52%)
The Miami Hurricanes are a national championship contender and in a completely different class than the Florida State Seminoles this season, but this large a spread gives me pause.
The Seminoles have shown a willingness to push the pace and go into shootouts even in a losing effort, and that has already led to relatively close losses to the likes of the Alabama Crimson Tide and SMU Mustangs.
I see that approach as having some bite against a Miami defense that ranks just 27th in the nation in adjusted EPA allowed per play -- a surprisingly mundane number for a team with outstanding raw defensive numbers.
I'm taking Florida State to cover as long as the number is 21.5 points or more.
COVERS INTEL: Miami has allowed opponents a 43.6% success rate on passing plays this season, which ranks just 66th in the nation. That opens a lane for a Seminoles offense averaging 14.3 yards per completion.
Florida State vs Miami Over/Under pick: Over 55.5 (52%)
Few games have more signs pointing to a shootout than this one. Miami has one of the country's most efficient offenses, averaging 8.2 yards per play and completing an incredible 83% of its passes.
That lines up against a Seminoles defense ranked outside the top 100 in nearly every major metric, including yards allowed per play (6.1) and opposing quarterback rating (140.9).
Mike Norvell knows this as well as anyone, and he'll understand that a shootout is his only option for a competitive game. As I noted above, questions remain about the Miami defense, and Florida State may be the first team to seriously ask them.
I'm backing the Over at totals up to 57.5 points.
TOP PICK
Florida State vs Miami prop: Miami Over 38.5 (52%)
Given the Seminoles' defensive failures this season and Miami's incredible offensive production, this prop is a must-play for me.
Miami is averaging 42.8 ppg against FBS competition this year, while Florida State has given up 47.0 points per game in its two road games this season.
The Seminoles rank a miserable 116th in adjusted defensive EPA (0.12) this season. The Florida State defense has absolutely no hope of containing Darian Mensah (15 passing touchdowns, zero interceptions) and company on Saturday.
I'm backing the Over on Miami's total at up to 40.5 points.
- Top picks: 3-2, +0.82 units
- Combos: 0-5, -5.00 units
Florida State vs Miami odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Florida State +21.5 | Miami -21.5
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (52%) | Under 55.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Florida State 8% | Miami 93%
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Florida State vs Miami weather
While the likely thunderstorms could move out of the area in time for the game, heavy rain will still create slick conditions and likely shift the focus to the running game on Saturday night.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Florida State vs Miami trend to know
The Over is 6-1 in Miami's last seven games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Florida State vs. Miami.
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How to watch Florida State vs Miami
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla. |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Florida State vs Miami latest injuries
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