The Week 7 Saturday slate is a midseason reward for college football fans, with it featuring six AP Top 25 matchups and being arguably the best week of the season.
A pair of top-10 showdowns headline my Week 7 college football Top 25 predictions: a Big Ten Championship rematch between Ohio State and Indiana, and a rare Notre Dame vs. BYU matchup in Provo, Utah, with College GameDay on campus.
My college football picks also break down all 14 other games involving Top 25 teams this week.
College football Top 25 predictions & watchability ratings: Week 7
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Watch Rating |
Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
 Ohio Statevs.  Indiana |
5/5 | +3.5 ⚪ |
50% |
 Notre Damevs.  BYU |
5/5 | -9.5 🟡 |
54% |
 Missourivs.  Ole Miss |
4/5 | +6.5 ⚪ |
53% |
 Alabamavs.  Tennessee |
4/5 | -7.5 🟡 |
53% |
 Oklahoma Statevs.  Houston |
4/5 | -3.5 ⚪ |
49% |
 Floridavs.  Texas |
4/5 | -10.5 🟢 |
51% |
 Mississippi Statevs.  LSU |
4/5 | -13.5 🟡 |
54% |
 Wisconsinvs.  UCLA |
4/5 | -1.5 🟡 |
51% |
 Kentuckyvs.  Oklahoma |
3/5 | -5.5 🟡 |
52% |
 Arizona Statevs.  Texas Tech |
3/5 | -9.5 🟢 |
48% |
 Virginiavs.  SMU |
3/5 | +9.5 🟡 |
52% |
 Auburnvs.  Georgia |
2/5 | -20.5 🟡 |
51% |
 Florida Statevs.  Miami |
2/5 | -21.5 🟢 |
48% |
 Wake Forestvs.  Cal |
2/5 | -6.5 🟢 |
50% |
 Northwesternvs.  Michigan State |
1/5 | -6.5 🟢 |
50% |
 Utahvs.  Colorado |
1/5 | -15.5 🟢 |
50% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Tier 1 watchability for Week 7 (must-watch)
Ohio State (4) vs Indiana (5)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 17 | Noon ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Indiana +3.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Ohio State (61%) ⚪
- Over/Under pick: Over 50.5 ⚪
The defending national champions have clearly taken a step back this year, particularly on offense, but Indiana can make this Big Ten Championship rematch a game and keep it within a field goal against Ohio State. I like IU to cover +3.5 or better.
Although the Hoosiers are coming off a messy performance against an underrated Nebraska team, their defense still looked potent. This will cause problems for a Buckeyes offense missing its best lineman, Austin Siereveld, and struggling to run the ball consistently.
While stopping Heisman Trophy odds-favorite Jeremiah Smith from going Super Saiyan when Julian Sayin throws his way is nearly impossible, Indiana can slow this Ohio State offense by creating disruptive plays.
The Hoosiers' defense ranks Top 25 nationally in havoc rate (19.1%), available yards percentage (37.5%), and success rate (37.7%), and it can expose the lack of star power around Smith.
Indiana's offense is the X-factor, especially its ability to create explosive plays. The Hoosiers' offense is full of NFL playmakers and ranks second in the country in net EPA per play and fifth in explosiveness (1.407).
With superstar receivers Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh combining for 1,057 receiving yards and 14 TDs, plus one of the country's best running back tandems in Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr. (combined 1,199 scrimmage yards and nine TDs), Indiana has the big-play ability to give Matt Patricia's defense fits.
This should be an instant classic. With Indiana at home, Curt Cignetti's Hoosiers won't roll over against a flawed Buckeyes team.
Notre Dame (2) vs BYU (8)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 17 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Notre Dame -9.5 🟡
- ML pick: Notre Dame (77%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 47.5 🟡
This is Notre Dame's first real test and its chance to prove it's worthy of being a national championship favorite. Unfortunately for BYU, it will be without its offensive engine, LJ Martin.
With Martin out of the Cougars lineup, I like the Fighting Irish to cover -10.5 or better, even with College GameDay on campus in Provo. BYU's offense relies heavily on the run game: it's sixth in rush success rate (54.3%) vs. 49th in pass success rate (46.5%). If Notre Dame forces Bear Bachemier to beat its defense with his arm, the Cougars will collapse.
The Fighting Irish have one of the best defenses in college football, ranking fourth in defensive rush success rate (33.8%). BYU hasn't been able to run the ball with anyone but Bachmeier since Martin's injury, and this is the best run defense the Cougars have faced all season.
If Leonard Moore & Co. stop Bachmeier and contain Legend Glasker, BYU's defense will eventually succumb to a loaded Notre Dame offense that's finally found a running back in Jonaz Walton.
With Walton taking some of the pressure off CJ Carr, Notre Dame's offense has been a machine, ranking third in the country in both offensive success rate (53.1%) and net EPA per play. BYU just won't have the juice on offense to keep up.
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Tier 2 watchability for Week 7 (worth watching)
Missouri (13) vs Ole Miss (9)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 17 | 3:30 p.m. ET | SEC Network
- ATS pick: Missouri +6.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Ole Miss (66%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Under 58.5 ⚪
Both teams are fringe College Football Playoff contenders and have star quarterback talent. That quarterback duel is the reason to tune in, especially considering Missouri's Austin Simmons started last season as Ole Miss' QB1 before an injury opened the door for Trinidad Chambliss to Wally Pipp him.
The change of scenery has been good for Simmons, who has quickly generated NFL draft buzz as Missouri's signal-caller. He's helped the Tigers cover in two consecutive SEC games, and I like Missouri to make it three straight at +5.5 or better against a Rebels defense that's struggled (97th in net adjusted EPA per play).
While Simmons' former backup has made Ole Miss' offense one of the most potent in the country, the Rebels haven't seen very many quality defenses. Though the QBs will be the talk of the matchup, Missouri has the clear defensive advantage.
The Tigers defense is fourth nationally in havoc rate (22.8%) and fifth in net adjusted EPA per play. Their pass rush is bloodthirsty, with the eighth-most sacks in the country (18), and should force Chambliss to put on the Superman cape to beat them.
Alabama (6) vs Tennessee (14)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 17 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Alabama -7.5 🟡
- ML pick: Alabama (74%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 50.5 ⚪
It's the third Saturday in October, which means the Alabama-Tennessee rivalry is back. It's another chance for the winning program and fanbase to light up victory cigars. Coming off a gutting road loss to No. 1 Georgia, I expect Alabama to bounce back in a big way against a Tennessee team with a QB problem (I like the Tide to cover up to -9.5).
The Volunteers announced that freshman QB Faizon Brandon should be healthy enough to face the Crimson Tide, but both he and George MacIntyre have struggled under center this season. Brandon ranks 90th in QBR this season (47.0), and MacIntyre just put up a 10.3 QBR against a bottom-feeding Arkansas team.
Neither quarterback should make much of a dent against a Crimson Tide defense that's 22nd in havoc rate (19.6%) and 23rd in success rate (39.3%). The Volunteers offense shines with its run game, but that's also where Alabama's defense excels, ranking in the Top 10 in rush success rate (35.4%).
If the Tide stop Tennessee's rushing attack, Keelon Russell and the offense will pull away in the second half. Russell has Alabama ranked 10th in the country in available yards percentage (60.6%) and 16th in success rate (50.1%).
Oklahoma State (18) vs Houston (20)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 17 | 7:30 p.m. ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Houston -3.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Houston (63%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Under 62.5 🟡
This matchup has seen some serious line movement. Houston was a 5.5-point favorite, and I liked Oklahoma State to cover. Now that the line is -3.5, I'm taking the Cougars to cover at home, but only at -3.5 or better.
Houston's defense has been much more reliable lately and should give Drew Mestemaker problems. The Cougars have held their last two opponents to 17 or fewer points, including Kansas State on the road.
As long as Houston can keep Mestemaker and the Pokes' passing attack under control, the Cougars offense should do the heavy lifting to cover the spread. Houston has one of the best offenses in college football, ranking second in success rate (54.7%) and fifth in net adjusted EPA per play.
This is the best offense Oklahoma State has seen this season, and Eric Morris' team has an average-at-best defense, ranking 68th in available yards percentage (46.5%).
Houston QB Conner Weigman is on a tear, too. He's ninth in the country in QBR (85.3) and has 10 total TDs in three conference games.
Florida vs Texas (7)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 17 | noon ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Texas -10.5 🟢
- ML pick: Texas (78%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 51.5 🟡
Neither team has acquitted itself well lately, but Florida has far bigger problems than Texas. The Gators defense is nonexistent, and starting QB Aaron Philo is dealing with an injury that could keep him out of this game.
Meanwhile, Texas beat itself against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry last week, despite posting a higher net success rate than the Sooners. This is the perfect get-right game for Arch Manning and the Longhorns offense, and I'd take Texas to cover up to 13.5 points.
Across four Power Four games this season, Florida's defense has given up 37.5 points per game and allowed the opposing quarterbacks to post QBRs of at least 83.6 in three of those games. So even if you aren't a Manning believer (I still am), he should toast a Florida defense that's 124th in success rate (51.5%).
Texas' defense should do the rest, with the Longhorns ranking in the Top 10 in havoc rate (21.2%), available yards percentage (29.9%), and net adjusted EPA per play. As long as Texas slows Jadan Baugh down, the Longhorns will win big.
Mississippi State (16) vs LSU (22)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 17 | noon ET | ESPN/Disney+
- ATS pick: LSU -13.5 🟡
- ML pick: LSU (82%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 57.5 ⚪
Will Kamario Taylor play for Mississippi State?
He's likely to be a game-time decision, but either way, I like LSU to win big. If Taylor suits up, I'd play LSU at -13.5 or better. If he doesn't, the Tigers are worth taking up to -16.5.
Sure, LSU has been a disappointment if you anticipated a CFP run in Year 1 under Lane Kiffin. If you didn't, it's gone as expected: High highs and low lows. However, the talent gap between the Bulldogs and Tigers is massive, especially defensively.
LSU has one of the country's most athletic defenses and ranks fourth in net adjusted EPA per play, eighth in havoc rate (21.4%), and 13th in success rate (37.4%). Whether it's a banged-up Taylor or backup QB Parker Puckett under center, Mississippi State's offense won't compensate for its defense.
The Bulldogs have one of the worst defenses in the Power Four, ranking 101st in success rate (46.5%). That won't contain a pissed-off Kiffin and an LSU offense that's 20th in available yards percentage (57.7%) for four quarters.
Wisconsin vs UCLA (12)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 17 | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBC
- ATS pick: UCLA -1.5 🟡
- ML pick: UCLA (56%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 43.5 ⚪
UCLA's Bob Chesney has done the best coaching job in the country through the first half of the regular season. Even with starting QB Nico Iamaleava out for this game (and potentially the season), the Bruins are the play up to -5.5.
Cross-country games are never easy for Big Ten programs, and Wisconsin is walking into a matchup against one of the feistiest teams in the country.
UCLA is 5-0 against the spread, covering by an average margin of 16.9 points. And it's not as if Iamaleava was the biggest reason for that success, as he's 129th nationally in QBR (28.8).
UCLA's run game and defense have turned the Bruins into potential CFP contenders in Chesney's first season. The Bruins offense is fourth nationally in EPA per rush, and its defense is third nationally in success rate (35.1%).
That makes this a terrible matchup for a Wisconsin team with a shaky offense (61st in available yards percentage) and a defense that struggles to stop the run (36th in EPA per rush).
Tier 3 watchability for Week 7 (interesting)
Kentucky (15) vs Oklahoma
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 17 | 7:30 p.m. ET | SEC Network
- ATS pick: Oklahoma -5.5 🟡
- ML pick: Oklahoma (69%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Over 43.5 🟡
Talk about two teams coming off massive, season-swinging wins. Kentucky beat LSU with a game-winning two-point conversion in overtime last week, while Oklahoma won Red River on a walk-off field goal. Despite the Wildcats being the ranked team, I like OU to cover -6.5 or better.
This game will come down to Oklahoma's defensive line vs. Kentucky's offensive line, the top unit for each team. I think the Sooners win that battle. OU's defense is in the Top 10 in EPA per pass, EPA per rush, and available yards percentage (30.4%).
Kentucky's Kenny Minchey has been one of the country's most sporadic QBs (three games with a QBR of 81+ and two with a QBR below 10), and if OU stops the Wildcats' run game, Minchey won't make enough plays to win in a hostile environment.
Arizona State vs Texas Tech (10)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 17 | 3:30 p.m. ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Texas Tech -9.5 🟢
- ML pick: Texas Tech (84%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 48.5 🟡
Although Texas Tech hasn't played up to its ranking this season, it should blow out an Arizona State team with massive flaws. The Red Raiders can cover up to -16.5 against a Sun Devils team that has failed to cover in three of its four FBS games.
ASU's offense is a complete mess, ranking 118th in net EPA per play and 100th in available yards percentage (40.5%). That won't cut it against a Red Raiders defense with one of the nation's most disruptive front sevens.
Texas Tech is one of only three Power Four teams with at least eight interceptions and 10 sacks this season, and it's averaging 22.4 pressures per game. As long as QB Will Hammond plays within himself, the Red Raiders will win decisively.
Virginia vs SMU (24)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 17 | noon ET | The CW
- ATS pick: Virginia +9.5 🟡
- ML pick: SMU (74%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Over 51.5 🟡
In a matchup between two of the most inconsistent Power Four teams, I'll take the points (at +7.5 or better), especially because Virginia matches up well with SMU. The Mustangs love to throw the ball and hate to stop the run, while the Cavaliers are at their best defending the pass and running the ball.
SMU is third in the country in passing yards per game, but QB Kevin Jennings hasn't faced many quality pass defenses. Virginia's defense ranks 27th nationally in EPA per pass and second in pass success rate (33.1%).
Virginia's offense is at its best when it can lean on the ground game, which spells trouble for SMU. The Mustangs defense is 92nd in EPA per rush and 107th in rush success rate.
Tier 4 watchability for Week 7 (blowout brewing)
Auburn vs Georgia (1)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 17 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: Georgia -20.5 🟡
- ML pick: Georgia (91%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 48.5 🟡
A program with a lesser coach than Kirby Smart might be in a letdown spot a week after beating a top-10 team outright as an underdog, but this is Georgia, and in Kirby we trust. I like the Bulldogs to cover -23.5 or better at home against an Auburn team that just suspended its best defender, Xavier Atkins.
The Alex Golesh era at Auburn has gotten off to an ugly start, with the Tigers just 1-4 ATS (0-4 against P4 teams) and poised to get blown out by Georgia. The Bulldogs rank in the Top 25 nationally in available yards percentage on both sides of the ball and are 5-1 ATS this season.
Florida State vs Miami (3)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 17 | 7 p.m. ET | ESPN/Disney+
- ATS pick: Miami -21.5 🟢
- ML pick: Miami (92%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 55.5 🟢
Just when it looked like Mike Norvell had Florida State playing respectable football that could make this rivalry game fun, the Seminoles lost by 24 points as 4.5-point underdogs to a flawed Louisville team. Miami is far from flawed, and I like the Canes to cover up to 23.5 points against this FSU defense.
Darian Mensah leads the country in QBR (92.5), and Miami's offense leads the country in success rate (56.1%). Mensah and Malachi Toney should put on a show against a Florida State defense that ranks 104th in EPA per pass and 109th in success rate (47.7%).
Wake Forest (21) vs Cal
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 17 | 10:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
- ATS pick: Wake Forest -6.5 🟢
- ML pick: Wake Forest (76%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 53.5 ⚪
If Chesney has pulled off the best coaching job through the first half of the season, Wake Forest's Jake Dickert is probably No. 2.
The Demon Deacons are no longer scrappy overachievers. They're a legit threat in the ACC and can cover at -9.5 or better against an underachieving Cal team.
Even with Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele expected to play for the Golden Bears, there's little reason to believe Cal can keep up with Wake's offense. The Demon Deacons lead the country in net EPA per play on offense while Cal ranks 122nd by that same metric.
Gio Lopez and Carlos Hernandez are almost as potent as Mensah and Toney in the ACC.
Tier 5 watchability for Week 7 (it's still football)
Northwestern (25) vs Michigan State
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 17 | noon ET | Peacock
- ATS pick: Northwestern -5.5 🟢
- ML pick: Northwestern (73%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 48.5 🟡
Pat Fitzgerald coaching against his former team could get ugly. I love Northwestern against Fitzgerald's Michigan State and would take the Wildcats to cover up to -9.5.
In Year 4 under David Braun, Northwestern is putting together its best season in years, thanks to a Chip Kelly offense that every old-school football fan loves. With former MSU QB Aidan Chiles running the Wing-T half the time, the Wildcats rank 11th nationally in available yards percentage (60.5%).
Utah (11) vs Colorado
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 17 | 10:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: Utah -15.5 🟢
- ML pick: Utah (86%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 49.5 🟡
Colorado is spiraling, and it's hard to see how Deion Sanders can stop the Buffaloes' slide against a Utah team that's 5-0 ATS and has beaten its three Power Four opponents by an average of 21.3 points. I like Utah to cover up to -19.5.
With Colorado starting former Utah QB Isaac Wilson, there's no shot that the Buffaloes can keep up with a Utes offense ranked ninth nationally in offensive success rate (51.4%).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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