College GameDay is in Provo, Utah, on Saturday for Notre Dame and BYU's top-10 clash at LaVell Edwards Stadium at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Fighting Irish are 10.5-point road favorites, and my Notre Dame vs. BYU prediction and college football picks back CJ Carr & Co. to be the difference against a Cougars team missing the engine of its offense.
TOP PICK
Who will win Notre Dame vs BYU: Notre Dame -10.5
With BYU missing running back LJ Martin, I like Notre Dame to cover -10.5 or better on the road in the Fighting Irish's first game in Provo since 2004.
Martin, the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, is the heart and soul of a Cougars offense that has had far more success feeding him (No. 6 in EPA per rush) than throwing the ball with Bear Bachmeier (No. 45 in EPA per pass).
Now, a Notre Dame defense that ranks No. 2 in available yards percentage (26.7%) and No. 4 in rush success rate can focus on stopping Bachmeier as a runner and make the Cougars' offense one-dimensional.
Once the Fighting Irish's offense (No. 3 nationally in net EPA per play) builds a lead, BYU won't be able to throw its way back into the game.
COVERS INTEL: Notre Dame's offense is as efficient as it gets, ranking No. 2 nationally in available yards percentage (67%) and top 10 in both pass success rate (56.1%) and rush success rate (50.9%).
Notre Dame vs BYU Over/Under pick: Over 47.5
Though I don't expect BYU to put up more than 24 points on Notre Dame's defense, I think the Fighting Irish will do enough of the scoring for the Over to hit, and I'd play it up to 49.5.
The reason Notre Dame is a college football national championship odds favorite is the offense's efficiency this season. The Fighting Irish rank second nationally in points per opportunity (5.37) and third in offensive success rate (53.1%).
The emergence of freshman running back Jonaz Walton (301 rushing yards in his last two games) is the X-factor against BYU. CJ Carr is arguably the best QB in the country, but with a threat like Walton, Notre Dame can push a BYU defense that's shakier against the run (No. 78 in EPA per rush) than the pass (No. 33 in EPA per pass).
Notre Dame vs BYU combo
Given the energy that the fans will bring to LaVell Edwards Stadium, especially with College GameDay on campus, I think Notre Dame's offense will get off to a bit of a slow start.
But Marcus Freeman and Chris Ash's defense shouldn't have much trouble against BYU with Martin out. The Fighting Irish's defense ranks No. 2 in early-down EPA per play and should put Bachmeier into third-and-long situations he can't get out of with his arm.
In the second half, the Cougars' defense will get gassed trying to make up for its offense, and Notre Dame should strike often. I have the Irish winning 31-20.
Notre Dame vs BYU combo
- Notre Dame -10.5
- Notre Dame team total Over 29.5
- First half Under 23.5
- Top picks: 13-9, +2.73 units
- Combos: 5-17, -1.84 units
Notre Dame vs BYU odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Notre Dame -10.5 | BYU +10.5
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (48%) | Under 47.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Notre Dame 78% | BYU 22%
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Notre Dame vs BYU weather
The weather in Provo on Saturday night is expected to be ideal football weather and will not impact the game.
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Notre Dame vs BYU trend to know
Notre Dame has hit the team total Over in nine of its last 12 games (+5.50 units/40% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Notre Dame vs. BYU.
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How to watch Notre Dame vs BYU
| Location | LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Notre Dame vs BYU latest injuries
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