My Week 7 card starts with two midweek games before things really heat up on Saturday.
Ohio State heads to Bloomington for a Top-5 showdown with unbeaten Indiana, Missouri visits Ole Miss in a huge SEC matchup, and there are plenty of underdogs looking to shake things up.
My college football moneyline picks cover 12 games from Wednesday through Saturday, with a mix of favorites I trust and a few outright upsets I think are worth taking a shot on.
Here's who I'm backing to win outright, with more college football picks available throughout the week.
Week 7 college football moneyline picks
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| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Western Kentucky vs  Sam Houston |
49% |
 Georgia Southern vs  Old Dominion |
61% |
 Ohio State vs  Indiana |
62% |
 Kansas vs  Kansas State |
64% |
 Florida Atlantic vs  Army |
45% |
 Cincinnati vs  West Virginia |
47% |
 Missouri vs  Ole Miss |
65% |
 UNLV vs  Air Force |
50% |
 North Carolina vs  Duke |
59% |
 Oklahoma State vs  Houston |
63% |
 Wisconsin vs  UCLA |
47% |
 Kentucky vs  Oklahoma |
67% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 7 CFB moneyline picks
Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston: Sam Houston
Sam Houston is just 1-4, but Wednesday's matchup looks a lot more manageable than some of the games the Bearkats have played this season. Western Kentucky is 2-4 and has leaned on quarterback Brock Glenn and its passing game to move the ball. The Hilltoppers could have trouble putting together long drives against a Sam Houston defense that's been better than its offense.
WKU has also had trouble stopping the run, which should give Sam Houston a chance to get something going on offense and keep the ball away from the Hilltoppers. The Bearkats are back at Bowers Stadium after a rough stretch on the road, and I like their chances of pulling off the home upset.
Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion: Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern lost 27-24 to James Madison last weekend, but there was plenty to like about that performance. The Eagles threw for 343 yards and three touchdowns against the Dukes and nearly forced overtime before missing a field goal that would have tied the game.
Old Dominion is averaging just 18.2 points per game, and that's a problem against a Georgia Southern team that can move the ball through the air. Max Johnson gives the Eagles a passing game that can put points on the board, although injuries and a short week are concerns. If Georgia Southern can pick up where it left off against James Madison, I like the Eagles to win in Norfolk.
Ohio State vs Indiana: Ohio State
Indiana got its biggest scare of the season last Saturday, escaping Nebraska with a 20-17 win to stay unbeaten. The Hoosiers have been excellent on both sides of the ball, and Ohio State isn't going to roll into Bloomington and win just because it's Ohio State.
But the Buckeyes are coming off a 45-16 win over Maryland, and I trust their defense to make things difficult for Indiana's offense. Julian Sayin needs to take better care of the football, especially against a Hoosiers defense that can turn mistakes into points. This should be Ohio State's toughest test yet, but I give the Buckeyes the edge in a battle of two Big Ten heavyweights.
Kansas vs Kansas State: Kansas State
Neither team looked particularly good last weekend. Kansas lost 41-24 at Utah, while Kansas State got handled 35-16 at home by Houston. But if there's one player I trust to make a difference in the Sunflower Showdown, it's Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnson.
Johnson can hurt defenses with his arm and his legs, and Kansas State has absolutely owned this rivalry. The Wildcats have won the last 17(!) meetings, including a 42-17 victory in 2025. Kansas State has plenty to clean up defensively, but with Johnson leading the offense and the game in Manhattan, I'm backing the Wildcats to extend that streak.
Florida Atlantic vs Army: Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is off to a 4-1 start, its best through five games since 2004. The Owls have won four straight and scored 186 points through five games, a big improvement for an offense that struggled to find its footing last season.
Here's what I really like about this matchup: FAU has already beaten an option team this season, knocking off Navy 38-30. That experience should come in handy against an Army offense that wants to run the ball, eat up the clock, and keep opposing offenses on the sidelines. The Black Knights will try to slow this game down, but FAU has already shown it can score against that style of football. Give me the Owls to win at West Point.
Cincinnati vs West Virginia: Cincinnati
Cincinnati went into its bye week at 4-1 after getting thumped 34-7 by Arizona. It was an ugly loss, no question, but I'm not throwing out everything the Bearcats did before that. They had already beaten Kansas State 31-26 and shown they can hang with Big 12 competition.
Now they get a West Virginia defense that just gave up 52 points to Arizona. That's exactly the kind of matchup Cincinnati needs coming out of its bye. The Bearcats have had an extra week to figure out what went wrong offensively, and the Mountaineers haven't given us much reason to trust their defense. I'll take Cincinnati to win in Morgantown.
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Missouri vs Ole Miss: Ole Miss
Missouri is coming off an impressive 27-6 win over Texas A&M, but now the Tigers have to deal with an Ole Miss offense that just hung 52 points on Vanderbilt. Trinidad Chambliss threw three touchdown passes in that 52-17 win, helping the Rebels bounce back from their loss to Florida.
Missouri's defense is the biggest concern for Ole Miss after the Tigers held Texas A&M to just six points. But the Rebels can score in a hurry, and they're playing at home. Missouri has the defense to make this a fight, but I trust Chambliss and the Ole Miss offense to do enough to win in Oxford.
UNLV vs Air Force: Air Force
UNLV pulled off a big 13-7 win over previously unbeaten North Dakota State last weekend, but the offense didn't exactly light it up. The Rebels managed just 13 points and got plenty of help from three Bison interceptions.
Air Force, meanwhile, ran all over Northern Illinois in a 28-7 win, piling up 439 rushing yards despite using a backup quarterback. The Falcons are going to run the football, then run it some more, and make UNLV prove it can stop them. The Rebels have a solid defense, but I like Air Force's chances of controlling the clock and grinding out a home win.
North Carolina vs Duke: Duke
North Carolina heads into this rivalry game feeling pretty good after beating ranked Pittsburgh 21-17. Duke, on the other hand, just suffered its first loss of the season, falling 28-25 at Georgia Tech.
But the Blue Devils weren't exactly shut down in that loss. They finished with 418 total yards and converted 10 of 17 third downs. Running back Nate Sheppard and quarterback Walker Eget give Duke a couple of ways to move the chains, and that's going to matter against a North Carolina team coming off its biggest win of the season. The Tar Heels are dangerous, but I like Duke to bounce back at home.
Oklahoma State vs Houston: Houston
Both teams are coming off big wins. Houston went into Manhattan and beat Kansas State 35-16, while Oklahoma State took care of UCF 42-28.
Conner Weigman has given Houston's offense a spark, and Willie Fritz has the Cougars playing well heading into this ranked Big 12 showdown. Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker can put points on the board, so Houston's defense can't afford to take the night off. But after watching the Cougars handle Kansas State on the road, I trust them to take care of business back home at TDECU Stadium.
Wisconsin vs UCLA: Wisconsin
UCLA pulled off one of the biggest wins of last weekend, beating Oregon 17-15 in Eugene to stay unbeaten. But the Bruins may have lost something even more important, with starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava suffering a leg injury and backup Ty Dieffenbach finishing the game.
Wisconsin is coming off a dominant 31-3 win over Michigan State, and its defense is more than capable of making life miserable for a UCLA offense that could be without its starting quarterback. The Bruins are tough defensively and have home field, but there's a lot of uncertainty under center. At 47%, I'll take my chances with the Badgers pulling off the road upset.
Kentucky vs Oklahoma: Oklahoma
Both teams are riding high after dramatic wins. Oklahoma beat Texas 27-24 on a walk-off field goal, while Kentucky survived a 35-34 overtime thriller against LSU.
Oklahoma's defense came up big against Texas, including a late interception that helped set up the winning field goal. The Sooners' offense still has its problems, which makes laying a big price against Kentucky a little uncomfortable. But Oklahoma has a defense that can keep it in games even when the offense struggles. With the Sooners back home in Norman, I'll trust that defense to come through again.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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