Last week was ROUGH, and I got humbled to the tune of -5.40 units.
While we’re still in the green on the season, it’s time for a serious bounce-back, and the Green Bay Packers defeating the Dallas Cowboys in prime time ranks among my favorite NFL moneyline picks.
Let’s get back on track with our NFL picks for Week 6.
My NFL moneyline record is 48-31 this season for +2.08 units.
NFL moneyline picks for Week 6
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Seahawks vs  Broncos |
44% |
 Texans vs  Jaguars |
57% |
 Titans vs  Colts |
76% |
 Panthers vs  Eagles |
50% |
 Steelers vs  Buccaneers |
44% |
 Ravens vs  Browns |
70% |
 Saints vs  Giants |
49% |
 Bears vs  Falcons |
43% |
 Jets vs  Patriots |
76% |
 Cardinals vs  Rams |
88% |
 Chargers vs  Chiefs |
79% |
 Bills vs  Raiders |
69% |
 Cowboys vs  Packers |
54% |
 Commanders vs  49ers |
78% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 6 NFL moneyline picks
Seahawks vs. Broncos: Broncos
Sam Darnold is back to seeing ghosts, having thrown five interceptions over his last three games.
With the Broncos' defense coming off its best outing of the season (five sacks and three forced fumbles against LAC), expect the Mile High advantage to loom large in a low-scoring battle where points will be at a premium.
Check out our full Seahawks vs. Broncos predictions!
Texans vs. Jaguars: Jaguars
On top of making the trip across the pond, the Texans will be playing away from home for the third time in four weeks.
With Jacksonville's defense allowing just 14.0 points per game (second-fewest in the NFL), I'm backing the Jags to make it consecutive wins in London.
Titans vs. Colts: Colts
Despite my complete despair as a Colts fan, a "free space" matchup against the Titans will keep this team afloat (for now).
The Titans' offense ranks dead last in total yards per game, and Indy outscored Tennessee by a combined 45 points in their two meetings last season.
Expect the Colts to successfully punch down and give the fan base another dose of false hope.
Panthers vs. Eagles: Panthers
While the Panthers are fresh off a bye week, the banged-up Eagles will be battling jet lag after returning from London, not to mention the sting of an improbable late-game collapse against the Jags.
Philly’s offense has fallen off a cliff in the second half of games this season, so I’m anticipating a boo-fest at the Linc as Carolina pulls away late.
Steelers vs. Buccaneers: Buccaneers
Having had an extra three days to prepare for a Steelers offense that was bailed out by two explosive plays from Jaylen Warren, I'm giving the Bucs a slight edge at home.
The Bucs rank second in fewest rushing yards allowed per game, and their array of blitz packages and sim pressures will frustrate a 42-year-old QB who’s avoiding hits at all costs.
Ravens vs. Browns: Ravens
Cleveland sputtered in the Meadowlands last week and enters Week 6 as the most-penalized team in the league. The Browns now face a tough matchup against a Ravens defense that has stabilized and could get Trey Hendrickson back after he missed the last two games with a finger injury.
On the other side, Baltimore may get Lamar Jackson back under center, while Cleveland faces some uncertainty along its front seven; reigning DROY Carson Schwesinger and defensive tackle Mason Graham are both questionable to play.
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Saints vs. Giants: Giants
New Orleans’ offensive line has been a mess since the injury to left tackle Kelvin Banks, and now the Saints face a Giants defense that ranks in the top five in pass rush win rate, per ESPN.
New York is getting the job done in close games, and I'm rolling with the G-Men as short home dogs.
Bears vs. Falcons: Falcons
Even if Caleb Williams makes his return under center, I expect Atlanta's elite pass rush to give Chicago fits.
The Bears' defense has also been getting shredded on the ground, ranking 27th in EPA allowed per rush. I like Bijan Robinson to have a big day as Atlanta gets off the mat and bounces back.
Jets vs. Patriots: Patriots
New England boasts the second-hardest strength of victory this season, and the Patriots now face a depleted Jets offense in Foxborough. Wide receivers Adonai Mitchell and Omar Cooper Jr. are already sidelined, while running back Breece Hall and tight end Kenyon Sadiq are both questionable for Sunday’s matchup.
New England is set to roll past Gang Green, and the Patriots are also 4-1 against the spread if you’re looking to back them in Chris Vasile’s Week 6 ATS predictions.
Cardinals vs. Rams: Rams
Not only has Arizona waved the white flag by trading away Marvin Harrison Jr., but its defense also ranks 31st in explosive plays allowed.
Good luck against Matthew Stafford and the Super Bowl odds leaders.
Chargers vs. Chiefs: Chiefs
While the Chiefs are fourth in fewest points allowed in the fourth quarter, the winless Chargers enter this matchup ranked 29th.
Justin Herbert continues to take a beating with little time to throw, and Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive defensive schemes will have KC feasting on LA's pivot.
Bills vs. Raiders: Bills
Despite playing without both Ed Oliver and DJ Moore, the Bills eked out a huge prime-time win against the Rams, with Josh Allen passing for 200+ yards and rushing for 120+.
Bills Mafia continues to travel with the best of them, and this will look like a home game in Sin City against a Las Vegas team that has come back down to earth after dropping two straight.
Cowboys vs. Packers: Packers
As long as Christian Parker remains the Cowboys’ DC, I’m fading Dallas until further notice, and so are Jason Logan's Cowboys vs. Packers early leans:
“Jordan Love has consistently attacked deep downfield and has thrown for 300-plus yards in three of five games this season, logging the second-most 20-plus-yard passes.
“The Cowboys are hemorrhaging explosive plays and rank last in many advanced pass-defense metrics. Also concerning is the lack of pass pressure, with only five sacks and 12 QB hits, leaving Dallas near the bottom in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate.”
Commanders vs. 49ers: 49ers
Not only are the 49ers one of just two remaining undefeated teams, but three of their wins have come against the Rams, Broncos, and Seahawks.
The Commanders couldn’t get out of their own way after fumbling away a win against the G-Men, but they won’t come close to one in Santa Clara. Give me the 49ers all day.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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