Week 7 brings one of the season's most loaded slates, and our bold college football player props break down the top five plays on the board.
From running backs Jeffery Overton Jr. and J'Koby Williams to receivers Cooper Barkate and Amare Thomas to quarterback Gunner Stockton, here are my five best college football picks this weekend.
Read on for my college football player props breakdown for Saturday, Oct. 17.
Best Week 7 college football player props
For help understanding probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jeffery Overton Jr. Over 79.5 Rushing Yards |
|
 J'Koby Williams Over 86.5 Rushing Yards |
|
 Gunner Stockton Over 214.5 Passing Yards |
|
 Cooper Barkate Over 56.5 Receiving Yards |
|
 Amare Thomas Over 50.5 Receiving Yards |
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Prop pick #1: Jeffery Overton Jr. Over 79.5 Rushing Yards
Jeffery Overton Jr. has broken out as a star for Virginia Tech in his sophomore campaign, averaging 119.7 scrimmage yards per contest. He stands a good chance of continuing his productive ways in Week 7 against a beatable Georgia Tech defense.
The Yellow Jackets have already struggled against the run (96th in EPA per rush, 102nd in EPA per rush allowed), and could be even worse after linebacker Kyle Efford medically retired following last week's contest. He led Georgia Tech in tackles for the last three seasons and was the team's main run stuffer.
Virginia Tech's biggest issue has been cluster injuries along the offensive line. That concern is mitigated against the Yellow Jackets, who are somewhat soft up front (98th in stuff rate, 92nd in line yards).
Overton has forced 29 missed tackles and averages 4.52 yards after contact per attempt, and he should shine even brighter when his offensive line isn't so far outmatched.
- Matchup: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 17 at 3:30 pm ET
- Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA
- TV: ACC Network
Prop pick #2: J'Koby Williams Over 86.5 Rushing Yards
J'Koby Williams was already a key part of the Texas Tech offense, averaging just over 100 scrimmage yards per game. He'll be even more essential now that fellow backfield mate Cameron Dickey (1,635 yards, 20 touchdowns since the start of last season) is out with injury.
The Red Raiders haven't clicked offensively, ranking 62nd in EPA per play. Finding their groove will depend on Williams, a shifty, explosive back who can generate offense quickly.
Arizona State is a fine matchup, ranking 85th in EPA per rush and 99th in rushing explosiveness allowed. The Sun Devils let Baylor run for 244 yards and three scores, and Kansas run for 179 yards, and Tech has a more potent ground game than either.
- Matchup: Arizona State vs. Texas Tech
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 17 at 3:30 pm ET
- Location: Galaxy Stadium, Lubbock, TX
- TV: Fox
Prop pick #3: Gunner Stockton Over 214.5 Passing Yards
Gunner Stockton is one of the country's better quarterbacks, and he reminded folks in Week 6 by completing 81.8% of his passes for 11.3 yards per attempt against Alabama in a weather-affected game.
The veteran doesn't always put up the most gaudy statistics, but that's partly by design. When Kirby Smart and Georgia can take the path of least resistance against overmatched opponents, they typically do.
Auburn is a happy medium: the Tigers (+19.5) can keep things reasonable without being too much of a defensive pest. That leads to more opportunities for Stockton, and he has the efficiency (10.5 yards per attempt) to capitalize.
The Tigers rank 118th in PFF's coverage grade, allowing Baylor (333 passing yards) and Florida (252) to succeed in their two matchups against competent aerial attacks.
They lead the nation in seconds per snap (21.5), giving opponents ample time to generate production.
- Matchup: Auburn vs. Georgia
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 17 at 3:30 pm ET
- Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
- TV: ESPN
Prop pick #4: Cooper Barkate Over 56.5 Receiving Yards
Cooper Barkate should see a bump in expectations after WR3 Joshua Moore was lost for the season with an upper body injury. The market isn't reflecting that, so it's time to buy the Miami wideout.
Barkate cashed in with 98 yards and a score against Clemson last time out. Malachi Toney has been playing at less than 100% and mustered just 40 yards in that game; while he could be refreshed after the bye week, all recent indicators point to Barkate needing to step up as both an interim and long-term solution.
The Newport Beach native has racked up 1,000-yard seasons at two stops (Harvard, Duke) and is an outside threat to do the same in Coral Gables with a strong second half. He should crush against a poor Florida State secondary ranking 109th in EPA per pass allowed.
- Matchup: Florida State vs. Miami
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 17 at 7:00 pm ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- TV: ESPN
Prop pick #5: Amare Thomas Over 50.5 Receiving Yards
Amare Thomas is one of the most effective wideouts in college football, and you can "buy the dip" with the Houston pass catcher in Week 7 following several lackluster performances. He's averaged 70.3 receiving yards per game since the start of last season, and we should expect that to continue.
Oklahoma State is a fine matchup as the Cowboys are a pace-up team (24.3 seconds per snap) that just surrendered 265 passing yards and four passing scores to UCF's backup quarterback.
The Knights had four different pass catchers eclipse 51 receiving yards, and none of them are as talented as Thomas.
- Matchup: Oklahoma State vs. Houston
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 17 at 7:30 pm ET
- Location: TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX
- TV: Fox
- Prop picks: 27-16, +12.08 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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