Florida and Texas meet in a big-time SEC matchup.
This game would have been a huge meeting under any circumstances, but last week has heightened things. The Gators were handled with ease by the South Carolina Gamecocks, losing their second straight and going from national darling to afterthought in the blink of an eye.
On the other side, previously No. 1 ranked Texas lost a rivalry game to the Oklahoma Sooners.
Our college football expert is backing the Longhorns to cover the 10.5-point spread but sees better value in the total in our Florida vs. Texas prediction and Week 7 college football picks on Saturday, Oct. 15.
Who will win Florida vs Texas: Texas -10.5
Have the Florida Gators been "figured out"? I'm not sure. Has Florida had extreme regression over the last few games and probably gotten to a record it should be, even if it required some extremely unbalanced games to do so? Probably so.
I'm taking the Texas Longhorns to cover this -10.5 number; it's a small edge, and I wouldn't play it past here.
Florida’s offense is (still) legit, ranking 8th in EPA per pass, but the defense has been a sieve. The Gators rank 123rd in success rate allowed (49.7%) and dead last at 136th in 3rd/4th down success allowed, so Texas doesn’t need to be explosive to sustain drives. They need to be solid, which is pretty much the definition of an Arch Manning-led offense.
On the other side, the Longhorns’ defense ranks 2nd nationally in adjusted EPA per play, 9th against the run and 11th against the pass, while allowing just 29.9% of available yards (5th).
Florida won’t trade scores all afternoon. I’ll lay it.
COVERS INTEL: The Texas defense holds opponents to a 37.9% success rate, 17th in the nation. That's the best defense Florida has faced in such metrics all season. 
TOP PICK
Florida vs Texas Over/Under pick: Under 51.5
I’m playing the Under 51.5 and would take it down to 50.5 (50%). It's my top pick.
Florida’s offense has been efficient, but it hasn’t faced a defense that controls early downs like Texas does. The Longhorns rank 5th nationally in early-down EPA per play allowed, which has opponents facing an average 3rd down distance of 8.12 yards, 15th in the country.
Florida already ranks 105th in average 3rd down distance at 7.62 yards, so expect a lot of long-yardage situations and stalled drives. Texas also ranks 6th in defensive EPA per drive, so even when the Gators move the ball, points haven’t come easily against this unit.
The Texas offense isn’t built to push this total either. It ranks 55th in success rate and 67th in EPA per pass, and gains just 46.5% of available yards (70th). Expect the Longhorns to win with long, methodical drives that drain the clock rather than quick-strike scores.
Florida vs Texas combo
This combo is built around one game script: Florida hangs around early, then Texas takes over. Coming off two straight blowouts, the Gators should come out with urgency, and an offense that ranks 8th in EPA per pass can keep them close for a half. Texas’s offense isn’t built to jump out to fast leads either.
The second half is where the Longhorns’ advantages show up. Florida’s defense ranks dead last in 3rd and 4th down success allowed, and long Texas drives should wear the Gators down, pull away on the scoreboard, and eat clock to keep this under the total.
Florida vs Texas combo
- Texas -10.5
- Under 51.5
- Florida 1st Half +6.5
- Top picks: 6-3, +2.73 units
- Combos: 2-7, +2.2 units
Florida vs Texas odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Florida +11.5 | Texas -11.5
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (50%) | Under 51.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Florida 22% | Texas 79%
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Florida vs Texas weather
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Florida vs Texas trend to know
Under is 5-1 in Longhorns last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Find more college football betting trends for Florida vs. Texas.
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How to watch Florida vs Texas
| Location | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Florida vs Texas latest injuries
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