The hottest topic in the Group of Six heading into Week 7 is conference realignment, but top talent in the Sun Belt, Mountain West, and Pac-12 continues to make its case for the G6 College Football Playoff spot.
Leading off my Week 7 Group of Six picks is an undefeated James Madison team that's set to leave for the American Conference no later than 2028.
My G6 college football picks also include Oregon State with its unlikely Heisman Trophy contender and New Mexico, which needs to avoid looking ahead to its Week 8 showdown with North Dakota State.
Week 7 Group of 6 college football picks
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| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Georgia State  James Madison |
-12.5 50% |
 Western Michigan Central Michigan |
-6.5 53% |
 Troy Louisiana |
⬆️ o49.5 48% |
 Washington State Oregon State |
-17.5 52% |
 New Mexico  Hawaii |
-7.5 52% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Group of 6 picks this week
Georgia State vs James Madison: James Madison -12.5
The news that James Madison is leaving the Sun Belt for the American Conference by 2028 shouldn't distract Billy Napier's program this week. The Dukes have one of the most well-rounded rosters in the Group of Six and should be favored by more against this fraudulent Georgia State team (I like JMU to cover as much as -16.5).
While Georgia State is off to its best start in years at 4-1, the Panthers have taken advantage of a wildly weak schedule. Its four wins have come against programs with a combined 5-19 record. And though JMU failed to cover for the first time last week (5-1 ATS this season), the Dukes have had no trouble at home.
James Madison is covering the spread at home by an average of 17.5 points. With a defense that's 25th nationally in success rate (39.5%), the Dukes should shut down a Georgia State team that's 99th in offensive success rate (41.8%) and cover for the fourth time at home this season.
Western Michigan vs Central Michigan: Western Michigan -6.5
The MAC has been a bloodbath to start the season, with it having as much parity as any conference in the country, but the defending conference champs aren't getting enough respect on the road against their rival. With the Victory Cannon on the line, Western Michigan can cover up to -8.5 against Central Michigan.
The Mustangs have recovered well from being robbed of an upset win against Michigan to start the season, with their only other loss coming to a juggernaut Boise State team. The Broncos once again have a potent run game, ranking 25th nationally in rush success rate (48.5%). That will be a problem for a CMU defense that's second-worst in the country in rush success rate (53.6%).
Last week, the Chippewas gave up 245 rushing yards and 31 points to an Ohio team that's No. 2 in the conference in points per opportunity (4.0); WMU ranks No. 1 in the MAC in that same metric (4.32). With a non-existent passing game, CMU's offense won't keep up, and WMU will win the Victory Cannon for the third time in Lance Taylor's four years leading the program.
Troy vs Louisiana: ⬆️ Over 49.5
You won't find a better quarterback name matchup in Week 7, and it helps that both QBs are among the top dual threats in the Sun Belt.
In one corner, we have Goose Crowder leading a Troy offense ranked 42nd nationally in EPA per rush and leading the conference in rushing yards per game (220.4). The Trojans are coming off a 55-point outing, thanks to Crowder's 93.7 QBR and four total touchdowns.
In the other corner, it's Lunch Winfield carrying a Louisiana offense ranked 39th nationally in EPA per play and top 50 in both EPA per pass and rush. Winfield leads the conference in rushing touchdowns (8) and has led the Ragin Cajuns to 30+ points in four of six games.
For the battle of Goose vs. Lunch, I like the Over up to 51.5 and expect this to be one of the best G6 games of Week 7.
Washington State vs Oregon State: Oregon State -17.5
In a matchup of the old Pac-12 holdovers, it's pretty clear which program hit a home run with its new head coach hire. While Washington State has stumbled in its first season under Kirby Moore, Oregon State looks like a potential adversary to Boise State in the Pac-12 Championship race with JaMarcus Shephard in charge.
The Beavers have blown out four straight non-P4 opponents, and I like them to cover up to -20.5 against the Cougars. Not only is Oregon State 6-0 ATS, but it's covering by an average of 19 points and has the best QB-wide receiver duo in the G6 in Braden Atkinson (21 TD passes lead the country) and Jesse Legree (932 receiving yards lead the country).
Legree has been so unstoppable that he's the focus of my Week 7 Heisman Trophy predictions, and he's the biggest reason why this Beavers offense is fifth nationally in net EPA per play and 11th in success rate (51%). Wazzu has one of the worst offenses in college football and doesn't stand a chance in Corvallis.
New Mexico vs Hawaii: New Mexico -7.5
One program has exceeded expectations coming into the season, and one has been among the biggest disappointments at the G6 level, so give me the team that's managed a 5-0 start ATS (4-1 straight-up) despite losing its starting QB before the season. New Mexico is a monster, and even Hawaii's home-field advantage can't save it from being devoured by the Lobos.
I'd take New Mexico to cover as many as 16.5 points, and I can't believe the Lobos aren't favored by at least double digits. Jason Eck is one of the best coaches in the country and won't get caught looking ahead to North Dakota State, especially coming off a bye week.
The Lobos' defense is the best in the G6 and ranks No. 1 nationally in havoc rate (25.8%) and No. 2 in success rate (34.5%). Hawaii's offense has been atrocious, and Micah Alejado has led the Rainbow Warriors to more than 16 points just once in their last five games.
The Lobos run game, which ranks 14th in the country in EPA per rush and averages 208.8 rushing yards per game, shouldn't have trouble scoring, either. This screams blowout.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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