Sunday Night Football is the stage for a classic NFC rivalry when the Green Bay Packers host the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6.
Green Bay got back on track with a home win over Chicago on Sunday but that isn’t winning over oddsmakers. The Cheeseheads opened as short home underdogs against a Dallas team coming off an embarrassing effort last Thursday.
My Cowboys vs. Packers predictions kick the tires on the spread and tall total for SNF, giving you my early leans and NFL picks for Oct. 18.
Cowboys vs Packers predictions
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Early Cowboys vs Packers spread pick: Packers +1.5
This spread opened with the Dallas Cowboys as 1.5-point road chalk but we’ve seen the markets swing the other way, given the Cowboys' catastrophic outing last Thursday.
This Dallas defense is bad and the Green Bay Packers can poke the soft spots, especially after watching Jordan Love air it out in the win over Chicago. Love constantly attacked deep downfield and has passed for 300+ yards in three of five games this season, logging the second most passes of 20+ yards.
The Cowboys are hemorrhaging explosive plays and sit dead last in many advanced pass defense metrics. What’s also concerning is a lack of pass pressure, with only five sacks and 12 QB hits, leaving Dallas to sit near the bottom in pass rush win rate at ESPN.
Love is the eight ranked QB in the league when kept clean at PFF (but sees a massive drop off under pressure). His offensive line has been excellent the past two games despite injuries and could get bodies back up front in Week 6.
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Early Cowboys vs Packers total pick: Over 52.5
This total opened as low as 50.5 and has blown through the key number of 51, with early opinions on the Over.
As mentioned, this Packers offense is starting to click with deep threats. Love has a history of torching the Cowboys as well, passing for six touchdowns in his last two matchups with Dallas.
As for the Cowboys, it seems like a shootout is the only path to victory. Dak Prescott and a loaded receiving corps will test any secondary, entering Week 6 as a Top 5 passing playbook.
Green Bay’s defensive numbers look OK on the surface, allowing the third fewest explosive passes, but let’s not forget this team has played three games against backup QBs (Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Chicago). Prescott is a major jump in QB competition compared to Michael Penix Jr. and Geno Smith.
I was able to take the opener Over at 50.5 and while I'm less thrilled about this adjusted total, it would be Over or nothing on SNF.
Cowboys vs Packers odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Cowboys vs Packers spread: Packers +1.5
- Cowboys vs Packers moneyline: Cowboys 50%, Packers 50%
- Cowboys vs Packers Over/Under: 52.5
How to watch Cowboys vs Packers
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026, 8:20 p.m. ET
- City: Green Bay, Wis.
- Venue: Lambeau Field
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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