The wagon that is New Mexico rumbles on with a Mountain West game against Hawaii in Week 7.
My New Mexico vs Hawaii prediction is the Lobos will stay undefeated in style, and my college football picks don't anticipate many points.
Read below for my full betting preview, and tune in to this game on FS1 at 10:30 pm ET on Saturday, Oct. 17.
TOP PICK
Who will win Mexico vs Hawaii: New Mexico -14.5
I'll take New Mexico at anything below 17 points.
The Lobos are a force to be reckoned with, going 5-0 against the spread with an average cover margin of 19.5 points per game. Jason Eck is building something that the market is struggling to keep up with, and I'm on board.
Hawaii is a mess on both sides of the ball (115th in success rate on offense, 121st on defense). It lacks the explosive receiving weapons to operate the Run-and-Shoot offense, and quarterback Micah Alejado has the most turnover-worthy passes (14) in the nation.
New Mexico holds a substantial advantage in the trenches and is much more efficient on both sides of the ball. Lobos roll.
COVERS INTEL: New Mexico's effective ground game (15th in EPA per rush; 208.8 rushing yards per game) will look like a well-oiled machine against Hawaii (130th in EPA per rush allowed).
New Mexico vs Hawaii Over/Under pick: Under 43.5
Taking Hawaii Unders has been a profitable angle this season, and I'm not jumping ship now.
The Rainbow Warriors are 1-5 O/U thanks to an offense that throws the ball at the nation's highest rate (65.3%) despite being so ineffective (116th in passing success rate).
New Mexico's defense is no joke, leading the country in both EPA per play and success rate allowed. The secondary will feast, and Alejado will be under pressure all night as the Lobos rank second in front-seven havoc.
Sustained winds of 24 mph will further impact Hawaii's defunct offense. The Lobos will therefore control the ball and the clock, and their slow tempo will lead to a low-scoring game.
New Mexico vs Hawaii combo
New Mexico has a huge edge up front, ranking 27th in offensive line yards and fourth in defensive line yards. Hawaii ranks 125th defensively, so it'll get manhandled up front as the Lobos instill their methodical, efficient approach from the opening snap.
New Mexico vs Hawaii combo
- First half Under 23.5
- New Mexico first half -7.5
- New Mexico -14.5
- Top picks: 10-6, +3.31 units
- Combos: 7-9, +22.62 units
New Mexico vs Hawaii odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: New Mexico -14.5 | Hawaii +14.5
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (53%) | Under 43.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: New Mexico 87% | Hawaii 17%
For the full slate of college football matchups, check out our college football odds board!
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New Mexico vs Hawaii weather
The strong winds (24 mph) will limit both passing attacks.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
New Mexico vs Hawaii trend to know
New Mexico is 5-0 ATS this season. Find more college football betting trends for New Mexico vs Hawaii.
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How to watch New Mexico vs Hawaii
| Location | Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, Hawaii |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
New Mexico vs Hawaii latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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