College Football Predictions Week 7: Brad Powers’ CFB Best Bets

I would play this to -11.5.

Notre Dame is one of my biggest trades of the season. Even after the line moved through the key number of 10, my Week 7 power ratings make this spread 13 points.

There’s a market misperception about Notre Dame’s strength of schedule so far. While the Fighting Irish haven't played a ranked team yet, Jeff Sagarin ranks Notre Dame’s strength of schedule No. 31. That’s a tougher schedule than those of teams like Georgia (No. 38), Ohio State (No. 45), Indiana (No. 66), Miami (No. 72) and BYU (No. 56).

Despite playing a tougher schedule than most top-10 teams, Notre Dame ranks first in net success rate, net EPA per play, and opponent-adjusted net EPA per play.

The timeless adage about winning on the road in college football is that you must pack your defense and your running game. Notre Dame has that covered, boasting the country's No. 1 defense in yards allowed per game. It has also uncovered a dynamic running back in freshman Jonaz Walton, now the highest-graded RB in college football per Pro Football Focus.

Notre Dame also doesn’t beat itself, ranking No. 1 nationally in fewest penalties and No. 2 in turnover margin.

On the other side, BYU has played just three games against top-10 opponents over the past four years, getting outscored 98-20 in those matchups. This is a big step up in competition.

Finally, BYU will be without All-Big 12 running back LJ Martin and has also lost their top three receivers from last season. The Cougars are extremely limited at the skill positions beyond QB Bear Bachmeier, and I expect Notre Dame to stack the line of scrimmage against the QB run game.

Play the Under to 49.5.

Ohio State has played seven ranked opponents since the start of the 2025 season. Those seven games averaged just 37 total points, and all seven finished with 50 points or fewer.

That includes last year’s Big Ten Championship game, when these teams combined for just 23 points.

Both teams play at a well-below-average tempo. After ranking above average in plays per minute during the nonconference slate, Ohio State has slowed things down in Big Ten play and now ranks 84th nationally in plays per minute.

Meanwhile, Indiana ranks No. 113 in plays per minute. Last week, in the Hoosiers' biggest game to date, Indiana and Nebreaska combined for just 37 points.

Both defenses remain elite. Ohio State ranks No. 1 nationally, allowing just 4.0 yards per play. Indiana hasn't allowed an opponent to score more than 24 points in 22 straight games!

Two slow-tempo teams, great defenses, and a history of low-scoring games make this my favorite total of the week.

I would play Ole Miss to -6.

Not only is Ole Miss one of my favorite power-ratings plays of the week, but it’s also one of my favorite spot plays.

First, my power ratings, which don’t consider a team's energy level, make Mississippi a 6.5-point favorite

I am concerned about a Missouri team playing its seventh straight week and coming off big-time efforts against Florida and Texas A&M. You can make a case that we’re selling high after two point-spread covers by a combined 50 points.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss should be fresh. The Rebels had a bye two weeks ago and then easily dispatched Vanderbilt by 35 points last week. They eased All-American running back Kewan Lacy back into the lineup after he missed the Florida game, and I expect a heavier workload this week.

Finally, we still have Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss against a Missouri defense that ranks No. 114 in explosiveness allowed.