We have ourselves a Big Ten Saturday afternoon clash as Penn State heads into the Big House as 6.5-point underdogs, looking to hand Michigan its third straight loss.
My Penn State vs. Michigan prediction is the Nittany Lions will stay within the number on Oct. 17, with kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS from Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor.
Find out why in my free college football picks for Week 7.
TOP PICK
Who will win Penn State vs Michigan: Penn State +6.5
I would love to get +7 or +7.5 on Penn State, but I still lean the Nittany Lions way at +6.5.
Michigan's offense is the reason the Wolverines have been unable to pull out wins over the last few weeks. How can they win when quarterback Bryce Underwood keeps turning the ball over?
Michigan's last two losses have come by a combined seven points. In those games, Underwood threw for 377 yards and two touchdowns, but also had three interceptions.
In Michigan's 20-19 loss to Iowa, the Wolverines outgained the Hawkeyes by nearly 150 yards. Last week against Minnesota, they managed just 180 total yards. Michigan's defense can only do so much.
The Nittany Lions have a far more efficient offense, averaging more than 30 points and nearly 400 total yards per game while gaining close to six yards per play.
I like Penn State at +6.5, and honestly, I'd back it at just about any number in this matchup.
COVERS INTEL: Penn State ranks 18th nationally in adjusted defensive EPA per play. With the Wolverines struggling to create separation offensively, the Nittany Lions should have a strong chance to stay within the +6.5.
Penn State vs Michigan Over/Under pick: Under 42.5
It is awfully hard to avoid pressing the button on the Under in this matchup, with both teams allowing fewer than 19 points per game this season.
The Wolverines rank 12th in opponent points per game and second in the country in total yards allowed, surrendering just 241 yards per game. The Nittany Lions aren't far behind, ranking 29th and 22nd in those respective categories.
Both teams are on losing streaks and desperate for a win. The only way either team pulls this one out is by playing to its strengths, which means leaning on two lights-out defensive units. This should be a low-scoring affair, with both defenses dictating the pace from start to finish.
Get ready to root for NO POINTS! I wouldn't play this any lower than 42.
Penn State vs Michigan combo
With both teams boasting talented defenses, I lean toward the Under. It's also tough to back the favorite when its quarterback has been unreliable and keeps turning the ball over.
The Nittany Lions are worth backing at +6.5, especially in a game that should feature plenty of defensive stops and limited scoring. If you combo all three plays, you get 4.43x.
Penn State vs Michigan combo
- Penn State +6.5
- Under 42.5
- Penn State first half +3.5
- 2026 picks: 43-37-2, +6.30 Units
Penn State vs Michigan odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Penn State +6.5 | Michigan -6.5
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (51%) | Under 42.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Penn State 69% | Michigan 31%
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Penn State vs Michigan weather
College football weather has finally arrived in the Big Ten! Ann Arbor will see temperatures in the low 50s, with a slight wind of 7.8 mph. The Big House should be the perfect place to be for some classic Big Ten football!
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Penn State vs Michigan trend to know
Under is 6-1 in Wolverines last 7 games as a home favorite.
Find more college football betting trends for Penn State vs. Michigan.
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How to watch Penn State vs Michigan
| Location | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich. |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Penn State vs Michigan latest injuries
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