My Ohio State vs. Indiana prediction is riding with the home underdog as Bloomington takes center stage for a historic showdown.
Saturday’s noon ET clash on FOX’s Big Noon Saturday marks Memorial Stadium’s first-ever top-five matchup, and the Hoosiers are looking to make it one to remember.
The Buckeyes arrive in Bloomington as 3.5-point favorites, but the Hoosiers have matchup advantages and Curt Cignetti’s track record on their side. Find more college football picks for Saturday’s slate.
TOP PICK
Who will win Ohio State vs Indiana: Indiana +3.5
I'm locking in a trade on the Indiana Hoosiers at +3.5 over the Ohio State Buckeyes and would play them down to a pick'em.
Indiana has a strength-on-weakness edge over Ohio State in pass protection, and the Hoosiers have better standard-down success and line-yards-per-snap differentials, per GameOnPaper.com.
Meanwhile, Indiana's defense can make the Buckeyes one-dimensional on offense. The Hoosiers rank sixth in the country in defensive rushing success rate, and Ohio State is only 81st in yards per rush.
I also trust Curt Cignetti more in this spot. He's 6-2 straight up and 5-3 against the spread vs. top-10 opponents at Indiana, with a +13.8 spread differential. The Hoosiers beat Ohio State 13-10 in the 2025 Big Ten title game, and now get the Buckeyes at home with points.
COVERS INTEL: Ohio State has a reshuffled offensive line, with Austin Siereveld out for the second straight game and right tackle Phillip Daniels returning after missing the last four. Indiana is ninth nationally in sacks per game. 
Ohio State vs Indiana Over/Under pick: Over 49.5
I'd play the Over at any total below 51.5.
The Hoosiers are 15-8 to the Over in Big Ten play under Cignetti, and this is a matchup between the two best quarterbacks in the Big Ten. Indiana's Josh Hoover and Ohio State's Julian Sayin rank first and second in the Big Ten in passer efficiency, and both have elite outside weapons.
Sayin is throwing to the best wide receiver in the country, Jeremiah Smith, while Hoover has wideouts Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh, who rank 14th and 15th nationally out of 1,004 qualifiers in PFF's wide receiver grade.
According to GameOnPaper.com, both teams rank in the 90th percentile or higher in offensive explosive play rate.
Ohio State vs Indiana combo
Ohio State can land the first punch without controlling the game for four quarters. An early Buckeyes lead would force Indiana to open things up, which should create the kind of shootout this combo needs.
The key is Indiana responding instead of letting Ohio State create separation. If Cignetti makes the better second-half adjustments, like he usually does, the Hoosiers can erase an early deficit, keep the score climbing, and stay within a field goal in the process.
Ohio State vs Indiana combo
- Buckeyes first quarter -2.5
- Hoosiers +3.5
- Over 49.5
- Top picks: 13-17, -5.20 units
- Combos: 3-27, -17.84 units
Ohio State vs Indiana odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Ohio State -3.5 | Indiana +3.5
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (54%) | Under 49.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Ohio State 64% | Indiana 41%
For the full slate of college football matchups, check out our college football odds board!
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Ohio State vs Indiana weather
The forecast calls for temperatures around 50°F at kickoff, 10-mph winds, and no rain.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Ohio State vs Indiana trend to know
The Hoosiers are 15-8 against the spread in Big Ten games under Cignetti with a +11.7 spread differential. Find more college football betting trends for Ohio State vs. Indiana.
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How to watch Ohio State vs Indiana
| Location | Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Ind. |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Ohio State vs Indiana latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
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