Best NFL Picks Today

Find the best NFL bets today - Oct. 14, 2026. Free expert and computer picks for every NFL game.

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Seattle @ Denver

Oct 15 • 8:15 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

SEA

21.69 @ 21.48

DEN

Seahawks vs Broncos · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
SEA SEA	21.69	-2.5 -110 BetMGM	o40.5 -109 BetRivers	-140 Hard Rock Bet
DEN DEN	21.48	+2.5 -104 FanDuel	u40.5 -105 FanDuel	+128 FanDuel

Top Projection RJ Harvey o15.5 Rushing Yards (+100)

o14.5-107

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Houston @ Jacksonville

Oct 18 • 9:30 AM ET

Matchup Stats

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Predicted Score

HOU

21.39 @ 24.22

JAC

Texans vs Jaguars · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
HOU HOU	21.39	+3.0 -120 DraftKings	o42.5 -110 BetMGM	+125 BetRivers
JAC JAC	24.22	-3.0 +100 DraftKings	u42.5 -102 DraftKings	-144 FanDuel

Top Projection Bhayshul Tuten o7.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

o7.5-115

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Tennessee @ Indianapolis

Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

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Predicted Score

TEN

16.71 @ 26.52

IND

Titans vs Colts · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
TEN TEN	16.71	+7.5 -120 Hard Rock Bet	o43.5 -114 BetRivers	+280 theScore Bet
IND IND	26.52	-7.5 +100 Hard Rock Bet	u44.5 -118 DraftKings	-325 BetMGM

Top Projection Josh Downs o45.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

o44.5-120

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Carolina @ Philadelphia

Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

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Predicted Score

CAR

20.82 @ 22.46

PHI

Panthers vs Eagles · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
CAR CAR	20.82	+1.5 -110 Hard Rock Bet	o40.5 -110 BetMGM	+102 Caesars Odds
PHI PHI	22.46	-1.5 +100 DraftKings	u41.5 -120 theScore Bet	-114 bet365

Top Projection Jalen Hurts o23.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

o23.5-115

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Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay

Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

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Predicted Score

PIT

20.22 @ 18.49

Steelers vs Buccaneers · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
PIT PIT	20.22	+0.0 -137 BetRivers	o39.5 -105 theScore Bet	-135 theScore Bet
TB TB	18.49	+0.0 +112 BetRivers	u40.0 -109 BetRivers	+120 DraftKings

Baltimore @ Cleveland

Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

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Predicted Score

BAL

22.57 @ 18.52

CLE

Ravens vs Browns · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
BAL BAL	22.57	-4.0 -110 theScore Bet	o40.5 -122 FanDuel	-215 theScore Bet
CLE CLE	18.52	+4.0 -110 theScore Bet	u41.5 -110 Caesars Odds	+195 DraftKings

Top Projection Derrick Henry o80.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

o80.5-115

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New Orleans @ N.Y. Giants

Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

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Predicted Score

21.09 @ 20.95

NYG

Saints vs Giants · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
NO NO	21.09	-1.5 +102 Caesars Odds	o45.5 -109 BetRivers	-112 BetRivers
NYG NYG	20.95	+1.5 -115 Hard Rock Bet	u46.0 -110 Fanatics Sportsbook	+100 theScore Bet

Top Projection Jameis Winston o3.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

o3.5-115

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Chicago @ Atlanta

Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

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Predicted Score

CHI

23.81 @ 26.50

ATL

Bears vs Falcons · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
CHI CHI	23.81	-2.5 -115 theScore Bet	o49.5 -108 BetRivers	-155 theScore Bet
ATL ATL	26.50	+2.5 +110 Hard Rock Bet	u49.5 -105 Caesars Odds	+140 FanDuel

Top Projection Bijan Robinson o24.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

o24.5-115

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N.Y. Jets @ New England

Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

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Predicted Score

NYJ

16.96 @ 25.28

Jets vs Patriots · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
NYJ NYJ	16.96	+7.5 -115 DraftKings	o43.5 -108 BetMGM	+280 FanDuel
NE NE	25.28	-7.5 +100 Fanatics Sportsbook	u43.5 -105 DraftKings	-325 BetMGM

Top Projection Braelon Allen Score a Touchdown (Yes: +150)

+150

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Arizona @ L.A. Rams

Oct 18 • 4:05 PM ET

Matchup Stats

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Predicted Score

ARI

18.47 @ 31.68

Cardinals vs Rams · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
ARI ARI	18.47	+13.5 -110 Hard Rock Bet	o51.5 -113 BetRivers	+610 FanDuel
LA LA	31.68	-13.5 -110 Hard Rock Bet	u52.5 -115 theScore Bet	-714 BetRivers

Top Projection Tyler Higbee o29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

o29.5-110

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L.A. Chargers @ Kansas City

Oct 18 • 4:25 PM ET

Matchup Stats

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Predicted Score

LAC

18.67 @ 24.62

Chargers vs Chiefs · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
LAC LAC	18.67	+8.5 -114 Caesars Odds	o41.5 -110 theScore Bet	+380 DraftKings
KC KC	24.62	-8.5 -103 bet365	u42.5 -107 Caesars Odds	-425 Fanatics Sportsbook

Top Projection Patrick Mahomes o11.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

o11.5-115

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Buffalo @ Las Vegas

Oct 18 • 4:25 PM ET

Matchup Stats

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Predicted Score

BUF

29.52 @ 24.77

Bills vs Raiders · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
BUF BUF	29.52	-4.5 -110 BetMGM	o52.5 -113 BetRivers	-235 BetMGM
LV LV	24.77	+4.5 -105 Hard Rock Bet	u53.5 -110 BetMGM	+210 BetRivers

Top Projection James Cook III u92.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

u94.5-110

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Dallas @ Green Bay

Oct 18 • 8:20 PM ET

Matchup Stats

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Predicted Score

DAL

25.46 @ 27.93

Cowboys vs Packers · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
DAL DAL	25.46	+1.5 -110 Fanatics Sportsbook	o52.5 -110 BetMGM	+105 theScore Bet
GB GB	27.93	-1.5 -104 Caesars Odds	u53.5 -113 Caesars Odds	-115 BetRivers

Top Projection MarShawn Lloyd o40.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

o40.5-114

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Washington @ San Francisco

Oct 19 • 8:15 PM ET

Matchup Stats

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Predicted Score

WAS

21.87 @ 27.34

Commanders vs 49ers · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
WAS WAS	21.87	+7.5 -105 theScore Bet	o50.0 -114 BetRivers	+330 bet365
SF SF	27.34	-7.5 -108 BetMGM	u51.5 -115 theScore Bet	-400 BetMGM

Top Projection Brock Purdy o17.5 Rushing Yards (-116)

o16.5-114

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SEA @

DEN Thu, Oct 15 • 8:15 PM ET

Moneyline

SEA (-143)

Best Odds

-140

Pick made: 7 hours ago

-145

-142

-152

-145

-150

-145

-140

I'll back the Seattle Seahawks at 57% on the moneyline, as I price them closer to 61% favorites on the road against the Denver Broncos. Bo Nix relies heavily on defined reads and quick-hitting concepts to succeed, and Seattle's front four should be able to generate pressure. That will allow Mike Macdonald to drop seven into coverage, disguise looks, and disrupt Nix's pre-snap reads. Julian Love is one of the league's best safeties, and I expect him to be a major factor in confusing Nix and disrupting his ability to read the defense.

Rushing Yards

Emanuel Wilson o64.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Best Odds

o64.5 -120

Pick made: 16 hours ago

o66.5 -115

o65.5 -135

o65.5 -114

o66.5 -114

o65.5 -120

o65.5 -115

o66.5 -114

o64.5 -120

o66.5 -115

Wilson has seen snap share separation from fellow RB George Halani the past two weeks, getting 60% and 59% of snaps equating to 21 and 20 carries. And with Halani fumbling twice (to Wilson’s one fumble) in Week 5, the Seahawks will continue to count on Wilson more. He faces a Denver defense will a notable weak point against the run. The Broncos gave up 155 rushing yards to the Chargers on Sunday and enter TNF ranked 28th in EPA allowed per carry, barfing up 4.7 yards per run to foes. Denver is also worst in explosive runs allowed (seven for 20+ yards, two for 40+). Projections aren’t overly bullish on Wilson, ranging from 55 to as many as 69 yards in Week 6. My forecast comes out to 68 yards on the ground considering Seattle is a road favorite with a run-positive game script in the second half.

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HOU @

JAC Sun, Oct 18 • 9:30 AM ET

Total

u43.5 (-105)

Best Odds

u42.5 -102

Pick made: yesterday

u42.5 -108

u42.5 -102

u42.5 -110

u42.5 -109

u42.5 -110

u42.5 -105

The Texans and Jaguars rank ninth and third in defensive DVOA and fifth and seventh in defensive success rate. Houston is also travelling to London for its third road game in four weeks, and I’m expecting the offense to have trouble with the uptick in class after facing the Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans the past two weeks. Similarly, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence will have his hands full against a Houston pass rush with 10 sacks across their past three games.

Passing Yards

C.J. Stroud u252.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Projection 240.1 (Under)

Best Odds

u256.5 -114

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u252.5 -115

u256.5 -114

u253.5 -114

u255.5 -115

The Houston Texans O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.. With a feeble 60.8% Adjusted Completion% (20th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud rates as one of the least on-target QBs in the NFL.. This year, the strong Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded a mere 67.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Jacksonville's LB corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

-114 at FanDuel

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TEN @

IND Sun, Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET

Receiving Yards

Tony Pollard o8.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 10.48 (Over)

Best Odds

o8.5 -114

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o10.5 -115

o9.5 -113

o8.5 -114

o8.5 -120

o9.5 -110

The Titans are a big 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Titans to pass on 59.9% of their plays: the 7th-greatest clip on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Tony Pollard has posted a whopping 2.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That might not seem like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. This year, the deficient Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered a monstrous 51.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the worst in the NFL.

-114 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Daniel Jones o226.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Projection 259.03 (Over)

Best Odds

o224.5 -120

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o233.5 -115

o226.5 -112

o236.5 -114

o230.5 -113

o224.5 -120

o226.5 -115

The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a whopping 60.2 per game on average).. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. This year, the deficient Titans defense has allowed a colossal 80.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the biggest rate in football.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Tennessee's CB corps has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

-120 at theScore Bet

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CAR @

PHI Sun, Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET

Total

o41.5 (-111)

Best Odds

o40.5 -110

Pick made: 19 hours ago

o40.5 -110

o40.5 -111

o40.5 -110

o40.5 -120

o40.5 -110

o40.5 -112

o40.5 -110

o41.5 +100

o40.5 -115

The Panthers are fifth in offensive yards per play and sixth in passing EPA. the Eagles are 22nd in defensive EPA, so look for Carolina's explosive offense to roll. The Eagles could get back Saquon Barkely and DeVonta Smith, so expect the low totals cutoff to rise as the weak goes on. Get in early on the Over

Moneyline

CAR (-103)

Best Odds

+102

Pick made: 19 hours ago

-102

-106

-105

+100

-105

-103

+102

-105

I'll jump at the Panthers as a dog and keep them up to 53%. Philly has lost three straight and returns from a game in England, while the Panthers are coming off a bye week.

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BAL @

CLE Sun, Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET

Rushing Yards

Derrick Henry o80.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 94.27 (Over)

Best Odds

o80.5 -115

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o80.5 -115

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual approach.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to run on 52.2% of their plays: the greatest frequency on the slate this week.. The model projects Derrick Henry to accrue 22.2 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs.. Among all RBs, Derrick Henry ranks in the 97th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 73.1% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack.. Derrick Henry has run for many more adjusted yards per game (105.0) this season than he did last season (88.0).

-115 at bet365

Rushing Yards

Deshaun Watson o29.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 34.4 (Over)

Best Odds

o29.5 -115

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o29.5 -115

Our trusted projections expect the Browns to be the 8th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.97 seconds per play.. The projections expect Deshaun Watson to accrue 7.6 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.. Deshaun Watson isn't afraid to call his own number, taking on 26.6% of his offense's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 98th percentile among quarterbacks.. With an exceptional total of 19.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (79th percentile), Deshaun Watson has been among the top rushing QBs in the NFL this year.. With a fantastic total of 3.00 yards-after-contact (95th percentile), Deshaun Watson stands as one of the leading running quarterbacks in football this year.

-115 at bet365

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NO @

NYG Sun, Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET

Receptions Made

Chris Olave u6.5 Receptions Made (-115)

Projection 5.64 (Under)

Best Odds

u6.5 -114

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u6.5 -114

u6.5 -115

The New York Giants safeties profile as the 7th-best collection of safeties in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

-114 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Jameis Winston u224.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Projection 210.04 (Under)

Best Odds

u224.5 -112

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u224.5 -112

u222.5 -114

u223.5 -115

The model projects the Giants as the 5th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. At a whopping 29.30 seconds per play, the New York Giants offense comes in as the 8th-slowest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year.. The model projects Jameis Winston to attempt 32.5 passes this week, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing QBs have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.. Jameis Winston comes in as one of the least accurate quarterbacks in football this year with a 58.5% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 13th percentile.

-112 at DraftKings

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CHI @

ATL Sun, Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET

Anytime Touchdown

Luther Burden III Score a Touchdown (Yes: +185)

Projection 0.47 (Yes)

Best Odds

+200

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

+185

+200

+175

+190

+185

+181

+185

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 134.7 offensive plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week.. The highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Chicago Bears this year (a whopping 67.2 per game on average).. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.. Opposing teams have averaged 45.8 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: most in football.. The opposing side have run for the 5th-fewest TDs in the NFL (0.60 per game) vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

+200 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Drake London o80.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 90.27 (Over)

Best Odds

o80.5 -115

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o80.5 -115

o90.5 -112

o89.5 -114

o88.5 -114

o89.5 -115

A passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this game.. The predictive model expects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.7 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The model projects Drake London to notch 10.9 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.. Drake London's 86.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year illustrates a meaningful progression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 66.0 rate.

-115 at bet365

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NYJ @

NE Sun, Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET

Total

u43.5 (-110)

Best Odds

u43.5 -105

Pick made: 16 hours ago

u43.5 -110

u43.5 -108

u43.5 -105

u43.5 -110

u43.5 -108

u43.5 -110

For as good as the Jets' defense has been, the Patriots have been pretty damn solid themselves. New England ranks sixth in total defense, 14th in defensive EPA/play, and is taking on a subpar Jets offense ranked 26th in total yards. I'm fine with fading Geno Smith and a streaky Drake Maye, who are a total 7-3 to the Under this year. No matter how you slice it, this is going to be a tough defensive battle on a cold Sunday afternoon. The numbers are screaming at the top of the rooftops to take this Under, you should listen.

Spread

NYJ +7.5 (-121)

Best Odds

+7.5 -115

Pick made: 16 hours ago

+7.5 -130

+7.5 -117

+7.5 -115

+7.5 -120

+7.0 -108

+7.0 -105

+7.5 -120

The New York Jets' defense is severely underrated this season. The unit is giving up just 19.2 points per game, which ranks fifth in the NFL, and is sixth in defensive EPA/play. New York's defense is one of the best bend-don't-break side in the game, too, allowing opponents to score at just a 50% clip - good for sixth best in football. As you can tell, I have a lot of faith in this unit. It'll be a pure heat check game for Drake Maye, who's thrown for seven touchdowns and over 600 yards across his last two weeks after a horrendous start to his season. I'm expecting a tight divisional tilt here - it's one of my best trades for Week 6.

View 8 Picks

ARI @

LA Sun, Oct 18 • 4:05 PM ET

Receiving Yards

Tyler Higbee o29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 38.36 (Over)

Best Odds

o29.5 -110

Pick made: 32 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o30.5 -115

o29.5 -112

o30.5 -114

o32.5 -117

o30.5 -112

o29.5 -110

o30.5 -110

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-focused team in football (63.8% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Los Angeles Rams.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 131.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.. The Rams have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 64.6 plays per game.. The weather report calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Tyler Higbee has notched many more adjusted receiving yards per game (59.0) this year than he did last year (31.0).

-110 at theScore Bet

Passing Yards

Jacoby Brissett o243.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Projection 252.13 (Over)

Best Odds

o242.5 -113

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o245.5 -115

o242.5 -113

o244.5 -114

o243.5 -115

o244.5 -120

o244.5 -115

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Cardinals being a giant -13.5-point underdog this week.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cardinals to pass on 66.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Arizona Cardinals have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 62.4 plays per game.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.

-113 at DraftKings

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LAC @

KC Sun, Oct 18 • 4:25 PM ET

Spread

KC -7.5 (-110)

Best Odds

-8.5 -103

Pick made: 2 days ago

-8.5 -108

-8.5 -103

-8.5 -105

-7.5 -115

0.0 -559

-8.5 -105

-8.0 -110

-7.5 -115

Kansas City’s offense is rolling in Episode 2 of the Eric Bieniemy Experience, with the team rating in the Top 10 of all the sexy advanced metrics and placing fourth in points per play. The Chiefs face a Bolts team that can’t seem to string together two positive plays before either turning the ball over or getting flagged for a penalty. The Chargers have the ninth lowest success rate on third down and picked up just 14 first downs in a loss to Denver Sunday. This will be L.A.’s third road game in the past four weeks and a much-needed bye in Week 7 could serve as look-ahead bait for the Bolts.

Rushing Yards

Patrick Mahomes o11.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 18.84 (Over)

Best Odds

o11.5 -115

Pick made: 12 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o11.5 -115

With a 8.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are a huge favorite in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the predictive model to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.

-115 at bet365

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BUF @

LV Sun, Oct 18 • 4:25 PM ET

Anytime Touchdown

Ashton Jeanty Score a Touchdown (Yes: -120)

Projection 0.79 (Yes)

Best Odds

-115

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

-125

-130

-120

-125

-130

-115

-127

-120

-130

The Raiders are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 62.6% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The Raiders have been the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 60.7% red zone pass rate.. With regard to a defense's impact on tempo, the Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed opposing teams to play 10th-fastest in the league (context-neutralized) this year at 27.93 seconds per snap.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

-115 at BetRivers

Receiving Yards

James Cook III o7.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 12.5 (Over)

Best Odds

o7.5 -114

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o10.5 -115

o8.5 -109

o7.5 -114

o8.5 -113

o8.5 -115

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.. James Cook's ability to generate extra yardage has gotten a boost this season, compiling 4.57 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 0.00 mark last season.. The Raiders pass defense has conceded the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.5%) to running backs since the start of last season (85.5%).. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Las Vegas's collection of LBs has been awful this year, ranking as the 6th-worst in the league.

-114 at FanDuel

View 10 Picks

DAL @

GB Sun, Oct 18 • 8:20 PM ET

Total

o50.5 (-110)

Best Odds

o52.5 -110

Pick made: 2 days ago

o52.5 -110

o52.5 -113

o52.5 -115

o52.5 -112

o53.0 -110

o52.5 -110

o53.5 -107

o52.5 -115

o53.0 -110

Jordan Love has thrown for 300+ yards in three of five games so far and faces a dreadful Dallas Cowboys defense on Sunday Night Football. He's has enjoyed past meetings with the Cowboys, amassing 337 yards and three touchdowns last season and connecting for three TDs and 272 yards in Green Bay’s infamous ass-waxing of Dallas in the 2023 Wild Card Round. The Cowboys are off an embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay at home last Thursday. Three turnovers sucked all the juice out of a big night for QB Dak Prescott, who threw for 316 yards in Week 5. Dallas’ defense is getting blown away by explosive downfield plays, ranking dead last in EPA allowed per dropback and opponent success rate per pass. The Cowboys are also giving up the fifth most points per play.

Rushing Yards

MarShawn Lloyd o40.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 53.51 (Over)

Best Odds

o40.5 -114

Pick made: 4 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o40.5 -115

o40.5 -114

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. This year, the anemic Dallas Cowboys run defense has given up a massive 173.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the worst in football.

-114 at FanDuel

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WAS @

SF Mon, Oct 19 • 8:15 PM ET

Passing Yards

Jayden Daniels o202.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Projection 221.63 (Over)

Best Odds

o201.5 -115

Pick made: 12 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o202.5 -112

o205.5 -114

o207.5 -114

o204.5 -114

o201.5 -115

o204.5 -115

The Commanders are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The Commanders have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year.

-115 at theScore Bet

Receiving Yards

Christian McCaffrey o39.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 42.79 (Over)

Best Odds

o38.5 -115

Pick made: 31 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o38.5 -115

o39.5 -114

o39.5 -120

o39.5 -114

o39.5 -105

o39.5 -115

Opposing QBs have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-most in football.. In this week's contest, Christian McCaffrey is projected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs with 6.7 targets.. The 49ers O-line profiles as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing offense stats across the board.. Christian McCaffrey's talent in grinding out extra yardage have gotten better this season, totaling 5.89 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 0.00 mark last season.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Washington's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in the league.

-115 at DraftKings

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For every matchup in an NFL season, our NFL computer produces selections for a variety of different betting angles. Our computer picks are based on a proprietary algorithm that values each team in the current week to produce moneyline, spread, and point total selections.

The table above, below the game picks, tracks our NFL computer's results over the last 100 games, outlining the record and profit for selections, based on $100 unit size. We track the profit based on both opening and closing lines for every matchup.

How to Use NFL Computer Picks

The easiest way to utilize our computer picks is to simply follow our selections for every matchup, what you'd call ailing the computer." But there are other ways to utilize our NFL computer picks, as well.

You can use our NFL computer as a jumping-off point to do more research into specific lines, cross-referencing with expert picks, which can be found above the selections for some matchups, recent NFL betting trends, and more.

As well, you can gauge the confidence of the matchup. The larger the projected score, the more confident the computer is in a specific pick.

Or, if you want to implement a system, betting only on underdogs, for example, you can look for matchups in which our computer likes the underdog to inform which picks you're going to hone in on for a given week.

We have these computer picks for every sport you're looking to wager on, as well:

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Moneyline

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For moneyline picks, the favorite is represented with a minus sign (-) in front of the odds, while the underdog has a plus (+). However, you don't get the same profit for picking an underdog compared to a favorite. If the favored team is -120, a $100 bet on them would pay out $80 in profit and $180 total, if they win the game. The underdog winning at +150 would pay out a $150 profit, $250 total.

We have a complete breakdown of how to read NFL moneyline odds for these NFL computer picks.

Spread

While moneyline picks are the simplest, picking NFL games against the spread is probably the most common wager for regular NFL bettors.

To bet an NFL spread, you wager on whether a team will win by a certain number of points or more or if they'll lose by fewer points than the spread. For example, if the spread is -6.5 for the New England Patriots, you would win the bet if they win the game by 7 points or more. Or if a team is +6.5, you're betting on if they'll win outright or lose by fewer than 6.5 points.

There is a correlation between moneyline odds and the spread, as books set these lines based on the same information.

You can read more about NFL spreads here.

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If you aren’t entirely sold on which NFL team will win or cover in an NFL game, you can still use our NFL computer picks to bet on the point total.

As opposed to taking a side, in total or Over/Under betting, you wager on whether both NFL teams will combine for a final score of more than (Over) or less than (Under) the total number of points set by oddsmakers.

The computer picks, and your handicapping of totals is more about how you think both teams will score points, not which team has the edge to win.

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