A high-wind football game is, in my estimation, not just the most impactful NFL weather event — it's the biggest weather factor across all sports.
High wind changes the game entirely. It takes away the deep ball, makes intermediate throws harder to place, and wreaks havoc on special teams.
In my OVERcast database of 2,720 outdoor NFL games since 2010, games played in 25+ mph wind saw about 15% less scoring, 19% fewer passing yards, and 14% fewer made field goals than calm games.
That kind of impact can be a dream for sports bettors targeting Unders on NFL odds, and an absolute nightmare for anyone hoping for a shootout.
- Sustained winds of 20 mph or higher have a big impact.
- High winds affect offense and special teams, not the defense.
- Wind forecasts are reliable days in advance — bet them early!
What counts as a high-wind game?
There’s no single magic number. The higher the wind, the greater the impact. But I tend to look at wind games in buckets, and the data backs them up:
| Sustained wind | What it means | Total points | Passing yards | Field goals made | Unders hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 10 mph | Not a weather game | 45.6 | 490 | 3.2 | 48% |
| 10-15 mph | Gentle breeze; don’t overthink it | 43.5 (-5%) |
474 (-3%) |
3.3 (+1%) |
56% |
| 16-25 mph | Impacts some longer throws and kicks | 42.5 (-7%) |
454 (-7%) |
3.0 (-7%) |
54% |
| 25+ mph | Major impact on passing and special teams | 38.7 (-15%) |
396 (-19%) |
2.8 (-14%) |
59% |
My typical threshold for “this matters” is 15 mph sustained or more. By the time you hit 20 mph or higher — it’s a significant impact.
Why wind has such a big impact on NFL games
Wind is one of the few weather factors that is only felt on one side of the ball. Rain or snow? The defense has to deal with bad footing just like the offense. Freezing cold? That’s not fun for anyone on the field.
High wind? It only impacts the passing game and special teams, and it’s a pure advantage for the defense.
Yes, high winds are impactful to an offense, but it’s special teams that feel it the most. Here’s the interesting part: field goal accuracy barely moves in the wind; kickers made about 85% of their attempts in calm games and about 81% in 25+ mph games.
What changes is how often they get the chance. Field goals made drop about 14% in 25+ mph wind because no coach is trotting out his kicker for a 50-yarder into a 25 mph wind. Field goal attempts, especially long ones, fall off a cliff in high-wind games.
What wind doesn’t do is make games sloppy. Interceptions and sacks don’t go up in windy games. That’s because, much like with kicking, teams are more likely to abandon or limit the passing game than force it when the weather won’t allow it.
Wind direction matters too. A wind blowing straight down the field means one team kicks with it and the other kicks into it, and they switch every quarter. A crosswind makes life hard on both kickers. It's important to know how the wind is blowing relative to the actual field (and not just a compass direction), which is incorporated into all MySportsWeather forecasts.
Why wind is the weather to bet early
Another thing that makes wind games interesting for making NFL picks, beyond the impact on the game itself, is how reliable the forecast usually is. A wind game can be spotted days out, and while the minor details may change, the forecast typically stays on track. That’s in part because wind affects a large area fairly uniformly. One side of the city usually sees similar winds to the other side (barring microclimates like lake influences or mountain winds).
That’s very, very different from rain. It can pour on one side of the city and be completely dry on the other. That’s why rain forecasts tend to be fickle and somewhat unreliable days out, while wind forecasts are steadier and typically deliver.
The betting history lines up with this. Once the wind gets to 10 mph or more, unders hit about 55% of the time, compared with 48% in calm games. This is not some unknown secret. The sportsbooks — and sharp bettors — are well aware of the impact wind has on scoring, so totals in high-wind games drop quickly.
That brings me to my basic sports-weather mantra: Bet wind games early, before the total collapses. Hold off on rain games until you’re absolutely sure it’s going to rain.
You can track the wind for every NFL game, hour-by-hour and relative to the field, at MySportsWeather.com/nfl.
Data: OVERcast NFL database (2,720 outdoor NFL games from 2010 to 2025). Wind is from the nearest airport weather station at kickoff. Under results are against the closing total.
