Best NFL Picks Today

The Patriots enter Week 10 allowing the second most “explosive” passes of 20+ yards and are also missing defenders in the secondary, with DB Carlton Davis III out and DB Charles Woods and safety Kevin Byard questionable.
For his career, St. Brown is one of the most dangerous WRs versus man coverage and will face plenty of it from a Patriots secondary running man schemes at the second highest rate. St. Brown’s projections for Week 10 sit between 78 and 96 receiving yards, with my forecast coming out to 84 yards in Germany.

This yardage prop is in play up to 52% because a breakout game is coming for Rice. He’s recorded a respectable 102 receiving yards over the past two weeks despite an unsustainably low 1.3 aDOT. Rice paced the NFL in yards after the catch per reception with an 8.1 mark last season, and his 8.2 YAC/REC this year is right in line for the game-breaking playmaker. Plus, with the Falcons allowing nine wideouts to top 60 receiving yards through nine games, the matchup checks out for Rice, too.

Playable up to 30%. Neither Moore nor Khalil Shakir offers the same red zone threat as Coleman, who's hauled in three touchdown catches this year. He's earned Allen's trust, with 15 targets in his last three games, and his 6'3 frame is conducive to jump balls and fades.

This is available at 8.46x despite the trades that sent Keenan Allen to San Francisco and Josh Downs to Kansas City. That opens the door for Ashton Dulin to take on a larger role after scoring a TD last week. He's listed as a starting WR on the current depth chart and should see an increase in snaps. Head coach Shane Steichen also mentioned that Dulin and the other receivers will absorb those routes, with plenty of opportunities to go around. The Colts could be playing with great field position all game, with Kyle McCord starting under center for the Dolphins and unlikely to move the ball consistently. Any starting outside WR against Miami shouldn't be priced longer than 6x. This is great value created by the trades. At least we know Dulin cares about football in Indianapolis.

Williams has stepped into the WR3 role, giving Love a big target in the slot. He’s caught 11 of 13 targets for game outputs of five, 25, 32, and 47 yards. The Vikes have been exposed by slot options, most recently allowing Buffalo’s Khalil Shakir to pick up 58 yards on four receptions. Williams’ Week 10 projections vary, sitting between 15 and 24.5 yards. My projection comes out to 20 yards receiving but I see a higher ceiling, considering the matchup. 

Olave is the Saints leader in targets, catches and has twice as many yards or receptions for first-downs than any other New Orleans pass catcher. He scores about every other time he plays the Panthers 

This prop is in play up to 54% because the Titans have leaned on Pollard all season, and he’s handled 16 or more carries in five of the past six games with an average of 18.7 rushes per game. Additionally, I’m confident Tennessee will remain committed to the run because the Titans are 24th in pass rate over expected, and attacking on the ground will help protect QB Cam Ward from a Jacksonville pass rush ranked fifth in quarterback-knockdown percentage.

Nico Collins is an absolute nightmare to deal with, and Cleveland's middling secondary is going to have its issues. Collins has four touchdowns in six games this season, and with Stroud coming off a five-touchdown clinic, that connection is looking as dangerous as ever. Give Collins an inch in the red zone, and he'll make you pay. Despite missing time, Collins is still 10th in the NFL with 10 red-zone targets, let's see some volume inside the 20 here.

I recommend this total up to 65+ yards. Las Vegas has been gashed on the ground over the past six weeks for a league-high 5.74 yards per carry and EPA per rush, and Charbonnet proved he was all the way back last week with a high-end 3.75 yards after contact per attempt and 110 PFF elusive rating. He finished the game with 66 rushing yards on 16 totes.

Blake Corum has enjoyed the Rams’ three-game winning streak. He’s seen a spike in carries and has struck for a touchdown in each of those outings. Corum does the bulk of his damage in the second half, providing relief for RB1 Kyren Williams, with four of his five total TDs this season coming in the closing 30 minutes. His lone first-half strike was a 15-yard touchdown reception in the upset loss to Arizona in Week 6.

This touchdown prop is in play up to 50%. The Cowboys have surrendered the fourth-highest catch rate to opposing tight ends, and Kittle has been a force this season with a high-end 12.7 yards per reception, 8.5 aDOT and five touchdowns. He's also garnered 30% of the red-zone targets for the 49ers, including at least one red-zone look in seven of eight games.

On the season, Pittsburgh has allowed the 15th most receiving yards to rival TEs despite giving up the fifth fewest targets. FTN rates the Steelers DVOA vs tight ends at 24th among all teams. Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki caught all three balls his way for 37 yards in the Week 3 matchup with the Steelers. Projections for Sunday night are very bullish for Gesicki, with all models north of 25 yards and a ceiling flirting with 40 yards. My number comes out to 33+ yards in Week 10.

Derrick Henry projects for 94 rushing yards on more than 20 carries Monday night, and I expect his total to climb heading into kickoff. I'd confidently play him to reach 80+ yards at up to 55%. Jacoby Brissett has admitted he's on a "crash course" with the offense, which should lead to a simplified playbook and heavier reliance on the run. Baltimore also faces a Chargers offense that's last in scoring, struggling in the red zone and allowing the second-most sacks per game. With LA's offensive line potentially making changes and the Chargers ranking 26th in rush defense by EPA per carry since Week 5, this sets up nicely for a heavy Henry workload.