We’re coming off a 2-1 week, and my Week 8 NFL trends target Detroit’s disappearing act after wins, Tampa Bay’s home-field horror show, and New England’s knack for bouncing back.
Let’s dig into the NFL trends and attack three more spots.
Best NFL trends for Week 8
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| Trend | Pick |
|---|---|
 MIN vs.  DET• DET is 0-8 ATS after a win. |
|
 ATL vs.  TB• TB is 0-9 ATS at home. |
|
 NE vs.  MIA• NE is 5-0 ATS after a loss. |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Vikings vs. Lions trends
Trend: Lions are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following an outright win
- Why it matters for Week 8:
Detroit hasn’t been rewarding bettors after wins, and Minnesota’s defense makes another letdown easy to picture.
Week 8 pick: Vikings +3.5
Consistency has been a major issue for the Lions. Based on what we’ve seen this season, why should we trust them to create separation against Minnesota?
Detroit has won just once in its last eight games following a victory, and that lone win came by three points. The Lions are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. Beating the NFL’s stingiest scoring defense is one thing. Beating it by enough to cover is another.
Minnesota swept Detroit outright last season as an underdog both times and has won 11 straight games dating back to last year. Its defense is allowing an NFL-low 12.3 points per game. Good luck pulling away from that.
With so many people buying the “Vikings are frauds” narrative, I’ll gladly take the contrarian side. The Lions have lost some of their luster, and I’m taking Minnesota to make this one close.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers trends
Trend: Buccaneers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games at home
- Why it matters for Week 8:
One blowout win doesn’t erase Tampa Bay’s long-running habit of lighting bettors’ money on fire.
Week 8 pick: Falcons +2.5
I think the Buccaneers are being overvalued after last week’s big win. Before that victory, they were 0-3 in Baker Mayfield’s starts this season. His 83.0 passer rating ranks 24th entering Week 8. One good Sunday doesn’t make those problems disappear.
Michael Penix Jr. has been the better quarterback, posting a Top 10 passer rating with nine touchdown passes against one interception. That’s a pretty compelling reason to grab the points with Atlanta.
Then there’s Tampa Bay’s betting résumé: nine straight ATS losses at home, eight straight ATS losses as a favorite, and a miserable 2-14 ATS record over its last 16 games.
That’s a lot of evidence to ignore because Tampa Bay finally put together a game worth getting excited about. I’m not buying a turnaround. That win vs. the Panthers could look like a massive outlier when the season’s over.
Patriots vs. Dolphins trends
Trend: Patriots are 5-0 SU and ATS after a loss under Mike Vrabel
- Why it matters for Week 8:
New England has answered every in-season loss under Vrabel with a win and a cover, and Miami offers another inviting bounce-back spot.
Week 8 pick: Patriots -6.5
What a beautiful setup for the Patriots at -6.5: extra rest, coming off a loss, and facing a Dolphins team feeling good about finally winning a game.
Across those five bounce-back wins, New England averaged 30.4 points and won by an average of 11.8. In the two games where the Patriots were favored, they won by 29 and 17. Vrabel apparently doesn’t deliver his post-loss speeches with an indoor voice.
They’re also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as favorites, including playoffs.
With Green Bay and Detroit on deck, New England can’t afford to get cute here. Miami has already lost four games by a touchdown or more. Give me the Patriots at -6.5 before this number gets less friendly.
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Other notable NFL trends for Week 8
Trend rating: 🟢 = good, 🔴 = avoid
- 🟢 Kansas City is 15-3 to the Under in its last 18 games
Back Under 40.5 vs. DEN - 🟢 Dallas is 10-2-1 to the Over in its last 13 games
Back Over 54.5 vs. ARI - 🔴 Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after a SU loss
Avoid IND +9.5 vs. JAX - 🔴 The Rams are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games
Avoid LAC +6.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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