After an 8-6 showing for +1.08 units, I'm looking to build on my record with my NFL moneyline picks for Week 8.
With Patrick Mahomes looking to rebound in the Mile High City and Detroit aiming to hand Minnesota its first loss of the season, there's plenty of value in my latest NFL picks.
My NFL moneyline record is 63-44 this season for 0.60 units.
NFL moneyline picks for Week 8
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Panthers vs  Packers |
65% |
 Ravens vs  Bills |
63% |
 Titans vs  Bengals |
84% |
 Browns vs  Steelers |
65% |
 Colts vs  Jaguars |
81% |
 Cardinals vs  Cowboys |
74% |
 Vikings vs  Lions |
62% |
 Raiders vs  Jets |
54% |
 Falcons vs  Buccaneers |
45% |
 Chargers vs  Rams |
74% |
 Chiefs vs  Broncos |
53% |
 Patriots vs  Dolphins |
76% |
 Eagles vs  Commanders |
69% |
 Bears vs  Seahawks |
38% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 8 NFL moneyline picks
Panthers vs. Packers: Packers
Green Bay has a knack for playing with its food and making games far more interesting than they should be, so Carolina's 13-0 ATS mark coming off a loss certainly caught my attention in Joe Osborne's Panthers vs. Packers predictions.
That said, Jordan Love looks unstoppable right now, and the Panthers are fresh off getting waxed at home by Tampa Bay. A prime-time showdown at Lambeau Field will be no easy task for a young Carolina core.
Ravens vs. Bills: Bills
On second thought, maybe John Harbaugh wasn't the problem after all.
The Ravens have run into the all-too-familiar problem of being unable to close out games, and now they'll face a 5-1 Bills team fresh off a bye.
With Lamar Jackson still sidelined, this potential playoff preview won't be nearly as close as advertised.
Titans vs. Bengals: Bengals
Joe Burrow remains in MVP form, boasting a 110.4 passer rating and a 15:3 TD-to-INT ratio, and now he gets to feast on a Tennessee defense that sits 24th in EPA per play.
The Titans rank dead last in total offense and 31st in scoring (15.4 ppg), a recipe for disaster against a Bengals stop unit that leads the NFL with 21 sacks.
Browns vs. Steelers: Steelers
Both offenses rank near the bottom of the league in EPA per play, but I'm siding with a Steelers team riding a three-game winning streak.
Cleveland has squeaked out its last two wins by a combined six points and ranks 28th in scoring at just 19.0 points per game. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is coming off back-to-back road victories and boasts the NFL's second-best rushing attack in EPA per play, along with a Top-10 defense in that same metric.
It won't be pretty, but the Steelers prevail 21-17.
Colts vs. Jaguars: Jaguars
With Indy dealing All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, the rebuild is officially underway for the Horseshoe.
Jacksonville is now catching more than a touchdown at home, and the Colts haven't won in Duval County since 2014. Get ready for an ugly rout.
Cardinals vs. Cowboys: Cowboys
Despite a short week, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' offense are finally finding their rhythm, and a matchup against a Cardinals defense allowing a league-worst 29.7 points per game will keep America's Team rolling.
Arizona isn't offering much resistance offensively, either, ranking 29th in yards per play. Dallas takes care of business at Jerry World.
Vikings vs. Lions: Lions
Minnesota swept last season's series, but Detroit had won four straight meetings before that. Jared Goff is no longer a liability against the blitz, and the Lions' offense continues to hum.
With the Vikings coming off a narrow escape against the dismal Colts, I'm backing Detroit to hand Minny its first loss of the season.
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Raiders vs. Jets: Jets
Las Vegas is reeling after suffering its second double-digit loss in three weeks, and now Kirk Cousins faces a Jets defense that ranks Top-5 in passing yards allowed (187.7 per game).
It's only a matter of time before Fernando Mendoza gets the call, and a loss in the Meadowlands might be the final straw.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers: Falcons
Tampa Bay leaned heavily on Bucky Irving and the ground game to get past Carolina, but that same approach won't work against a Falcons defense allowing just 3.8 yards per carry.
Atlanta prevails in a huge NFC South showdown.
Chargers vs. Rams: Rams
The Chargers rank dead last in offensive EPA per play (how is Mike McDaniel still employed?!), while Matthew Stafford and the Rams finally looked like themselves last week in Sin City.
This is another cupcake matchup for the Rams to build some confidence and get back to .500.
Chiefs vs. Broncos: Chiefs
The Chiefs embarrassed Denver's vaunted defense in a 31-10 Week 1 rout, piling up 392 total yards, including 220 on the ground.
With Nix averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt this season, I'm backing Mahomes to bounce back from last week's dud in Seattle and complete the season sweep.
Patriots vs. Dolphins: Patriots
New England has had an extra three days to prepare for this matchup in South Florida, and Drake Maye ranks fifth in EPA per dropback, now set to face a Dolphins defense sitting dead last in that same metric.
Pats bounce back with a road win in Miami.
Eagles vs. Commanders: Commanders
Easily the worst SNF matchup we've had thus far, but at least we can take solace in a healthy Jayden Daniels.
With Tanner McKee remaining under center for Philly and DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley both questionable, the Commanders have the upper hand, especially against an Eagles defense that's getting carved up (Vic Fangio might be cooked).
Bears vs. Seahawks: Bears
While the addition of Quenton Nelson certainly helps Seattle's offensive line, Jason Logan's Bears vs. Seahawks early leans make a compelling case for Ben Johnson and Chicago:
"Johnson had success against Mike Macdonald's defense in 2024 with Detroit, averaging 7.8 yards per play and going a perfect 5-for-5 in the red zone in a win over the Seahawks. Granted, Seattle was missing multiple defensive starters for that showdown.
Key bodies on Chicago’s defense are also trending toward playing in Week 8. The Bears are a dangerous stop unit, creating chaos with a blitz-heavy pass rush. Chicago, which sits fourth in pressure rate, has generated 19 sacks and 10 takeaways."
J-Lo likes Chicago at +3.5, and I'm taking it a step further by backing the Bears on the moneyline at 50% on Kalshi.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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