The New England Patriots are sizable road favorites over the Miami Dolphins ahead of their 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, Nov. 1.
My favorite Patriots vs. Dolphins prediction and NFL picks point to New England quarterback Drake Maye leading the way to a convincing Pats win in Week 8.
TOP Pick
Patriots vs Dolphins prediction: Patriots -6.5
I recommend laying the points with the New England Patriots up to -8.
New England quarterback Drake Maye leads the NFL in adjusted EPA per play over the past four weeks, and the Pats are second in offensive DVOA, averaging 31 points per game during the surge.
Maye is also fifth in completion percentage over expected with a career-high 3.16 average time to throw for the year.
With the Miami Dolphins checking in 28th in offensive DVOA and 29th in defensive DVOA for the season, they're in for a tough test Sunday.
New England also benefits from added rest and preparation time after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 7.
COVERS INTEL: The Miami Dolphins have surrendered the second-most points per drive and second-highest third-down conversion rate in the NFL.
Patriots vs Dolphins combo
The Dolphins have allowed an average of 24.3 completions with a 73.7% completion percentage across their past three games, and Miami has allowed 29 receptions and a league-high 93.5% catch rate to tight ends during the stretch.
This is a soft matchup for Maye and go-to tight end Hunter Henry, and Henry has recorded 40+ receiving yards in four straight games while catching 19 of 21 targets for an average of 56.3 yards per game.
Patriots vs Dolphins combo
- Patriots -6.5
- Drake Maye Over 20.5 completions
- Hunter Henry Over 39.5 receiving yards
Patriots vs Dolphins touchdown scorer: Rhamondre Stevenson
This touchdown prop is playable up to 58%.
Pats veteran Rhamondre Stevenson is the clear No. 1 running back and has handled 39.1% of red-zone rushes, including seven carries inside the 20-yard line over the past three weeks.
Stevenson has also found pay dirt in three of the past four games, and Miami has surrendered eight touchdowns to opposing running backs through six games while allowing the fifth-highest rushing success rate.
- Top picks: 42-34, +6.96 units
- Combos: 0-15, -15 units
Patriots vs Dolphins odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Patriots -6.5 | Dolphins +6.5
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (52%) | Under 42.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Patriots 77% | Dolphins 24%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Patriots vs Dolphins weather
The weather forecast calls for a high of 84°F with a 40% chance of rain and high humidity, which could bring passing thunderstorms during the afternoon. Winds are also forecast to be blowing out of the east at 12 to 14 mph with potential gusts up to 20 to 24 mph.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Patriots vs Dolphins trend to know
The New England Patriots have won six of their last 10 away games (+4.30 Units / 20% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Dolphins.
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How to watch Patriots vs Dolphins
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Patriots vs Dolphins latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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