It's offense vs. defense Monday night as the Seattle Seahawks host the Chicago Bears as a 3.5-point home favorite at Lumen Field, with a game total of 46.5 for the home side.
Can the Bears rush the ball against a defense that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 36 games or allowed a quarterback to throw for more than 190 yards all season?
These are my best Bears vs. Seahawks predictions and NFL picks for Monday Night Football.
Bears vs Seahawks prediction: Under 46.5
This is tied for the Seattle Seahawks' highest total of the season at 46.5, and I'm looking at the Under with Seattle's defense controlling the game.
The Seahawks just held Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid to three points and zero red-zone trips, the first time that has happened in Mahomes' career. Seattle dictates the pace, and Chicago could struggle both on the ground and through the air.
The Bears lead the league with 154 rushing yards per game, but Seattle hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 36 straight games.
With Kyle Monangai likely out, D'Andre Swift faces a defense that allows just 3.5 yards per carry (second-best), and Roschon Johnson may have to shoulder more of the workload.
No quarterback has thrown for more than 189 yards against Seattle, including Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye, Bo Nix, and Brock Purdy. A midweek injury concern for Colston Loveland doesn't help, either.
Sam Darnold and this Seattle running game, even if Zach Charbonnet returns, don't inspire much confidence in scoring. The best Under 46.5 price may come at kickoff, but I doubt this line reaches the key number of 47.
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Bears vs Seahawks combo
Jaxon Smith-Njigba can't be stopped, and Rashid Shaheed's injury could further boost his league-leading air-yard share. I love his TD price this week.
The Bears have a genius play-caller in Ben Johnson, but I can't shake what Seattle's defense did to Mahomes and Reid last week. The streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher or 200-yard passer is terrifying for any opposing offense.
D'Andre Swift should dominate the running back opportunities with Monangai likely out. A potential negative game script and difficulty running the ball could force Johnson to get Swift more involved through the air. If Loveland sits, expect Swift to record 4+ catches for the third straight game.
Bears vs Seahawks combo
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD
- Bears team total Under 21.5
- D'Andre Swift Over 3.5 receptions
TOP PICK
Bears vs Seahawks touchdown scorer: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been virtually unstoppable, commanding a 36% target share and a league-leading 51% share of the Seahawks' air yards. According to Sumer Sports, it's the best 27-game stretch by any receiver in the tracking era, and Seattle's offense revolves around getting him the ball.
The numbers tell the story. When JSN gets a touch, Seattle posts a +0.53 EPA, but that drops to -0.03 when he doesn't get the ball — the worst mark among offenses with a top-10 receiver. I'll take his touchdown probability up to 56% this week.
Chicago's fast-paced offense could create additional possessions and scoring opportunities on both sides. The Bears have also struggled to contain opposing wide receivers, ranking among just three teams allowing at least one touchdown and 150-plus receiving yards per game to the position this season.
COVERS INTEL: Jaxon Smith-Njigba has an 80% EPA share over his 27 games with the Seahawks, ranking 1st of 141 qualified receivers over their best 27-game stretch, per Sumer Sports.
- Top picks: 4-2, +1.78 units
- Combos: 0-6, -6 units
Bears vs Seahawks odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Bears +3.5 | Seahawks -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (50%) | Under 46.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Bears 40% | Seahawks 60%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Bears vs Seahawks weather
There's nothing to worry about in Seattle on Monday night. Temperatures will be around 50 degrees, with a 1% chance of rain and weak 2-mph winds.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Bears vs Seahawks trend to know
The Seattle Seahawks have only hit the 1H Team Total Over in 7 of their last 21 games (-8.63 Units / -36% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Seahawks.
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How to watch Bears vs Seahawks
| Location | Lumen Field, Seattle, Wash. |
| Date | Monday, Nov. 2, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Bears vs Seahawks latest injuries
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