The Detroit Lions are -3.5 home favorites over the Minnesota Vikings ahead of their 1 p.m. ET clash at Ford Field on Sunday, Nov. 1.
My favorite Vikings vs. Lions prediction and NFL picks recommend taking the points with Minnesota in this NFC North showdown.
TOP Pick
Vikings vs Lions prediction: Vikings +3.5
I recommend taking the points with the Minnesota Vikings above the key number of 3 up to 56%.
Minnesota has allowed the fewest points per game and lowest EPA per play while ranking second in defensive DVOA, so I don’t expect the Detroit Lions to win by margin.
It’s also an entirely different story for the Detroit defense, with the Lions allowing the highest EPA per play while ranking 25th in defensive DVOA.
Plus, the Vikings won outright as +9.5 and +7.5 underdogs in the two 2025 meetings between the NFC North rivals.
Finally, I value Minny allowing the fourth-lowest explosive play rate while also blitzing at the highest rate in the league because the Vikings aren’t allowing chunk plays when opposing quarterbacks are able to navigate the pressure.
COVERS INTEL: The Minnesota Vikings have allowed the third-lowest third-down conversion rate, while the Detroit Lions have surrendered the sixth-highest.
Vikings vs Lions combo
Minnesota QB Kyler Murray has a respectable 66.7 completion percentage and ranks sixth in completion percentage over expectation over the past five weeks. The Lions have also surrendered the second-most passing completions despite playing just six games, and Detroit has allowed the fifth-highest dropback success rate.
Detroit has been particularly vulnerable to tight ends and has allowed a league-high 602 receiving yards to the position, too.
So, with Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson ranked in the 96th percentile of EPA per target at the position, he’s set for success against his former team.
Vikings vs Lions combo
- Vikings moneyline
- Kyler Murray 20+ passing completions
- T.J. Hockenson 40+ receiving yards
Vikings vs Lions touchdown scorer: T.J. Hockenson
I recommend Hockenson finding the end zone up to 31% because he has garnered a solid 33.3% target share in the red zone and scored last week.
The Lions have also surrendered a league-high 10 touchdowns to opposing tight ends, including yielding a score to the position in five of six games.
- Top picks: 42-34, +6.96 units
- Combos: 0-15, -15 units
Vikings vs Lions odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Vikings +3.5 | Lions -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (51%) | Under 45.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Vikings 38% | Lions 63%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Vikings vs Lions weather
Ford Field is fully enclosed, so outdoor weather won't affect this NFC North matchup.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Vikings vs Lions trend to know
The Minnesota Vikings have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 road games (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Lions.
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How to watch Vikings vs Lions
| Location | Ford Field, Detroit |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Vikings vs Lions latest injuries
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