The Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) have gotten back on track over the last two weeks, and now hit the road and face the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1). ESPN and ABC have Monday Night Football coverage at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Despite being tied for the AFC South lead, the Jags are 3.5-point home dogs, while the total is set at 46.5.
My Chiefs vs. Jaguars predictions look to Patrick Mahomes to use his legs a bit more often in this spot.
Here are my NFL picks for Monday, October 6.
Chiefs vs Jaguars prediction
Chiefs vs Jaguars Best bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 rushing yards (-110)
After dismantling the Ravens last week, the Kansas City Chiefs are back to .500 and looking to reestablish themselves in the AFC mix. Patrick Mahomes has climbed to No. 3 in the MVP betting markets, and a big performance under the lights against a 3-1 Jacksonville Jaguars team could push him further up the board.
Mahomes has quietly been using his legs more this season, with 22 carries for 130 yards and two rushing touchdowns through four games. And with the way this matchup shapes up, we should see even more of it in Week 5.
Jacksonville’s run defense is legit — one of just nine teams allowing under 4.0 yards per carry and currently No. 1 in success rate. They’ve given up just one rushing TD all year (to Jake Browning), and mobile QBs have found room to run: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Brock Purdy all beat their opening rushing props against this defense.
Meanwhile, Kansas City's own run game has been a non-factor. Only the Chargers have a higher pass rate and pass rate over expected, and the Chiefs are so weak at RB that rookie Brashard Smith is starting to generate buzz. Isaih Pacheco and Kareem Hunt have just 10 combined red-zone carries; Mahomes has six on his own and already converted two for touchdowns.
THE BLITZ is projecting 29 rushing yards for Mahomes this week. His rushing total closed at 28.5 last week and 27.5 the game before. Against a tough run D and in what should be a neutral game script, Mahomes could once again lead this backfield—on the ground and on the scoreboard. There is a small chance that he could lead this game in rushing yards if Jacksonville splits carries between Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten.
Chiefs vs Jaguars MNF same-game parlay
Mahomes will continue the MVP push in prime time vs. a tough defense that can surprise some. If he is trailing at any point in this game, this looks great, but with the Chiefs' PROE No.2 in the league, even with the lead, this team is going to pass, which is better for scrambles. Let's not look for three different guys to do something; let's back one elite playmaker in a pivotal game of the season with a healthy offense. Quarterback rushing props are also some of the most exciting to cheer for.
Chiefs vs Jaguars SGP
- Patrick Mahomes anytime TD
- Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 rushing yards
- Chiefs moneyline
Our big-ticket SGP: Mahomes is where the heart is
Let's add the rookie running back for a TD. He saw his snaps double in Week 4, and the brass is talking about him around the water cooler this week. He could have some featured plays this week and might be growing in the passing game. Adding Trevor Lawrence for a pick here is a no-brainer vs. this KC defense, as the Jags QB has already thrown four passes to the other team through four games.
Chiefs vs Jaguars SGP (+4,000)
- Patrick Mahomes anytime TD
- Brashard Smith anytime TD
- Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 interceptions
Chiefs vs Jaguars game predictions
Chiefs vs Jaguars moneyline prediction
The Chiefs have ripped off eight straight H2H matchups vs. the Jaguars dating back to the 2010 season. The most notable being the 27-20 win in the 2022-23 Divisional Round, where the Chiefs won as an 8-point favorite, and Mahomes was injured but finished the game. He is 4-0 SU vs. the Jags, completing over 70% of his passes and posting a 109.2 passer rating. The Chiefs are back, and the ML is the side.
Chiefs vs Jaguars spread prediction
This spread was -3 on the lookahead, opened back up at -3, and hit -3.5 sometime Monday afternoon. It has been bouncing around in places, but getting the +3.5 right now is the shorter side. If the Jags get healthier on the O-line, that 3.5 could close at 3.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Over/Under prediction
I don't get the love for this Over. These are two great defenses facing off, and this total has moved from 44.5 (lookahead), to 46 (on the Sunday opener), and has hit as high as 46.5. Give me this Under at 46.5, please. The Chiefs just embarrassed the Ravens; T-Law is next.
Chiefs vs Jaguars odds
- Spread: Kansas City -3.5 | Jacksonville +3.5
- Moneyline: Kansas City -185 | Jacksonville +155
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Chiefs vs Jaguars betting trend to know
Patrick Mahomes is 39-10 SU as a road favorite. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Jaguars.
How to watch Chiefs vs Jaguars
| Location | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date | Monday, October 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN and ABC |
Learn how to live stream Chiefs vs. Jaguars for free.
Chiefs vs Jaguars latest injuries
Patrick Mahomes was included on the injury report with a groin injury this week, but practiced in full on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday and carried no game-status designation on the Chiefs’ final Week 5 injury report.
Given that clean bill, he is expected to start this evening on Monday Night Football. Multiple outlets add that he was cleared from the injury report and is ready for the Jaguars matchup.
Barring a last minute setback, fans should also expect to see Hollywood Brown in the lineup tonight. The veteran wide receiver has 209 receiving yards and one touchdown in four games this season.
Chiefs vs Jaguars weather
Expect a warm, muggy Jacksonville night for MNF. Skies trend mostly cloudy with spotty showers and even a nearby thunderstorm possible, and there’s enough moisture around that brief ponding can’t be ruled out. Temperatures hover in the mid-70s through the game and slip toward the low-70s late. Lightning isn’t guaranteed, but it’s on the table given the pattern.
On-field, humidity plus periodic showers mean a slick ball and turf: tougher ball security, riskier cuts for receivers/DBs, and a trickier kicking game. Offenses may lean more on the run and shorter, timing-based throws; explosive deep shots could be harder to hit cleanly.
If a thunderstorm drifts close, a delay could reset momentum and favor the deeper, better-conditioned roster after the restart.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
More Chiefs vs Jaguars predictions from Covers
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars props
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars same game parlay
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars anytime touchdown scorer picks
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars computer picks
- Patrick Mahomes props
- Free NFL picks and predictions
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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