The Santiago Bernabéu hosts a different kind of football on Sunday morning, as Real Madrid makes way for the American kind in a matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons.
We are focusing on Joe Burrow and the Bengals' high-powered passing attack as a key part of our Bengals vs. Falcons prop picks for the latest edition of the NFL International Series in Madrid, Spain.
For more NFL picks, check out Jason Logan's full Bengals vs. Falcons prediction ahead of kickoff at 9:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 8.
Best Bengals vs Falcons props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Bijan Robinson Over 19.5 rushing attempts |
50% |
 Tee Higgins longest reception Over 26.5 yds |
48% |
| Joe Burrow Over 9.5 rushing yards |
44% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Bijan Robinson Over 19.5 rushing attempts
The easiest way for the Atlanta Falcons to slow down the Cincinnati Bengals offense is to keep it watching from the sidelines. That means feeding Bijan Robinson the rock, and I'm trading up to 55% for him to get the ball 20+ times on the ground.
He's hit this number just once in the last five games, but two key factors make that trend worth ignoring.
First, the Bengals are allowing 4.8 yards per carry, the fourth-most in the NFL, but that mark has gone up to 5.1 ypc in the past three games. Second, Brian Robinson Jr. and his nearly 25% carry share have officially been ruled out of Sunday's game.
I expect Bijan to find success early and often, and he'll keep getting the ball.
Prop pick #2: Tee Higgins longest reception Over 26.5 yds
Tee Higgins is primed for a big day, and I'm trading him to haul in a 27+ yard catch up to 52%. Among all wide receivers and tight ends with at least 25 targets this season, Higgins ranks 13th in the NFL in average depth of target (14.4 yds).
Of his 60 targets, 39 have come at least 10 yards downfield, and Joe Burrow ranks second in the NFL in completed air yards per pass.
Only nine teams in the NFL run more man coverage than Atlanta's 22.3%, and the 6-foot-4 Higgins is a nightmare to cover alone downfield. Combine these factors, and Higgins is a strong value to snag a pass of at least 27 yards for the third straight contest.
Prop pick #3: Joe Burrow Over 9.5 rush yards
This is a terrific number, and I'm trading it up to 47%.
Joe Burrow has rushed for 10+ yards in four of his last five games and is facing a very dangerous Atlanta pass rush. But while the Falcons rank fifth in PFF's pass-rushing grade, they're not actually getting home as they rank just 19th in sack rate this season.
The Bengals rank in the Top 10 in sacks allowed. Burrow's athleticism and scrambling ability can help him produce one or two chunk runs per game, even if he doesn't use them often
Burrow has gone over his rushing total in five of his seven games this year and will do so again on Sunday.
- Prop picks: 3-3, -1.00 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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