The Covers Anytime TD Value Index keeps finding players with good prices and a nose for the end zone.
Last week's No. 1 pick in our index, D'Andre Swift, scored three touchdowns on the week.
Here are the best anytime TD scorer predictions for NFL Week 9. Need more? Check out our NFL picks, NFL AI predictions, NFL Week 9 ATS picks, Week 9 opening odds, and our expert anytime TD picks.
Best anytime TD scorer predictions this week
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds converter, or compare prices for every game on our NFL prediction market page.
| Player | Position |  Probability |
Index Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins (  vs.  ) |
RB | 26% | 81 |
| Trey McBride (  vs.  ) |
TE | 33% | 79 |
| Samaje Perine (  vs.  ) |
RB | 24% | 78 |
| Kaelon Black (  vs.  ) |
RB | 32% | 78 |
| Emanuel Wilson ( vs. ) |
RB | 6% | 77 |
| Ollie Gordon II (  vs.  ) |
RB | 44% | 77 |
| Sam LaPorta ( vs. ) |
TE | 33% | 76 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown* ( vs. ) |
WR | 50% | 76 |
| George Kittle ( vs. ) |
TE | 55% | 76 |
| Courtland Sutton ( vs. ) |
WR | 26% | 75 |
| Travis Kelce (  vs.  ) |
TE | 35% | 75 |
| Jameson Williams ( vs. ) |
WR | 37% | 75 |
| Kyren Williams (  vs.  ) |
RB | 58% | 75 |
| Jonathan Taylor (  vs.  ) |
RB | 54% | 74 |
| Tyler Shough (  vs.  ) |
QB | 22% | 73 |
| Emmett Johnson ( vs. ) |
RB | 21% | 73 |
| Ryan Flournoy ( vs. ) |
WR | 27% | 73 |
| Juwan Johnson ( vs. ) |
TE | 20% | 72 |
| Xavier Worthy ( vs. ) |
WR | 31% | 72 |
| CeeDee Lamb ( vs. ) |
WR | 53% | 72 |
| Javonte Williams ( vs. ) |
RB | 66% | 72 |
| AJ Barner ( vs. ) |
TE | 25% | 71 |
| Caleb Douglas ( vs. ) |
WR | 26% | 71 |
| Brenton Strange (  vs.  ) |
TE | 27% | 71 |
| Isaiah Likely (  vs.  ) |
TE | 31% | 71 |
Accurate as of Nov. 7. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
* currently listed as Questionable on the Week 9 Injury Report
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Best Week 9 anytime TD predictions
J.K. Dobbins | RB 26%
- The market illusion: "Jonah Coleman's emergence has eliminated Dobbins' touchdown role."
-
The structural reality: J.K. Dobbins still owns meaningful season-long scoring equity: 13 red-zone carries, including eight attempts inside the 5-yard line, where he has scored three times. Those eight carries represent 44% of Denver's opportunities from that range. Denver has also converted 68% of its red-zone possessions into touchdowns.
The concern is recent usage. Dobbins' short-term snap and carry shares have fallen to 22% and 30%, while Coleman has risen to 58% and 47%, respectively. Coleman also holds a seven-to-one advantage in recent red-zone opportunities.
At 26%, the market requires a touchdown once every 3.85 games. Carolina has allowed touchdowns on 80% of opponent red-zone trips, and Denver carries a 23.5-point implied total. The matchup is excellent, but the role change makes this far less secure than the index score suggests. I would want approximately 23% or lower unless Dobbins' goal-line involvement is confirmed.
Trey McBride | TE 33%
- The market illusion: "Arizona's low scoring projection neutralizes McBride's elite usage."
-
The structural reality: Trey McBride leads the NFL with 19 red-zone targets. He has caught 14, scored five touchdowns, and commanded 29% of Arizona's red-zone targets. His current 94% snap share and six recent red-zone opportunities preserve both volume and role certainty.
At 33%, the market requires one touchdown every 3.03 games. Arizona's 14.7-point implied total is a major negative, but Seattle has surrendered touchdowns on 88% of opponent red-zone possessions, the league's worst rate.
The matchup amplifies a genuinely concentrated scoring role rather than creating one artificially. McBride remains attractive through approximately 36%, although Arizona's limited projected drive volume restricts the ceiling.
Samaje Perine | RB 24%
- The market illusion: "A secondary back cannot offer touchdown value behind Chase Brown."
-
The structural reality: Samaje Perine has accumulated 13 red-zone opportunities: 12 carries and one target. He has scored twice while handling 35% of Cincinnati's red-zone rushing attempts. This is a complementary role, but it is materially stronger than his ordinary between-the-20s workload suggests.
His recent profile remains specialized: a 29% snap share, 22% carry share, and five red-zone opportunities. Cincinnati is projected for 27.7 points and has converted 68% of its red-zone possessions into touchdowns, creating multiple potential scoring drives. Atlanta's 63% defensive red-zone touchdown rate is roughly neutral.
Perine does not need lead-back volume to reach the endzone provided Brown remains healthy and Perine retains his situational goal-line work.
Ollie Gordon II | RB 44%
- The market illusion: "Miami's inconsistent offense cannot justify a near-coin-flip price."
-
The structural reality: Ollie Gordon II has received 23 red-zone carries, accounting for 55% of Miami's backfield attempts there. Ten have come from inside the 5-yard line, where he owns a 71% carry share and has scored three times. His four red-zone touchdowns represent 40% of Miami's total.
The role is strengthening rather than merely surviving: his recent snap and carry shares have climbed to 82% and 78%, accompanied by eight red-zone opportunities. Detroit has allowed touchdowns on 74% of opponent red-zone possessions, although Miami's implied total is only 21.8 points.
At 44%, the required frequency is once every 2.27 games. That price is supported by a concentrated close-range role and a favorable matchup. Gordon remains playable through approximately 48%.
Amon-Ra St. Brown* | WR 50%
- The market illusion: "Detroit's numerous weapons make half-dollar pricing too aggressive."
-
The structural reality: Amon-Ra St. Brown has drawn 16 red-zone targets, catching 11 and scoring four times. He owns 33% of Detroit's red-zone targets and 20% of its touchdowns. His recent 34% overall target share confirms that the passing game remains concentrated around him despite strong supporting personnel.
At 50%, the market requires a touchdown every two games. Detroit has a slate-high 28.7-point implied total among these selections and converts 69% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns. Miami permits touchdowns on 64% of opposing red-zone possessions.
The only restraint is Detroit's ability to score through its running backs and other receivers. St. Brown is attractive at 50%, with approximately 53% representing the upper edge of the value range.
* currently listed as Questionable on the Week 9 Injury Report
Travis Kelce | TE 35%
- The market illusion: "Age and added competition have erased Kelce's scoring relevance."
-
The structural reality: Travis Kelce continues to play 81% of Kansas City's offensive snaps, while his recent target share has risen from 17% to 22%. That route-level involvement keeps him attached to Patrick Mahomes' highest-value passing possessions. However, he recorded no red-zone opportunities in the recent usage window, preventing this from being treated as an unquestioned elite touchdown role.
At 35%, the market requires a score once every 2.86 games. Kansas City is projected for 28.5 points, while the Jets have allowed touchdowns on 64% of opponent red-zone trips. The Chiefs reach the red zone frequently, although their 58% conversion rate has been closer to average than dominant.
Kelce's quarterback connection and stable playing time support the listed price, but the recent red-zone drought limits the edge. I would cap the attractive range near 37%.
Jonathan Taylor | RB 54%
- The market illusion: "Indianapolis lacks the scoring environment for an odds-on running back."
-
The structural reality: Jonathan Taylor has accumulated 30 red-zone opportunities, including 28 carries. He controls 70% of Indianapolis' red-zone rushing attempts and has received 15 carries inside the 5-yard line, an 83% team share. Six of his red-zone opportunities have produced touchdowns.
Recent usage has cooled, with his snap share falling to 65% and his carry share to 47%, so the season-long dominance should not be projected blindly. Nevertheless, Dallas has conceded touchdowns on 70% of opponent red-zone trips, giving Taylor a favorable path whenever Indianapolis reaches scoring range.
At 54%, the market requires a touchdown once every 1.85 games. Indianapolis' 23-point implied total is adequate rather than exceptional. His uniquely concentrated goal-line role supports the price, but recent workload movement keeps my ceiling near 56%.
CeeDee Lamb | WR 53%
- The market illusion: "Dallas' receiving depth has diluted Lamb's touchdown ceiling."
-
The structural reality: CeeDee Lamb has drawn 16 red-zone targets, catching eight and scoring five times. He owns 34% of Dallas' red-zone targets, while his 10 end-zone targets lead all wide receivers. His recent usage is even stronger: a 43% target share and six red-zone opportunities.
At 53%, the market requires a touchdown once every 1.89 games. Dallas carries a 28.5-point implied total, has averaged 4.2 red-zone trips per game, and has converted 68% into touchdowns. Indianapolis has allowed touchdowns on 62% of opponent red-zone possessions.
Lamb's opportunity profile justifies an expensive price, but it leaves less margin than the cheaper selections. He remains a modest value through approximately 55%, rather than a major market mispricing.
Week 9 anytime touchdown props to avoid
Every week, the Covers Anytime Touchdown Value Index flags the five worst anytime touchdown propositions on the board. We aren't talking about the longest odds or the lowest raw probabilities.
We are talking about negative ROI. These are the spots where the public narrative has inflated the price so severely that the trade is mathematically unprofitable.
Consider these fades before you trade on Kalshi.
| Player | Position | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins ( vs. ) |
QB | 6% | 39 | Pocket-bound profile requires a broken play or rare sneak. |
| Jerry Jeudy ( vs. ) |
WR | 14% | 39 | Perimeter routes rarely funnel targets near the goal line. |
| Ty Johnson (  vs.  ) |
RB | 8% | 37 | Passing-down role offers space scores, not dependable goal-line work. |
| Tim Patrick ( vs. ) |
WR | 6% | 34 | Low-volume boundary role needs a perfectly scripted red-zone target. |
| Isaiah Williams ( vs. ) |
WR | 7% | 33 | Special-teams utility leaves offensive scoring opportunities highly sporadic. |
NFL Week 9 best anytime touchdown props by position
If you are strictly a running back investor, or you only trade tight end markets, we have you covered.
The Index breaks down the board by position, highlighting the 10 clearest value plays across each skill group so you aren't blindly navigating a crowded market. Prefer a first-scorer angle? See our NFL first touchdown scorer picks for Week 9.
Top 10 quarterback TD props for Week 9
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough ( vs. ) |
22% | 73 | Designed keepers preserve goal-line upside against Cleveland's interior. |
| Brock Purdy ( vs. ) |
23% | 69 | Bootlegs complement San Francisco's dominant condensed-field scheme. |
| Malik Willis ( vs. ) |
26% | 69 | Designed rushing usage creates multiple short-yardage scoring paths. |
| Dak Prescott ( vs. ) |
15% | 66 | Read-option keepers remain viable when coverage vacates edges. |
| Joe Burrow ( vs. ) |
15% | 65 | Scramble touchdowns depend on Atlanta sustaining tight man coverage. |
| Bo Nix ( vs. ) |
18% | 65 | Designed keepers exploit Carolina's vulnerable goal-line run fits. |
| Patrick Mahomes ( vs. ) |
16% | 64 | Extended plays create rushing lanes against man coverage. |
| Trevor Lawrence ( vs. ) |
19% | 62 | Sneaks and zone-read keepers diversify Jacksonville's scoring menu. |
| Matthew Stafford ( vs. ) |
4% | 59 | Pocket-bound profile makes rushing scores game-script dependent. |
| J.J. McCarthy ( vs. ) |
20% | 58 | Athleticism creates scramble equity against aggressive Philadelphia pressure. |
Top 10 running back TD props for Week 9
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins ( vs. ) |
26% | 81 | Primary short-yardage option benefits from Carolina's leaky interior. |
| Samaje Perine ( vs. ) |
12% | 78 | Passing-down usage plus trusted goal-line work creates hidden equity. |
| Kaelon Black ( vs. ) |
26% | 78 | Power role complements explosive offense near the goal line. |
| Emanuel Wilson ( vs. ) |
6% | 77 | Goal-line involvement appeals, but backfield hierarchy remains volatile. |
| Ollie Gordon II ( vs. ) |
44% | 77 | Miami funnels finishing work through his downhill rushing profile. |
| Kyren Williams ( vs. ) |
58% | 75 | Three-down control makes him Los Angeles' preferred drive finisher. |
| Jonathan Taylor ( vs. ) |
54% | 74 | Dominant short-yardage ownership keeps touchdown floor unusually stable. |
| Emmett Johnson ( vs. ) |
21% | 73 | Complementary role gains value when Kansas City controls possession. |
| Javonte Williams ( vs. ) |
66% | 72 | Dallas consistently trusts his power after reaching scoring range. |
| Jadarian Price ( vs. ) |
37% | 71 | Rotational workload carries upside, but Seattle's backfield remains crowded. |
Top 10 wide receiver TD props for Week 9
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown* ( vs. ) |
50% | 76 | Motion and slot isolation manufacture premium looks near paydirt. |
| Courtland Sutton ( vs. ) |
26% | 75 | Size and boundary leverage fit Denver's condensed-field concepts. |
| Jameson Williams ( vs. ) |
37% | 75 | Vertical gravity creates explosive scores beyond conventional red-zone usage. |
| Ryan Flournoy ( vs. ) |
27% | 73 | Boundary snaps create opportunities opposite concentrated defensive attention. |
| Xavier Worthy ( vs. ) |
26% | 72 | Motion, jet action, and speed create varied touchdown routes. |
| CeeDee Lamb ( vs. ) |
53% | 72 | Formation versatility ensures concentrated looks near the goal line. |
| Caleb Douglas ( vs. ) |
26% | 71 | Emerging boundary role benefits from Miami's compressed-field distribution. |
| Parker Washington ( vs. ) |
38% | 70 | Slot leverage and manufactured touches preserve scoring access. |
| Rashee Rice ( vs. ) |
42% | 70 | YAC-focused routes and motion manufacture efficient red-zone separation. |
| Jordan Watkins ( vs. ) |
18% | 69 | Speed complements heavy play-action, opening deep scoring chances. |
* currently listed as Questionable on the Week 9 Injury Report
Top 10 tight end TD props for Week 9
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride ( vs. ) |
33% | 79 | Arizona funnels condensed-field targets through its premier mismatch. |
| Sam LaPorta ( vs. ) |
33% | 76 | Play-action routes exploit linebackers overcommitting to Detroit's rushing threat. |
| George Kittle ( vs. ) |
55% | 76 | Blocking disguise creates uncovered leaks near the goal line. |
| Travis Kelce ( vs. ) |
35% | 75 | Option-route chemistry remains Kansas City's most reliable scoring mechanism. |
| Juwan Johnson ( vs. ) |
20% | 72 | Seam and back-line usage sustain premium end-zone access. |
| AJ Barner ( vs. ) |
25% | 71 | Full-time routes and play-action leaks support continued scoring chances. |
| Brenton Strange ( vs. ) |
27% | 71 | Expanded route participation strengthens intermediate and end-zone involvement. |
| Isaiah Likely ( vs. ) |
31% | 71 | Flexible alignment creates favorable matchups against slower Philadelphia defenders. |
| Dallas Goedert ( vs. ) |
26% | 71 | Middle-field access improves with opposing safeties occupied elsewhere. |
| Davis Allen ( vs. ) |
16% | 70 | Red-zone snaps could grow if injury reshapes tight-end rotation. |
How we decide which Week 9 NFL anytime TDs to pick
Behind the Covers Anytime Touchdown Value Index is a screening matrix built on structural math to help make the best anytime TD scorer predictions every week. For the raw player numbers, browse our NFL prop projections.
We don't care about media hype. We don't care who went viral on Sunday.
Our system runs a multi-layered data ingest, cross-referencing live play-by-play mechanics against odds from the sharpest sportsbooks in the world. We look at more than 20 hyper-specific metrics, including:
| Player red-zone touches, inside the opponent's 20-yard line | Weekly point spread |
| Player goal-to-go touches, approximated as touches inside the 5-yard line | Implied team total, derived from the total and spread |
| Player share of the team's red-zone touches | Best available anytime-touchdown price |
| Player share of the team's goal-to-go touches | Number of sportsbooks offering that price |
| Player red-zone touchdowns | Implied probability |
| Player red-zone touchdown rate per red-zone touch | Median market implied probability when multiple books are supplied |
| Team red-zone trips | Number of completed games played by the player's team |
| Team offensive red-zone touchdown percentage | Prior-season weighting, used while the current-season sample develops |
| Opponent red-zone trips faced | Current injuries, availability, workload changes, and role stability |
| Opponent red-zone touchdown percentage allowed | Player position, team, opponent, and scheduled matchup |
| Weekly game total | |
This isn't a black box running on mystery algorithms. It is a highly calibrated heuristic engine.
We map our proprietary scoring against the market's implied probability to isolate the exact friction points where pricing lags behind actual on-field volume. It is a premium, data-driven edge built to find the value before the market wakes up.
The lines are already moving. The public is currently throwing money at stale narratives. Trust the math and exploit the structural friction to secure your closing line value before kickoff.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
