The 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs will be looking to continue their bounce back from a slow start when they travel to Duval County to take on the 3-1 Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football.
Both offenses have the talent and capability of being explosive, and that gives us tons of possible Chiefs vs. Jaguars anytime touchdown picks.
Here are my top free NFL picks for Monday, October 6.
Chiefs anytime touchdown pick
Xavier Worthy (+155 at bet365)
Xavier Worthy was injured early in his Week 1 game on a crosser that ran into his own teammate, Travis Kelce. He returned last week and was a welcome addition for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense.
Worthy had five catches on eight targets for 83 yards. He also got two rush attempts for 38 yards. It was clear that they wanted to get him the ball in many different forms, and volume will be expected again here on Monday night.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been good at defending the deep pass and rank second in the NFL in passing efficiency defense, but a lot of that has been because the opposing quarterbacks have been Bryce Young, Jake Browning, C.J. Stroud, and a hurt Brock Purdy.
Despite their efficiency numbers, the Jags have still allowed 934 yards and seven touchdowns through the air. That ranks 24th in the NFL in yards allowed and 19th in touchdowns allowed.
Worthy does not have a touchdown yet this year but that is only one game and about half a quarter. Last year he had nine total touchdowns, and I love his chances of getting his first of 2025 on Monday night.
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Jaguars anytime touchdown pick
Trevor Lawrence (+400 at bet365)
This one is a bit of a longshot, but there is some solid logic for why the Jacksonville quarterback can find the end zone here with his legs.
Trevor Lawrence has struggled this year passing when facing zone coverage. He has the second-lowest passer rating and third-fewest yards per attempt.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has varied coverages significantly by game. In each of Week 1 and Week 2, he played man coverage on at least 36%+ of dropbacks. In Week 3 against the New York Giants, he did so on just 10.5% of dropbacks.
I expect the Chiefs to play lots of zone with some blitzes mixed in, and that will likely force Lawrence to scramble more than usual. The Chiefs have given up quite a few scrambles this year and have allowed one quarterback rushing touchdown already.
Lawrence does not have a ton of yards scrambling this year, but he has taken off at least twice in each game this season and has 15 carries overall.
When they get in the red zone, the Chiefs zone defense will likely force him to call his own number, and I like these odds given he will very likely get at least one carry near the goal line.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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