Kansas City @ Jacksonville Picks & Props

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 65.4% red zone pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 129.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week. The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to throw 37.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most out of all QBs. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in football.

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 65.4% red zone pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 129.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in football. Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-fewest touchdowns in football (0.25 per game) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 60.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest clip among all teams this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 129.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number among all games this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The Jacksonville offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all pass game statistics across the board.

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 65.4% red zone pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 129.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in football. Isiah Pacheco ranks in the 91st percentile among running backs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.25 per game.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 60.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest clip among all teams this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 129.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number among all games this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The predictive model expects Brenton Strange to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack near the goal line in this week's contest (14.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 60.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest clip among all teams this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 129.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number among all games this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The Jacksonville offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all pass game statistics across the board.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 60.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest clip among all teams this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 129.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number among all games this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The projections expect Trevor Lawrence to throw 37.1 passes in this game, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 65.4% red zone pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 129.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in football. With an elite 16.0% Red Zone Target Rate (83rd percentile) this year, Travis Kelce has been as one of the tight ends with the most usage near the goal line in the league.