There are 32 NFL stadiums, and 20 of them have no roof to speak of. That means Mother Nature can wreak havoc on a football game at just about any time, throwing wind, snow, rain, and punishing temperatures at the combatants, so NFL bettors have to be on their toes.
Isolating what the forecast has in store for NFL games can help you make smarter football bets.
NFL weather effects at a glance:
• Most weather only has light to moderate effects on NFL outcomes.
• Wind is the most reliable weather condition to account for due to the sample size.
• Wind's effect may seem underwhelming at first, but contextualizing performance can show its significant impact.
• Precipitation is nuanced in its effect depending on the type (rain or snow) and the severity.
• Accounting for extreme temperatures is easy.
Of the four major American sports, the NFL has always been unique in its lone willingness to brave the weather for all of its games. That was especially evident on January 13, 2024, when the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs played in the fourth coldest game in NFL history.
Fierce winds contributed to -27 degree weather that had teams and coaches alike huddling for warmth on the sidelines.
The NBA and NHL exclusively play indoors, and MLB will call games or use retractable roofs when the conditions become too harsh. Sure, football has its fair share of domes too, but the large majority of NFL venues are entirely open to the whims of Mother Nature.
That's not to knock games played in domes. Having perfectly controlled conditions to play in lends its hands to more high-scoring affairs: games in domes average almost four more points than games played outdoors.
And although we know scoring has been outpacing Vegas totals for some time, the effect is even more observable in domes. Games in domes outpace Overs by more than twice as much (1.6 points on average) as outdoor games (0.7 points).
With that in mind, it's essential to know what to look for when handicapping outdoor elements. Missing even one key weather factor can tip an edge from existing to disappearing, leading to unrealized profits or misled losses. Whether it's wind, precipitation, or temperature, it's crucial to account for everything.
Wind
The wind is the most reliable and predictive weather factor as it has the largest sample size. The average wind speed for an NFL game is around seven miles per hour, so use that as your baseline when looking at a slate’s weather conditions.
From that mark, every passing metric decreases as wind speed increases whether it’s raw production (passing yards, passing touchdowns, etc.) or efficiency (completion percentage, yards per attempt, QB rating, adjusted net yards per attempt, etc.).
The wind hits passing production more significantly than passing efficiency, but we should expect scoring as a whole to decrease as wind speeds increase.
One caveat is the wind's effect on passing is much more drastic once it hits 20+ mph. The decrease going from 0-10 mph to 10-15 mph is about the same as going from 10-15 mph to 15-20 mph, but the decrease is about 1.5-2.0x as large when going from 15-20 mph to 20+ mph. That’s not to undermine wind speeds from 10-20 mph but to emphasize the importance of a game hitting 20+ mph.
Another thing to consider with wind is the field goal. Bettors make common mistakes when analyzing kicking data in windy conditions, and the most significant error comes when looking at “mild” wind (10-15 mph).
The difference is almost negligible when looking at field-goal percentage in 0-15 mph winds (~83%) vs. 15-20 mph (~80%). As a result, the common conclusion is wind doesn’t affect field-goal kicking until it reaches 20 mph, but that is a bit misleading.
The first thing to establish is obvious: field goal percentage is a product of field goal distance (the shorter the field goal distance, the more likely it will convert).
The thing to note is the average distance of field goals attempted in windier conditions (15-20 mph wind) is shorter than in favorable conditions (0-15 mph). This makes sense. The windier it is, the less likely a coach is willing to go for a long field goal.
So, if field goals are made at similar rates in more windy conditions than in favorable conditions despite the field goals being of shorter distance, then the wind is a factor.
This effect, much like passing, is much worse when we reach 20+ mph winds. At 20+ mph winds, the average field goal distance drops around seven yards, and the conversion rate drops around 6%. But again, we have to consider the expected rate given the lower distance.
In 20+ mph winds, the much shorter average distance should yield an expected make rate of nearly 89%, yet only 77% of kicks are made. To put it quite simply, that is a massive discrepancy.
Impact of wind on NFL passing and kicking
| Wind speed | Passing impact | Kicking impact |
|---|---|---|
| 0–7 mph | Normal passing production and efficiency; scoring unaffected. | Field-goal percentage ~83% with standard attempt distances. |
| 7–10 mph | Slight decrease in passing production and efficiency; minor effect on scoring. | Minimal impact on field-goal rates; coaches still attempt long kicks. |
| 10–15 mph | Noticeable decline in passing stats; similar drop in efficiency as next tier. | Field-goal percentage still ~83%; but slightly shorter average attempts begin. |
| 15–20 mph | Further drop in passing production and efficiency; cumulative decline similar to prior tier. | Field-goal percentage ~80%; average distance of attempts is shorter than in lighter winds. |
| 20+ mph | Major drop (1.5–2x greater impact than 15–20 mph); severe decline in passing production, efficiency, and scoring. | Average field-goal distance drops by ~7 yards. Expected make rate ~89%, but actual rate only ~77% — a massive discrepancy. |
Precipitation
Precipitation is a trickier weather condition to handicap. The sample sizes are a bit hard to reliably work with because it can be challenging to isolate precipitation’s actual effect on play versus the compounding results coming from other weather effects commonly present during rain (wind) and snow (wind and temperature).
Generally speaking, there is no difference between light rain, moderate rain, or heavy rain.
This probably seems intuitively strange as it is easy to imagine players slipping around everywhere in a torrential downpour. However, it is important to remember that we are trying to isolate precipitation from other conditions.
Nevertheless, the presence of any kind of rain decreases passing production by around 12%.
However, there is a difference between lighter and heavier snow.
Despite what you might think, light snow (in isolation) has a very negligible effect on passing production. When compared to games played in ideal conditions, passing production only decreases by 2% in light snow.
This is a massive contrast to heavier forms of snow, in which passing production drops by 25% on average.
Rain and snow certainly have an effect when it comes to field goals. In the presence of no precipitation, the actual FG% is about equal to the expected conversion rate of the average field goal distance in those conditions (~83%).
In the presence of rain, FG% actually jumps to around 85%, but this is because (like with wind) the average distance is noticeably lower. Despite the shorter attempts in the rain, the field goal percentage is around 2% lower than expected given historical make rates of those distances
Snow, on the other hand, has a much more significant effect on kicking. Field goals in snowy conditions convert at just a 76% rate, a 7% drop from the norm. When adding the context of the much shorter attempts in snow, the 76% make rate is nearly 12% lower than the expectation of those shorter field goal attempts (88%).
Impact of precipitation on NFL passing and kicking
| Condition | Passing impact | Kicking impact |
|---|---|---|
| No precipitation | Normal passing production and efficiency. | FG% ~83%, aligned with expected make rate. |
| Rain (light, moderate, heavy – grouped) | Passing production decreases by ~12% (regardless of rain intensity). | FG% ~85% due to shorter average attempts, but ~2% lower than expected for those distances. |
| Light snow | Negligible impact; passing production decreases by only ~2%. | Minor data impact; close to normal conversion rates. |
| Heavy snow | Significant impact; passing production decreases by ~25%. | FG% drops to ~76%, which is ~12% lower than expected given shorter average attempts (expected ~88%). |
Temperature
Temperature is relatively straightforward. There are typically no significant deviations in performance when looking at the temperature range of 55-85 degrees, which is generally considered "ideal" for this weather condition.
From 25-55 degrees, passing production dips by 5%. When going below 25 degrees AND when going above 85 degrees, there is about an 8% decrease.
Takeaways
So here is what we should be looking for when looking at weather conditions:
| Condition | Effect |
|---|---|
| Wind (10-15 mph) | Light |
| Gust (20+ mph) | Moderate |
| Rain (any) | Moderate |
| Light snow | None |
| Heavier snow | Heavy |
| Cold (22-55 degrees) | Light |
| Extreme cold (<25 degrees) | Moderate |
| Extreme heat (>85 degrees) | Moderate |
It is crucial to keep in mind that although we spent this exercise isolating weather effects, you should be mindful of compounding effects (for example, rain with gusts) when looking at a slate's weather. All in all, this comprehensive look at the weather's impact on NFL games should be a great tool in your arsenal moving forward.
Stay up to date on the latest conditions around the league with our robust NFL Weather page. We also include handy NFL weather widgets in all of our NFL game previews. They include pertinent information for bettors such as temperature, possibility of precipitation, and wind speed and direction.
Has an NFL game ever been cancelled due to weather?
Yes, on multiple occasions. The table below highlights instances when NFL games were fully cancelled due to extreme conditions, alongside notable cases of games that were moved rather than called off.
The last row captures a broader pattern: while cancellations are unusual, relocations and rescheduling are more common responses to severe weather or environmental hazards. For example, hurricanes have forced the league to move games from Florida to safer stadiums, snowstorms have shifted contests to Detroit’s Ford Field, and even earthquakes have altered schedules. These adjustments ensure games can be played safely while preserving competitive balance and minimizing disruption to the season.
| Year | Game | Type | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Bengals vs. Texans (preseason) | Cancelled | Hurricane Harvey |
| 2021 | Cardinals vs. Saints (preseason) | Cancelled | Hurricane Ida |
| 2016 | Hall of Fame Game (Bears vs. Texans) | Canceled | Unsafe field (not weather) |
| 2024 | Hall of Fame Game (Bears vs. Texans) | Called off | Lightning and thunderstorms |
| Various | Regular-season/preseason games | Moved/events | Earthquake, hurricanes, storms |
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NFL weather impact FAQs
Extreme cold weather can cause passing production to dip about eight percent when going below 25 degrees Fahrenheit.
Wind affects NFL betting more than any other condition. The higher the wind speed, the worse the passing metrics become.
Light snow has very little effect on NFL outcomes, but does impact NFL kicking. Field goals in snowy conditions convert at just a 76 percent rate.
Rain has little effect on football outcomes, but does decrease passing production.
If an NFL game is cancelled due to weather, it is typically not replayed or rescheduled unless it significantly impacts playoff standings. Instead, the league either declares the game a “no contest” or adjusts the season schedule by moving or relocating games to ensure player and fan safety.
Buffalo is often considered the NFL city with the worst weather, thanks to its heavy lake-effect snow, frequent blizzards, and bitterly cold late-season games. These extreme conditions have even forced games to be relocated, such as snowstorm moves to Detroit’s Ford Field.
The Green Bay Packers experience the coldest weather in the NFL, with Lambeau Field regularly hosting games in subzero temperatures during December and January. Historic matchups like the 1967 “Ice Bowl” highlight the team’s reputation for enduring brutal Midwest conditions.
Yes, cold weather affects NFL kickers because the football becomes denser and harder in low temperatures, reducing kicking distance and hang time. Wind and icy field conditions further challenge accuracy, making long field goals much more difficult in winter games.
Hot weather affects NFL games by increasing the risk of player dehydration, heat exhaustion, and cramping, which can slow the pace of play and require more frequent substitutions. High field temperatures, especially on artificial turf, can also impact performance and stamina, forcing teams to adjust strategies to maintain energy levels.
Weather delays in the NFL, most often caused by lightning, typically last at least 30 minutes after the last strike is detected within an 8-mile radius. However, delays can extend for hours if dangerous conditions persist, and in rare cases, games may be postponed or called off entirely.
