The Kansas City Chiefs are playing in prime time again, visiting the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars.
Our NFL player prop projections have identified the best value plays among the MNF prop offerings, including Patrick Mahomes using his legs and the Jaguars' passing game finally showing up.
Chiefs vs Jaguars computer picks for Monday Night Football
 Chiefs |
 Jaguars |
|---|---|
| Mahomes o21.5 rush -110 | Lawrence o216.5 pass -110 |
| Pacheco o6.5 rec -110 | Etienne u64.5 rush -110 |
| Worthy o51.5 rec -110 | Thomas o57.5 rec -110 |
| Kelce u43.5 rec -110 | Strange o34.5 rec -110 |
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Chiefs MNF computer picks
Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 rushing yards (-110)
Projection: 29.24 yards
Mahomes easily topped this number against two tough defenses, then didn't run much against two weak defenses. The Jags are closer to the tougher side, so our projections expect Mahomes to run again tonight.
Alternate-total bet
30+ yards (+165) - Shows a solid level of value.
Isiah Pacheco Over 6.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 11.35 yards
Pacheco has topped this number twice this season, and we expect him to make it a third time tonight.
Xavier Worthy Over 51.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 58.32 yards
Worthy was the clear WR1 in his first full game of the season last week, and we're forecasting him to have another productive outing tonight.
Travis Kelce u43.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 34.71 yards
Our projections expect the star TE to be quiet tonight, projecting him to fall well below his posted total.
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Jaguars MNF computer picks
Trevor Lawrence Over 216.5 passing yards (-110)
Projection: 236.67 yards
Lawrence is 2-2 against this number so far, but our projections like him to go Over tonight.
Alternate-total bet
225+ yards (+110) - This price shows a ton of value.
Travis Etienne Under 64.5 rushing yards (-110)
Projection: 57.26 yards
Etienne's only time not topping this number was against Houston's elite run defense. KC isn't quite as good, but our projections still expect him to have a quiet evening.
Brian Thomas Jr. Over 57.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 64.43 yards
We're expecting the Jags to be busier in the pass game tonight, which means their star WR goes Over this number for the first time all season.
Brenton Strange Over 34.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 39.1 yards
Our projections also forecast another solid game for Jacksonville's TE, who has posted 45+ yards in three of four games so far.
Alternate-total bet
40+ yards (+130) - Shows a little bit of value, but not a ton.
Not intended for use in MA.
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