The Jacksonville Jaguars will look to move to 4-1 on the year as they host the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 5 of the NFL season.
I like both quarterbacks to toss the ball enough to hit their totals, and I’m also taking Travis Etienne Jr. to continue his fast start in my Chiefs vs. Jaguars predictions.
Let’s look at the best MNF player props in my free NFL picks for Monday, October 6, and be sure to also check out our full Chiefs vs. Jaguars predictions ahead of kickoff!
Chiefs vs Jaguars MNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Patrick Mahomes |
Over 36.5 passing attempts | -115 |
 Trevor Lawrence |
Over 216.5 passing yards | -110 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. |
Over 63.5 rushing yards | -110 |
Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 passing attempts
While the Kansas City Chiefs haven’t been brilliant in any aspect of their offensive attack this year, one thing is clear: this is still Patrick Mahomes’ offense.
He's thrown for seven touchdown passes and 939 yards over the first four weeks of the season, powering the offense while the running game — outside of Mahomes himself — hasn’t been as productive as Kansas City would like.
If that dynamic doesn’t change, the Chiefs will lean even more heavily into the passing game.
Mahomes has plenty of options in the passing game and is comfortable airing out the ball. His greatest success came last week, when he exploded for four touchdown passes against the Baltimore Ravens.
Mahomes has thrown at least 37 passes in three of his first four games, and should be tasked with throwing all game long in a close game against a tough Jacksonville defense.
Trevor Lawrence Over 216.5 pasing yards
If you’re a fantasy team owner, Trevor Lawrence isn’t the most productive quarterback. But he has consistently put up steady results for the Jacksonville Jaguars when healthy, and that includes moving the ball as a necessary balance to their excellent running game.
Lawrence has averaged 211.3 yards per game in 2025, but he’s surpassed tonight’s total in two of his four games. That includes a 271-yard performance against the Cincinnati Bengals, and he’ll probably need to put up similar numbers to keep the Jaguars in the game on Monday night.
Kansas City hasn’t been terrible at defending the pass, but opposing quarterbacks are completing a strong 66.9% of their passes. That may play right into Lawrence’s hands if Jacksonville reasonably asks him to move the chains without looking to push the ball downfield too hard.
Lawrence is coming off arguably his most efficient game of the year against the San Francisco 49ers and will be asked to put up more volume against Kansas City. That’s enough for me to predict he makes it Over a very modest yardage total.
Travis Etienne Jr. Over 63.5 rushing yards
With all respect to Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr. is the real former Clemson star who is excelling in Jacksonville. The 26-year-old running back is averaging an outstanding 6.1 yards per rush and has already eclipsed the 100-yard mark twice this year.
Etienne is coming off a down year when he averaged a career low 3.7 yards per carry and just two touchdowns as part of a platoon with Tank Bigsby.
However, Bigsby was moved in the offseason, and new head coach Liam Coen has emphasized Etienne in the Jacksonville offense, making him one of the leading rushers in the NFL.
That production figures to continue Monday night. The Chiefs are giving up 4.9 yards per rush on the year, and have already allowed two running backs to go for 65+ yards this season. Opponents are gaining 127 yards per game against Kansas City.
Etienne has hit that mark in three of his first four games and was close in the fourth. This total is far too low for someone playing like an elite runner against a struggling run defense, so I’m taking the Over.
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Chiefs vs Jaguars MNF prop betting card
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