The Bengals vs. Falcons anytime touchdown scorer predictions take center stage Sunday, Nov. 8, at Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid, Spain.
Cincinnati enters as a 3.5-point favorite for the 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff, with a 52.5-point total. My touchdown angles target overlooked value, including a contrarian scoring outcome.
Check out more NFL picks for Sunday's action.
Best Bengals vs Falcons anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Mike Gesicki |
31% |
 Bijan Robinson: No TD |
34% |
| First TD: Ja'Marr Chase |
12% |
| Long shot: Joe Burrow |
16% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Bengals touchdown pick: Mike Gesicki
I love the price on Cincinnati Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki's anytime touchdown prop at 31%, and up to 35%.
Gesicki is only the fourth-highest-priced Bengal in this market, despite tying Ja'Marr Chase for a team-best six total touchdowns and finding the end zone in five straight games.
The matchup dynamics help, too.
Defenses can't devote much extra attention to Gesicki with Chase and wide receiver Tee Higgins commanding outside coverage. That gives Gesicki favorable one-on-one looks in scoring territory, and at this price, the market is underrating his touchdown equity.
Falcons touchdown pick: Bijan Robinson, No TD
There's more value in taking the No for Bijan Robinson's anytime touchdown prop at 34%, up to 38%.
Robinson's four rushing touchdowns this season have come in two games. Bijan scored a receiving touchdown in another game, but he's failed to score in five of his eight contests this season.
The Bengals have allowed just five rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this season and none receiving. Furthermore, Cincinnati's defensive front leads the league in stuff rate, according to Pro.NFL.com.
Cincinnati bolstered its defensive line this offseason, including acquiring three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II in a trade with the Giants. He has been the second-best player at his position this year out of 128 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus.
First touchdown scorer pick: Ja'Marr Chase
This is a good enough payout for the best offensive player in this game, and I'd be willing to trade Ja'Marr Chase's first touchdown scorer prop up to 14%.
The 2024 receiving Triple Crown champion has scored in five of the last six games, including three straight, and he's clearly Cincinnati's most dangerous weapon whenever the Bengals get near the end zone.
Chase scored the game's first touchdown against the Houston Texans in Week 2. That's one opening touchdown in seven games, or a 14.3% hit rate, which is slightly better than his current price.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow's mobility is underrated, and I'll sprinkle on him to score a rushing touchdown up to 20%. Burrow has already scored twice this season, and he has 14 career rushing touchdowns.
According to Warren Sharp, the Falcons play the 10th-highest rate of man defense in the NFL. Generally, quarterbacks have more success scrambling against man defense rather than zone.
In man, defensive backs are focused on covering their assigned receivers rather than watching the quarterback. Conversely, in zone, defenders typically keep their eyes on the quarterback, allowing them to react more quickly when he scrambles.
I could see Burrow taking off for a touchdown if Atlanta isn't paying attention to him, or sneaking in for one on the goal line.
Bengals vs Falcons touchdown combo
The touchdown markets offer two different angles on how Cincinnati and Atlanta should operate near the goal line. The Bengals have several ways to get Chase into the end zone, whether it's a designed red-zone target or Burrow finding him for an explosive play.
Atlanta, meanwhile, has a tougher path to scoring on the ground against Cincinnati's improved defensive front. Even if Robinson gets his usual workload, I'm not convinced he'll get enough quality scoring opportunities to justify his price.
I like the payout for Chase's anytime touchdown at 59% combined with Robinson going scoreless.
- TD picks: 21-45, -12.08 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
