The Kansas City Chiefs face the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium on Monday Night Football, and our focus here is on the Patrick Mahomes odds, with the KC quarterback facing an overachieving Jaguars defense.
I’ve taken a long look at his markets to find the very best ways to get involved with the Chiefs superstar on Monday Night Football.
Patrick Mahomes prop pick
Patrick Mahomes best bet: Over 0.5 interceptions (-115 at bet365)
In order for the Kansas City Chiefs to win, they’re going to need Patrick Mahomes at his best.
It’s been a mixed season for the future Hall of Fame quarterback so far. He’s only had one game with multiple touchdown passes, which reflects him only having a QBR over 90 once. He also faces a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that's improved greatly since last season.
That isn’t to say that this is a blue-chip defense; it isn’t. However, last year, the Jaguars were frankly a disgrace. They averaged 257.4 passing yards allowed per game and ranked sixth for passing yards allowed. They were a passing funnel and were routinely getting shredded by opposing quarterbacks. This season, they've become a turnover machine.
Nobody in the NFL has more interceptions than the Jaguars through the opening month of the season. Incidentally, they’re also just one forced fumble behind the league leader for that stat, too. It’s an incredible turnaround for this Jaguars defense, which already has nine interceptions this season, when they had just six across the whole of last season.
Mahomes needs to be very careful with the football against this unit, and while he’s given up just one pick this season, he’s historically given away far more. He was intercepted 12 times in 16 regular-season games last season and has a total of 75 interceptions in 116 regular-season games.
With Travis Hunter getting an increasing amount of reps on defense, there’s a real chance this defensive unit could keep improving. We’re taking them to continue their impressive takeaway record on Monday.
Patrick Mahomes same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions
Hollywood Brown Over 3.5 receptions
JuJu Smith-Schuster anytime touchdown
In addition to our best bet, we’re also backing Hollywood Brown to go Over 3.5 receptions. The 28-year-old had become an integral part of this Chiefs offense with Xavier Worthy sidelined and Rashee Rice suspended.
While Worthy has returned and Rice will soon, he’s done enough to still see plenty of the football. He’s had an average of 5.5 receptions on eight targets per game and should cover his line hon Monday.
For the final leg, we’re backing JuJu Smith-Schuster to find the endzone. The veteran wideout has only scored once this season, but he’s been a popular target for Mahomes. He actually leads the entire team in terms of red zone targets, even ahead of Travis Kelce.
With that kind of volume, he’s worth backing and could be a sneaky play with the Jacksonville defense focused on other bigger-name players inside the 20.
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