Jon Sumrall returns to Kroger Field in Lexington, Ky., on Saturday, Nov. 14, at 6:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) when his Florida program takes on his alma mater, Kentucky.
The Wildcats are 3.5-point home favorites, and my Florida vs. Kentucky prediction and college football picks expect Will Stein's team to win this game in the trenches.
Who will win Florida vs Kentucky: Kentucky -3.5
After a hot September that had Florida ranked in the top 10 and climbing the college football national championship odds, the Gators have been one of the worst teams in the SEC.
Since upsetting Ole Miss, Florida is 1-4 straight-up and against the spread, and their struggles will continue against Jon Sumrall's alma mater. I would take Kentucky to cover up to -4.5.
Florida is coming off its worst loss of the season, losing 23-17 at home to Oklahoma as a 3.5-point favorite, and switching back to Aaron Philo at QB won't save a team that's averaging 15.6 points per game since the start of October. The last time we saw Philo, he was benched in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
Kentucky's defense isn't Georgia's, but it is disruptive enough to slow Florida down. The Wildcats rank 21st nationally in havoc rate (18.9%) and seventh in interceptions (12).
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TOP PICK
Florida vs Kentucky Over/Under pick: Over 52.5
Florida's defense has been the death of it all season, and it hit an all-time low last week, making John Mateer look good. Kentucky's offense is far more efficient, and the reason I'd play the Over at 52.5 or better.
The Wildcats have one of the best offensive lines in the country, paving the way for a unit ranked 16th nationally in success rate (49.2%). With Kenny Minchey's efficiency (77.8% adjusted completion percentage) and the Wildcats' advantage on the line, they shouldn't have trouble converting on money downs against a defense sitting 132nd in third/fourth down success rate (54.8%).
However, the Gators will move the ball too against a Kentucky defense that struggles to stop the run. The Wildcats are currently 96th in defensive success rate (45.8%), and Florida running back Jadan Baugh ranks top 10 nationally in forced missed tackles (48).
COVERS INTEL: Florida has one of the worst defenses in the Power Four, ranking 122nd in defensive success rate (48.2%), 101st in EPA per dropback, 95th in EPA per rush, and 98th in available yards percentage.Florida vs Kentucky combo
During Florida's skid, its biggest issue has been slow starts. In its five games since the start of October, the Gators have trailed by 6+ points at halftime in each. Florida won and covered in just one of those games.
If that trend continues, Kentucky should pull away in the second half, especially with Florida's defensive issues. Earlier in the season, the Gators could make up for the fact that their defense has one of the worst secondaries in the country, but since losing top wide receiver Vernell Brown III, they haven't been the same.
The sophomore was averaging 3.87 yards per route run with zero drops; Florida's other starting receivers each have a drop rate of at least 7.7%. Brown hasn't played since the upset win over Ole Miss and is once again listed out on the SEC injury report.
Florida vs Kentucky combo
- Kentucky -3.5
- Over 52.5
- Kentucky first half -2.5
- Top picks: 23-17, +3.2 units
- Combos: 10-30, -0.14 units
Florida vs Kentucky odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Florida +3.5 | Kentucky -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 (50%) | Under 52.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Florida 41% | Kentucky 59%
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Florida vs Kentucky weather
Weather isn't expected to have an effect on the game in Lexington, Ky., on Saturday evening.
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Florida vs Kentucky trend to know
Kentucky is 5-2 ATS in SEC play this season. Find more college football betting trends for Florida vs. Kentucky.
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How to watch Florida vs Kentucky
| Location | Kroger Field, Lexington, Ky. |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 6:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Florida vs Kentucky latest injuries
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