North Dakota State aims to continue a successful first season at the FBS level as it travels to the island to face Hawaii in Week 11's nightcap.
The market has the visitors at 70% to win and -6.5 against the spread, and my North Dakota State vs. Hawaii prediction thinks they're well-positioned to implement their style of play even with strong winds in the forecast.
Tune in to this contest at 11 pm ET on the CW Network, and read on for my betting preview and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 14.
TOP PICK
Who will win North Dakota State vs Hawaii: North Dakota State -6.5
In a game with sustained winds above 20 mph, back the team that can consistently run the football. Play North Dakota State at -7 or better.
The Bison are fully rested off a bye week and are ready to implement their physical style. The big uglies up front can create room against a Hawaii defense ranked 130th in PFF's rush defense grade and surrendering 171 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry.
Defense travels, and Tim Polasek's squad allows the second-fewest ppg (11.9) in the nation.
NDSU limits opponents to 248.8 total yards per game and 4.4 yards per play, and will control the flow of this game en route to a relatively comfortable victory.
COVERS INTEL: Hawaii throws the ball at the second-highest rate (62.2%) in the country but generates few chunk plays with the eighth-least explosive passing offense. 
North Dakota State vs Hawaii Over/Under pick: Over 38.5
The weather and NDSU's stingy defense create a recipe where points are at a premium. Still, does that excuse a total all the way down at 38.5?
I'm willing to buy back at that number. Hawaii's offense stunk to begin the year, but has been a lot better (24th in success rate on standard downs since Week 6), and the market isn't accounting for the recent gains.
The Bison, meanwhile, check in at 28th in PFF's overall offensive grade. You're telling me they can't find points against a Hawaii defense allowing 6.0 yards per play?
North Dakota State vs Hawaii combo
NDSU has hit the first-half moneyline in seven of its last nine games.
Polasek's squad can get the ground game going, allowing Hayes to hit play-action shots against a defense that has struggled to contain much of anyone.
The total is low enough to buy back with an Over given NDSU's favorable outlook and Hawaii's recent offensive improvements.
North Dakota State vs Hawaii combo
- North Dakota State first-half moneyline
- North Dakota State -6.5
- Over 38.5
- Top picks: 15-10, +4.54 units
- Combos: 8-17, +19.93 units
North Dakota State vs Hawaii odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: North Dakota State -6.5 | Hawaii +6.5
- Over/Under: Over 38.5 (53%) | Under 38.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: North Dakota State 70% | Hawaii 30%
For the full slate of college football matchups, check out our college football odds board!
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North Dakota State vs Hawaii weather
The severe wind (23 mph sustained, 33 mph gusts) will limit the effectiveness of both passing attacks.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
North Dakota State vs Hawaii trend to know
Hawaii is 1-5 ATS in its last six games lined within a touchdown. Find more college football betting trends for North Dakota State vs. Hawaii.
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How to watch North Dakota State vs Hawaii
| Location | Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, Hawaii |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 11 p.m. ET |
| TV | CW Network |
North Dakota State vs Hawaii latest injuries
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