Saturday's Big 12 showdown could turn Boone Pickens Stadium into a fireworks factory.
My Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State prediction targets a few intriguing angles as the No. 25 Cowboys host No. 12 Texas Tech at 9:30 p.m. ET, favored by 3.5 with a whopping 72.5-point total.
Check out all of our Week 11 college football picks for Nov. 14.
TOP PICK
Who will win Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State -3.5
I’ll take the Oklahoma State Cowboys -3.5, up to -4.5, as I expect the public to gravitate toward the higher-ranked, reigning Big 12 champion catching 3-and-the-hook.
However, the underlying numbers favor Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys rank 16th nationally in schedule-adjusted net EPA per play, compared with 32nd for the Texas Tech Red Raiders, per GameOnPaper.com. And while laying -3.5 is never comfortable, it’s less intimidating in a game with a 70-plus-point total, where one score represents a smaller share of the expected scoring.
Oklahoma State also owns the best win on either resume, upsetting a healthy Oregon team in Week 2 when the Ducks were 24-point favorites.
COVERS INTEL: According to CollegeFootballData.com, Oklahoma State has a better early-down success rate differential (+9.1% vs. +8.5%) despite playing a tougher schedule. 
Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State Over/Under pick: Over 72.5
Give me the Over 72.5, up to 74.5, because the market is practically begging you to take the Under on one of Week 11's highest totals.
I'm not falling for it. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are a combined 11-1 to the Over in conference play, and neither offense wastes time. The Red Raiders rank ninth nationally in seconds per play, while the Cowboys are 16th.
That pace means more possessions and more opportunities to score, which matters when both teams have repeatedly cleared their totals in conference play. This has track meet written all over it, and I don't think the market can hang a number high enough.
Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State combo
Good luck keeping this game under control once the Cowboys start hitting explosive plays. Texas Tech has the offense to trade punches, but its defense is a liability against Drew Mestemaker and Oklahoma State's passing attack.
That should put the Red Raiders in catch-up mode early, which only adds fuel to a potential shootout. Ultimately, Texas Tech can do its part offensively without ruining Oklahoma State's chances of covering.
Give me a fast start and four quarters of fireworks.
Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State combo
- Cowboys -3.5
- Over 72.5
- Oklahoma State -2.5 1H
- Top picks: 18-24, -7.40 units
- Combos: 4-38, -21.30 units
Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Texas Tech +3.5 | Oklahoma State -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 72.5 (53%) | Under 72.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Texas Tech 42% | Oklahoma State 63%
For the full slate of college football matchups, check out our college football odds board!
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Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State weather
Saturday night's forecast in Stillwater calls for temperatures around 47°F, winds near 11 mph, and a 47% chance of rain.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State trend to know
The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in Big 12 games this season. Find more college football betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State.
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How to watch Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State
| Location | Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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