No. 14 Houston is laying 9.5 points at Colorado tonight, but the Cougars’ defensive issues could make this trip to Folsom Field uncomfortable. Kickoff is set for 10:15 p.m. ET, with the total at 51.5.
My Houston vs. Colorado prediction breaks down how those weaknesses shape my spread, total, and first-quarter bets.
Read on for my analysis and free college football picks for Friday, Nov. 13.
TOP PICK
Who will win Houston vs Colorado: Colorado +9.5
I'm following the line movement and taking Colorado down to +8.5. The Buffaloes opened as 10.5-point underdogs and have been steamed down despite being just 2-6-1 against the spread.
More importantly, Houston's defense isn't good enough to be laying more than -7.5 on the road. The Cougars are 108th nationally in yards per play allowed against FBS schools and 118th in defensive third-down conversion rate.
That helps explain Houston's 1-5 ATS record as a favorite. I mean, how can you win by margin if you can't get teams off the field in late downs?
I'm also leaning on an old-school college handicapping angle: Fading ranked teams on the road in conference games against unranked opponents.
COVERS INTEL: The Cougars have allowed opponents to post success rates of 53%, 54%, and 51% over their last three games against Oklahoma State, Utah, and Cincinnati, respectively. Those numbers exclude garbage time and suggest Houston's recent defensive struggles have been even worse than its season-long averages indicate.
Houston vs Colorado Over/Under pick: Under 51.5
Give me the Under 51.5, down to 49.5.
Both offenses have low explosive play rates. According to GameOnPaper.com, the Cougars are in the 31st percentile of explosive play rate on offense, and the Buffaloes sit in the 10th percentile.
We could see long drives ending in field goals or fourth-down coin flips. Houston's offense ranks 101st nationally in red-zone scoring rate against FBS opponents, while Colorado is currently 115th.
The Cougars also struggle to get opponents off the field on third down, despite leading the country in offensive third-down conversion rate.
Houston vs Colorado combo
I'm expecting Houston to come out swinging before Colorado makes life difficult for the Cougars by sustaining drives and exploiting their poor third-down defense.
At the same time, neither offense generates many explosive plays, and both struggle in the red zone, making long, clock-draining drives more likely than quick scores.
Give me an early Houston lead, a Colorado cover, and enough time burned off the clock to keep this game Under the total.
Houston vs Colorado combo
- Buffaloes +9.5
- Under 51.5
- Houston -2.5 first-quarter
Houston vs Colorado prop: Houston -2.5 first-quarter
This is more of a combo leg to boost my payout, but I can get behind a Houston -2.5 first-quarter pick, up to -3.5.
The Cougars have outscored their opponents in the first quarter by at least four points in six of their nine games.
Houston has also covered the first-quarter spread in five consecutive road games dating back to last season.
The Buffaloes, on the other hand, are 97th nationally in first-quarter points per game.
- Top picks: 18-24, -7.40 units
- Combos: 4-38, -21.30 units
Houston vs Colorado odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Houston -9.5 | Colorado +9.5
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (53%) | Under 51.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Houston 75% | Colorado 25%
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Houston vs Colorado weather
Friday's forecast in Boulder calls for temperatures in the mid-40s, no rain, and light winds around 4 mph.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Houston vs Colorado trend to know
The Buffaloes are 9-3 ATS vs. ranked teams under head coach Deion Sanders. Find more college football betting trends for Houston vs. Colorado.
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How to watch Houston vs Colorado today
| Location | Folsom Field, Boulder, CO |
| Date | Friday, Nov. 13, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Houston vs Colorado latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
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