My Baylor vs. BYU prediction targets potential cracks in the Cougars' armor, with the spread and total offering intriguing opportunities.
Kickoff is Saturday, Nov. 14, at 3:30 p.m. ET at LaVell Edwards Stadium, with BYU sitting as a 7.5-point favorite and the total set at 48.5.
Read all about it in my college football picks for Week 11.
TOP PICK
Who will win Baylor vs BYU: Baylor +7.5
I'm on Baylor +7.5, down to +6.5, because it keeps outperforming market expectations — especially on the road — and BYU could be vulnerable to a letdown after losing last week's Holy War.
Baylor is 6-3 straight-up and 7-2 against the spread, including 3-0 ATS on the road with a +23.2 spread differential. The Bears are also 5-1 ATS in Big XII play with a +9.7 spread differential, while BYU has failed to cover three straight since upsetting Notre Dame.
The gap between these teams isn't as wide as the rankings suggest.
GameOnPaper has Baylor 29th nationally in schedule-adjusted net EPA per play and BYU 17th, while Bill Connelly's SP+ makes the Cougars only 5.4-point favorites.
COVERS INTEL: Baylor can neutralize two of BYU's biggest strengths: Converting on third down and its ground game. The Bears rank 34th nationally in defensive passing-down success rate, and 18th in yards per rush allowed.
Baylor vs BYU Over/Under pick: Under 48.5
Give me the Under 48.5, down to 47.5. Rain could make conditions defense-friendly in Provo, but the bigger edge is that both defenses can make the offenses one-dimensional.
Baylor is stout against the run, and BYU ranks 24th nationally in yards per carry allowed. Both defenses also hold advantages in explosive-play rates and line yards per snap against the opposing offenses. That should make sustained drives tougher and limit quick scores.
Both offenses rank 108th nationally in red-zone scoring rate, so they could settle for field goals or flip a coin on fourth downs rather than getting in the end zone.
Baylor vs BYU combo
I'm expecting a rock fight in Provo, with Baylor hanging around from start to finish. BYU's methodical offense and both teams' inability to finish drives should keep the scoreboard from getting out of hand.
Plus, the Bears have consistently punched above their weight on the road, and I'm not convinced the Cougars deserve this much respect from the market.
If Baylor's defense forces BYU to grind out points, there's a good chance all three legs cash together.
Baylor vs BYU combo
- Bears +7.5
- Under 48.5
- Baylor +4.5 first half
- Top picks: 18-24, -7.40 units
- Combos: 4-38, -21.30 units
Baylor vs BYU odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Baylor +7.5 | BYU -7.5
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (53%) | Under 48.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Baylor 30% | BYU 74%
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Baylor vs BYU weather
The weather forecast projects temperatures in the mid-40s, with a strong chance of rain (69.0%) and a 4 mph wind.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Baylor vs BYU trend to know
The Bears have covered all three of their games as an underdog this season by an average of +15.2 ppg. Find more college football betting trends for Baylor vs. BYU.
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How to watch Baylor vs BYU
| Location | LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Baylor vs BYU latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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