Miami enters Saturday's ACC clash as an 82% favorite, but our Duke vs. Miami prediction sees the Blue Devils keeping things close as 13.5-point underdogs.
Manny Diaz faces his former program, while Hurricanes quarterback Darian Mensah takes on the team he left behind. With Miami struggling to create separation, there's more to this noon ET matchup than the moneyline suggests.
For more betting angles, explore our college football picks, see the latest Duke vs. Miami odds on Kalshi, or check out our Week 11 Top Picks and Brad Powers' Week 11 predictions.
TOP PICK
Who will win Duke vs Miami today: Duke +13.5
Play to 13, this is too many points.
The Miami Hurricanes rank first nationally in adjusted offensive EPA per play, but that ranking doesn't fully describe its offense without Malachi Toney. He could turn a routine completion into a touchdown.
With Joshua Moore also out, the Duke Blue Devils can devote more attention to Cooper Barkate and make Darian Mensah sustain drives without that same margin for error. The Blue Devils rank 18th in adjusted defensive EPA allowed and hold opponents to a 40% passing success rate, so they have a credible way to make Miami work for points.
Miami's run defense presents a problem for Nate Sheppard, but Walker Eget ranks 30th in passing EPA per dropback and can attack the weaker part of the Hurricanes' defense.
See our college football picks against the spread for more Week 11 sides.
COVERS INTEL: Miami creates havoc on just 12.2% of defensive plays, 118th nationally. That gives Eget a better chance to keep Duke's possessions alive.
Duke vs Miami Over/Under pick today: Under 55.5
Duke's pass defense ranks among the Top 15 in EPA allowed per dropback, making Mensah work against the strongest part of the Blue Devils' defense.
Miami presents a similar problem for Duke on the ground. Its opponents have produced successful rushes on just 32.8% of attempts.
That doesn't rule out Duke scoring three touchdowns through Eget and Sheppard. It does make quick, repeatable scoring drives harder for both teams.
See our college football Over/Under picks for more Week 11 totals.
Duke vs Miami combo
Miami has had time to reorganize its passing game without Toney, but Duke's defense can make those new passing combinations execute over several downs. The Blue Devils need to avoid giving Mensah short fields, especially with a thinner offensive line putting their own drives at risk.
If the first half stays controlled, Duke can reach 20+ points later without the game becoming a shootout, or Miami opening an insurmountable lead.
Duke vs Miami combo
- Duke +13.5
- Under 55.5
- Under 27.5 1H
Duke vs Miami prop: Duke team total Over 20.5
There’s a sharp divide in Miami’s defensive profile.
It ranks first nationally in rushing EPA allowed, yet sits around 113th in passing EPA allowed per dropback. Duke should use the pass to loosen the front rather than make Sheppard prove he can run through it. Eget can attack that coverage, while Sheppard can still finish possessions near the goal line or catch the ball when Miami commits extra defenders to the box.
Some decent field position with a less effective offense can help, too.
Duke vs Miami smart money
Miami is a strong 84% favorite on Kalshi, but sharp-money activity suggests some bettors see value in Duke keeping things close. One trader wagered $1,000 on Duke +14.5, while another put $2,000 on Under 53.5, pointing toward a tighter, lower-scoring matchup.
- Top picks: 9-6, +2.60 units
- Combos: 4-11, +7.43 units
More Week 11 college football picks and predictions
- Week 11 college football Top Picks for Saturday, Nov. 14: Top pick from every game preview
- College football predictions Week 11: Brad Powers' CFB picks
- Week 11 college football AI predictions
- College football Top 25 predictions Week 11: watchability ratings and picks
- College football Week 11 picks against the spread
- College football Week 11 moneyline picks
- College football Over/Under picks: Week 11
- College football underdog picks and upset predictions: Week 11
- College football player props: Week 11
- Our favorite college football Group of 6 predictions: Week 11
Duke vs Miami odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Duke +13.5 | Miami -13.5
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (52%) | Under 54.5 (48%)
- Moneyline: Duke 18% | Miami 82%
Follow the Duke vs. Miami market prices on Kalshi up to kickoff. See our college football moneyline picks for more win probabilities.
See our college football odds board for the full slate of college football matchups, including our Duke vs Miami matchup.
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Duke vs Miami weather
Around 80 degrees and partly cloudy, with a light southerly breeze. Conditions should have little effect on this one.
See our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Duke vs Miami trend to know
Duke has covered the 1H Spread in 10 of its last 14 games (+5.40 Units / 34% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Duke vs. Miami, and see our college football AI predictions.
or our BET99 promo code COVERS99 if you're in Canada.
How to watch Duke vs Miami
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla. |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026 |
| Kickoff | Noon ET |
| TV | ABC |
Duke vs Miami latest injuries
See our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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