Duke vs Miami (FL) Picks & Props
DUKE vs MIA Picks
NCAAF PicksThe Miami Hurricanes ranked first nationally in adjusted offensive EPA per play, but that ranking doesn’t fully describe its offense without Malachi Toney. He could turn a routine completion into a touchdown. With Joshua Moore also out, Duke can devote more attention to Cooper Barkate and make Darian Mensah sustain drives without that same margin for error
Duke’s pass defense ranks among the top 15 in EPA allowed per dropback, making Mensah work against the strongest part of the Blue Devils’ defense. Miami presents a similar problem for Duke on the ground: its opponents have produced successful rushes on just 32.8% of attempts.
Unstoppable force meets immovable object in Week 11 as Miami's stingy run defense (64.3 rushing yards per game allowed on 2.5 yards per carry) forces Nate Sheppard's utilization to the air. The linebackers are vulnerable in coverage, and Notre Dame capitalized on these deficiencies a week ago when its running backs combined for 76 receiving yards.
Duke should use the pass to loosen the front rather than make Sheppard prove he can run through it. Eget can attack that coverage, while Sheppard can still finish possessions near the goal line or catch the ball when Miami commits extra defenders to the box. Some decent field position with a less effective offense can help too.
Miami has had time to reorganize its passing game without Toney, but Duke’s defense can make those new passing combinations execute over several downs. The Blue Devils need to avoid giving Mensah short fields, especially with a thinner offensive line putting their own drives at risk. If the first half stays controlled, Duke can reach 20-plus points later without the game becoming a shootout or Miami opening an insurmountable lead.
DUKE vs MIA Consensus Picks
50% picking Duke
Total Picks DUKE 191, MIA 190
DUKE vs MIA Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
DUKE
W. Eget
(QB)
o216.5 Passing Yards
226.58 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.1
DIFFERENCE
22.79%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
D. Mensah
(QB)
u269.5 Passing Yards
268.35 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.1
DIFFERENCE
1.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MIA
J. Mallory
(RB)
o49.5 Rushing Yards
59.48 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.0
DIFFERENCE
24.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
D. Mensah
(QB)
u10.5 Rushing Yards
8.92 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.6
DIFFERENCE
21.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
DUKE
N. Sheppard
(RB)
u89.5 Rushing Yards
84.37 UNDER
PROJECTION
-5.1
DIFFERENCE
21.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MIA
M. Fletcher Jr.
(RB)
u70.5 Rushing Yards
69.06 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.4
DIFFERENCE
12.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
C. Barkate
(WR)
o79.5 Receiving Yards
99.64 OVER
PROJECTION
+20.1
DIFFERENCE
27.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
D. Upshaw
(WR)
o43.5 Receiving Yards
55.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.1
DIFFERENCE
25.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
DUKE
J. Hasley
(TE)
o31.5 Receiving Yards
39.48 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.0
DIFFERENCE
25.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
DUKE
N. Sheppard
(RB)
o26.5 Receiving Yards
28.24 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
17.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
M. Fletcher Jr.
(RB)
o11.5 Receiving Yards
12.06 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
15.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
DUKE
B. Keefe
(WR)
u23.5 Receiving Yards
23.18 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
12.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
DUKE
J. Moore
(WR)
u21.5 Receiving Yards
20.63 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
-5.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
E. Lofton
(TE)
o52.5 Receiving Yards
52.98 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-25.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
DUKE
N. Sheppard
(RB)
u3.5 Receptions
3.49 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
0.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MIA
C. Barkate
(WR)
o6.5 Receptions
6.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-1.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MIA
D. Upshaw
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
4.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-3.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MIA
E. Lofton
(TE)
u4.5 Receptions
4.45 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-19.39%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 9-0 in Hurricanes last 9 games on grass.
Over is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 games as a home underdog.
Over is 6-0 in Blue Devils last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 7-0 in Hurricanes last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 games following a straight up win.
ROI Trends
DUKE vs MIA Top User Picks
'DavePaliwoda' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-14.0)
DavePaliwoda is #1 on picking games that Duke is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +5400 units on the season.
'uradonkey' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-14.0)
uradonkey is #10 on picking games that Miami (FL) is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +4800 units on the season.
'Hoosier' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-14.0)
Hoosier is #2 on picking games that Duke is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +4800 units on the season.
'faustobone' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-14.0)
faustobone is #4 on picking games that Miami (FL) is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.
'wordziplay' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-14.0)
wordziplay is #4 on picking games that Duke is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +4300 units on the season.
'All_in_on_RU' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-14.0)
All_in_on_RU is #6 on picking games that Duke is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +3750 units on the season.
'teslaxyz' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-14.5)
teslaxyz is #8 on picking games that Miami (FL) is in with a record of (9-0-0) and +4800 units on the season.
'derekpderek' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-15.5)
derekpderek is #9 on picking games that Miami (FL) is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.