Best NFL Picks Today

This is a low number for Lloyd, and I’d recommend him to Over 29.5 for Thursday Night Football. He closed with a 45.5 rushing yards total in Week 2 and at 50.5 in the season opener, after all. Additionally, while Lloyd has been held to just 3.0 yards per carry and 2.11 yards after contact per attempt, he’s handled a healthy 48.7% of the Green Bay rushes and did post a high-end 87.5 PFF elusive rating in Week 1.

At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are heavy underdogs in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.. De'Von Achane has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.0% since the start of last season, which places him in the 96th percentile among RBs.. When talking about air yards, De'Von Achane grades out in the towering 96th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, totaling a massive 4.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. De'Von Achane ranks in the 99th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a superb 32.3 figure since the start of last season.. De'Von Achane ranks in the 92nd percentile among running backs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 0.20 per game.

This Judkins Over is in play to 46.5 because Carolina has allowed the highest yards per carry (6.31) to opposing running backs while ranking 29th in run defense DVOA through two weeks. The Cleveland rusher also cleared this total in nine of 14 games last season, and he has handled 75% of running back carries with a 66% snap share to start 2026. Judkins’ go-to role positions him to scamper well Over this number in the soft Week 3 matchup.

Grabbing this -5.5 line before Monday Night Football because I’m expecting the Giants to hang with the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, and New York will be an even larger home favorite over Tennessee by Sunday afternoon. The Titans were only on offense for 23:35 against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, and QB Cam Ward has thrown for just 6.2 yards per attempt through two weeks. Tennessee also hits the highway for the first time in 2026, and the new-look G-Men put on an offensive clinic in their season opener at MetLife Stadium. 

I won’t discount the Jaguars too much for having a tough day in Denver. Jacksonville gets to come home for what will be its only outing in Duval County until Week 8. The Patriots looked much better than they were against the corpse of Aaron Rodgers in Week 2. New England managed just 20 points – seven coming from a defensive score – went 4-for-12 on third down and 0 for 1 in the red zone. This Jaguars defense still did a lot right against the Broncos, standing tall on third downs and inside the red zone. I’ll take the home side short of the key number of three.

At the moment, the 5th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (41.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Chargers.. The 4th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.4 per game on average).. The Chargers have played in the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.. Opposing offenses have run for the 10th-most adjusted yards in football (127 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.. The Buffalo Bills defensive ends rank as the 2nd-worst group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

The New York Jets have allowed just 4.0 yards per play, third-best in the NFL, and rank sixth in EPA per defensive play for the season. And while the Detroit Lions have given up an embarrassing 457.5 yards per game on defense, Geno Smith and the New York offense haven't shown any signs that they can even approach that kind of number. I'm backing the Under at totals as low as 47.5 points.

We have two teams that have hit the Over in three of four games this year, leading me to believe that this number is far too low. The Colts' defense is simply the worst in football so far, giving up a total of eight touchdowns through two weeks. Most of these are due to a struggling red-zone unit, which is coughing up a score 67% of the time. So what's been working for Indy? Undeniably, its offense, which is scoring at an 84% clip once they get inside the 20. While yes, the Colts are going up against one of the better defensive units in football, Houston has still allowed over 350 yards of total offense in the early parts of 2026. What does this all add up to? An Over. Play this up to 55%.

The Seahawks will be forced to start backup quarterback Drew Lock in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Washington Commanders defense has given up the 9th-most receiving touchdowns in football to RBs: 0.21 per game since the start of last season.. The Commanders safeties project as the 4th-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

Pittsburgh takes a series step up in competition and this is no longer the Steelers we could count on under Mike Tomlin. Aaron Rodgers is done and Cincinnati is looking like the best two-way team in the NFL, after handling Houston on the road in Week 3. The Bengals have collected eight sacks in the first two games and I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodgers doesn’t make it through Week 3, given the pounding he took in New England.  Oh, and Joe Burrow is absolutely firing on all cylinders. He’s surgical versus zone coverage and will slice up Patrick Graham’s passive playcalling. I'm taking Cincy ML before this price ticks up to two bucks or higher.

At the moment, the 10th-most pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (60.3% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the 49ers.. While Christian McCaffrey has garnered 75.2% of his offense's red zone carries in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller piece of San Francisco's running game near the goal line this week at 61.5%.. Christian McCaffrey has accrued a colossal 19.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among RBs. (This may not seem too impressive, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).. Christian McCaffrey's 40.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in football: 100th percentile for running backs.. With an excellent rate of 0.32 per game through the air (100th percentile), Christian McCaffrey places among the best receiving TD-scorers in the NFL when it comes to RBs since the start of last season.

We're seeing two mediocre offenses against two top-10 defenses in Week 3. The Vikings have had to play mistake-free football on both sides of the ball - their defense has allowed an average of just 12.5 points per game as a result. It's also one of the best red-zone defenses this year, allowing a touchdown on just 12% of trips inside the 20. With positive regression looming for the Bucs' defense against Murray and Co. I'm projecting this total to close closer to 40.5.

Baltimore just allowed New Orleans Saints QB Tyler Shough to throw for 7.4 yards per attempt with a 79.4 completion percentage in Week 2, and now the Ravens go up against a Dallas offense that’s fourth in both EPA per play and offensive success rate ahead of Monday Night Football in Week 2. Of course, there’s no stop on defense for the Cowboys, and the Ravens respectively check in sixth and third in the two highlighted metrics. Finally, I anticipate the trip south to Maracana Stadium to also take its toll on the two defenses in Week 3.

A passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a -3-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Raiders to pass on 60.2% of their chances: the 9th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. While Michael Mayer has garnered 13.7% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Las Vegas's passing offense near the goal line this week at 23.1%.

The projections expect the Denver Broncos to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Right now, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (61.0% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Broncos.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Broncos are expected by our trusted projection set to run 65.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week.. The Denver Broncos have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 58.4 plays per game.. The Los Angeles Rams defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (34.1 per game) since the start of last season.

The Eagles have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing better weather in this game.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Eagles profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.. Jalen Hurts has been one of the leading TD throwers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 1.58 per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in the league vs. the Bears defense since the start of last season (74.0% Adjusted Completion%).. The Chicago Bears defense has yielded the 5th-most TDs through the air in the league: 1.84 per game since the start of last season.