Early NFL Survivor Picks & Strategy: Who to Target in Week 10

 Week 10 presents a tricky slate for NFL survivor picks, with no double-digit favorites and several potential upset spots. The Jacksonville Jaguars stand out as my top target, but a divisional road game brings some risk. I'll also break down a risky Seattle play and two favorites worth avoiding.

For more NFL analysis, check out the latest NFL picks.

Pick	Win Probability
Target: Jaguars	83%
Risky: Seahawks	66%
Avoid: Texans	69%
Avoid: 49ers	69%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Week 10 Survivor Pool first look

There aren't many obvious picks this week, and no team opened as a double-digit favorite. Based on what I've given out so far this year, the Jacksonville Jaguars are my best option despite being facing a divisional foe (Tennessee Titans) on the road. Plus, Jacksonville hosts Tennessee in two weeks, which is probably a better spot to use the Jaguars. 

However, there are safer picks (relatively speaking, of course) in Week 12, such as the Dallas Cowboys hosting the down-and-out Philadelphia Eagles, the Houston Texans hosting the Lamar Jackson-less Baltimore Ravens, and the New England Patriots visiting the winless Los Angeles Chargers after their Week 11 bye.

Also, pay attention to Tuesday's NFL trade deadline, which has been more active in recent years. There might be "buyers vs. sellers" spots to use in survivor, and the team I'm targeting already made a trade-deadline splash this week.

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Teams to target in Week 10

Safe pick: Jaguars (@ Titans)

Jacksonville has a four-game winning streak over Tennessee, including 22- and 34-point blowout victories last season, head coach Liam Coen's first with the Jaguars.

To make matters worse for the Titans, Jacksonville traded for three-time All-Pro safety Jessie Bates III on Monday, strengthening a defense that ranks third in EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com.

Risky pick: Seahawks (@ Raiders)

There's a chance that third-string Seattle Seahawks quarterback Jalen Milroe starts this week, which is why they're my "risky pick."

Regardless, QB Kirk Cousins' days as the Las Vegas Raiders' starter are numbered. Las Vegas is 4-0 straight-up (SU) vs. teams with a losing record this season and 0-5 against teams with a winning record.

Teams to avoid in Week 10

Texans (@ Browns)

The Cleveland Browns defense is different at home, where they are a live dog: They are 8-1 against the spread (ATS) as a home underdog since the beginning of last season.

Also, the Houston Texans are 3-5 SU with losses to the 2-7 Colts, the 4-5 Cowboys at home, and the Giants as 10.5-point home favorites. 

49ers (@ Cowboys)

Granted, this is one of the biggest coaching mismatches in Week 10 in favor of the San Francisco 49ers, but let's see what their practice reports this week because they didn't have WRs Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel this past Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys are 2-0-1 SU and 3-0 ATS as home underdogs since the beginning of last season. 

Week 10 Survivor Pool strategy

The best contrarian option this week is the New York Giants hosting the Washington Commanders on Thursday Night Football. New York is a slight favorite, and the Thursday games usually have lower survivor ownership. However, the Giants have a significant coaching edge, which I factor in more heavily on a short week. Their defense has improved weekly, and Washington has several injuries to its WR corps. 

I'm considering the Buffalo Bills because this is one of the best weeks to use them. The other options are next week when Buffalo hosts the Dolphins, Week 17 when the Bills visit Miami, or in the regular-season finale when the New York Jets come to Orchard Park. But the Bills could rest their starters in Week 18, which makes this week a better option.  

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